Friday, December 24, 2010

Has Pryor entered the Clarett zone at THE ohio sTATe university?

Yesterday, Terrell Pryor along with 4 other players were suspended for 5 games in the 2011 season.  The reason for this has been well documented on the ESPN site and you can read more about it here.  I'm angry about the suspension for a few reasons.
  • I'm angry at players for selling memorabilia to for money.  I don't care if the NCAA says the players weren't properly advised as that seems like a poor excuse.  Every player is told you can't profit from your participation in NCAA sports and selling a trophy is profit - plain and simple - end of story.  The money aspect doesn't bother me as much as the fact that these players don't care enough about the team to at least keep the items until their playing days at the school is over.  
  • Dear NCAA - 5 games?  Seriously?  This is worth 5 games after Cam Newton's dad was shopping him around and you worked with the SEC to make sure he didn't miss a single game?  I think the players should be punished but this seems to be a bit much and 2-3 games seems more fair.
  • Dear NCAA part 2 - You are allowing these TAT5 to play in the Sugar Bowl?  Hypocrisy much?  Seriously?  How can anyone take this organization seriously as I'm guessing that at least 3 of the 5 will now go pro and the Buckeyes will appear to have gotten off scott free.  If you are going to penalize the players you do it immediately starting with the next game.  What's that?  It might hurt a BCS games ratings?  Too f'n bad. 
  Tress should do their job for them and suspend the players anyway.  Then the team might get earn back a bit of respect that these players lost.  In my mind, Pryor has now entered the rarified world of Maurice Clarett.  There is no doubt that both players have talent but both showed an increasing immaturity off the field that ended up costing them playing time.  Buckeye fans overlook a lot of things and they've had blinders for Pryor in the past.  While other fans belittled his accomplishments, the fans were in his corner.  That free ride has ended and if Pryor comes back he better play perfect football or he will get crucified.  Anyone else remember how the fans turned on Steve Bellisari?  It's going to be that bad.

My preference is that he goes pro so the Buckeye fans can move on the the Guiton/Miller era.  No matter what happens we will look back 20 years from now and think ... it's too bad Pryor didn't have more than a 5 cent brain to go with his million dollar athletic ability?

Saturday, December 4, 2010

Who was the best Buckeye team?

I posted the following in response to someone that pointed out that John Cooper lost to both Michigan and the Bowl game 7 times in 13 years.
Excluding Michigan and bowl games, Coop's 1993-98 teams were an amazing 57-5-1. 5-7 vs Michigan/Bowl.

Those teams were among the most talented in Ohio State history and it is too bad they faltered down the stretch. Tresselball is no doubt a conservative gameplan but Cooper combined conservative play with panic and it showed on the field.

The worst for me was the 1996 Michigan game. I was sure they were going to win as they dominated play in the first half. Then a few breaks go Michigan's way and the team just seemed to accept they weren't going to win. At the end it was the quietest I've ever heard the stadium.
Here's the 13 games we didn't win.

11/6/1993 @ Wisconsin (10-1-1) 14-14
11/20/1993 @ Michigan (8-4) 0-28
9/10/1994 @ Washington (7-4)16-25
10/8/1994 vs. Illinois (7-5) 10-24
10/29/1994 @ Penn State (12-0)14-63
1/2/1995 vs. Alabama (12-1) 17-24
11/25/1995 @ Michigan (9-4) 23-31
1/1/1996 vs. Tennessee (11-1) 14-20
11/23/1996 vs. Michigan (8-4) 9-13
10/11/1997 @ Penn State (9-3) 27-31
11/22/1997 @ Michigan (12-0) 14-20
1/1/1998 vs. Florida State (11-1) 14-31
11/7/1998 vs. Michigan State (6-6) 24-28
To that someone responded with:
1969 osu team was THE most talented in osu history - and lost by 2 TDs to um 
I'm really not sure what he was trying to say and thought about remarking with a sarcastic -- Your point? But the more I thought about it it got me to thinking. Is the 1969 team the most talent in OSU history?

So I got out my trusty Excel program and downloaded a bit of information to make the following response.
Not sure you can definitively say the 1968 team was the most talented ever

There's really no good way to judge college talent but a good guide would be how the NFL rated by using the draft.  Keeping in mind that the NFL had 17 rounds back then, the 1968-1970 Buckeyes had 20 players drafted in the NFL (6.7 per year) with 8 (2.7) going in the first 100 picks.

The 1993-1998 Buckeyes had 38 players drafted (6.3 per year) with 22 (3.7) going in the first 100 picks.
The 2002-2006 Buckeyes had 39 players drafted (7.8 per year) with 23 (4.6) going in the first 100 picks.

These were all great Buckeye teams. All had great wins intermixed with a few heartbreaking defeats though I think it is safe to say that Cooper's teams underperformed the most.
I'm not sure if this proves anything but it was something I've been meaning to do for a while. I have all the NFL draft classes in Excel from 1990-2010 and now have added the 1968-1972 classes. Someday I'd like to fill in the gap.

On a totally unrelated note, USC had 27 players drafted from 1968-1970 while Grambling had 25 and Alabama had 3. It would have been interesting to see Grambling play back then. If a BCS system existed at that time they might have gotten an invite.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

On a whim I bought a half season for the 2000-2001 Basketball Bucks

I had never bought season basketball tickets before and haven't since. As I remember the Indiana half was sold out so I had to settle for the other half. Most of the games were in December and mostly forgettable. I didn't mind much because as I remember the Buckeyes had a pretty good team that year and were really fun to watch.

One of the other reasons I bought the basketball tickets was because the football team was so bad. It wasn't that they were a terrible team. They had talent and on occasion showed glimpses of greatness. The problem was they had no heart. At one point during the season I remember someone asking John Cooper why he didn't discipline the offenders. His response was something to the effect that without the players he couldn't win games.

I had always supported Cooper until that season. His losses to Michigan and in the bowls were tough to take but for the most part he had represented the university well. The loss to South Carolina was especially tough and for the first (and only) time in my life I rooted for the Buckeyes to lose. Not because I thought it might increase the chances that Cooper would be fired. It was because this team had disrespected all the great Buckeye teams of the past with their antics. They were playing like a bunch of punks and the head coach stood on the sideline like he couldn't do a thing to stop it. That was in stark contrast to the opposing coach, Lou Holtz. His starting running back had a disciplinary issue before the bowl game and despite the fact it lessened his chance to win he suspended the player for the game and had to start his third string running back instead. As most of you might remember it was just fate that this kid happened to be a former Mr Ohio running back that wasn't deemed good enough to wear the Scarlet and Gray. By the end of the game he had well over over 100 yards and the Buckeyes had suffered an embarrassing loss. The two teams were sharp contrasts of each other. Lou Holtz' South Carolina was what every team strives to be and we had become "The U". In my opinion this was the darkest day in Buckeye football and John Cooper was fired soon afterward.

The Buckeye basketball team was playing well and was a nice diversion from the daily coaching rumors like "Bellotti is on a plane headed for Columbus". Soon though a relatively unknown name started to appear in the newspaper. I knew about Jim Tressel's success at Youngstown State but little else. The more the papers spoke about him the more I liked. He seemed to be a no nonsense guy that said all the right things. His only downside is he'd never been a head coach in Division 1A which was in sharp contrast to most of the other candidates. Still there was something about him.

I distinctly remember the week leading up to the Michigan Basketball game. Work was crazy but there was no way I was going to miss that game since without it I wouldn't have even bought the tickets. The rumors were also strong that the Buckeyes were going to name their new head coach. I didn't think anything of it until the day of the game when it was announced that Jim Tressel was going to be the new head coach. That night there was a buzz in the arena. It was the Michigan game but all anyone could talk about was Buckeye football. It's all a bit fuzzy now but as I remember it the game started and during a timeout I saw people pointing at a man that had just entered the arena and sat down at midcourt about 6 rows up. The buzz got louder. Everyone was asking the same question, "Is that him?" About 2 minutes before the end of the half the man got up and headed for the exit. Spontaneous applause erupted in the arena which I'm sure confused the basketball team because nothing was happening on the court at that moment. I joked with my buddy, "It would be funny if he just needed to goto the bathroom." His response was, "It would be even funnier if it wasn't even him."

Halftime soon arrived and the though everyone was looking for the man he never went back to his seat. I'm sure there was some halftime entertainment but I don't remember it. All anyone was talking about now was the mysterious man. Was it Jim Tressel? Soon after someone came out and placed a microphone just in front of the press area and we saw the man walking to it. The arena erupted in cheers and it was a while before it got quiet enough so he could address the crowd. The rest of the story is now part of Jim Tressel's legend but I'll never forget when he said,

"I can assure you that you will be proud of your young people in the classroom, in the community, and most especially in 310 days in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on the football field."

I can't describe the feeling but I just felt lucky I was there. The whole place was jumping up and down, laughing, crying, and cheering. It was amazing. It was like we had been held captive for 13 years even if we didn't know it and this man was going to lead us to the promised land.
Buckeye Football was back.

For what it is worth the Basketball Bucks beat Michigan that day too.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Can Ohio State pass Wisconsin in the BCS?

The BCS is made up on three equal parts:  The USA Today poll, the Harris poll, and the computer rankings.  After last week the Buckeyes were ranked 7th in the human polls behind #1 Oregon, Auburn, Boise State, TCU, Wisconsin, and #6 LSU.  All these teams either had a win or didn't play.  While yesterday's win may get us a few more votes I seriously doubt we are going to move up from the #7 spot.

That means our only hope is the computer polls.  After last week Ohio State was 13th in the computers while Wisconsin was 12th.  Our overall difference in the BCS was .0584 (.7258 - .6674).  That would mean we'd need to improve .1752 (.0584 x 3) more than Wisconsin in the computer rankings to pass them.  The way the computer part of the BCS works it throws out the highest and lowest score than averages the rest.  That number is then divided by 25.  If you multiply .1752 by 25 you get 4.38.  That means we need to move up 4.38 spots in the computer rankings to pass Wisconsin in the BCS.

Is this possible?

Looking at Sagarin's rating you see that we moved from 17th to 11th while Wisconsin went from 11th to 9th.  That's an improvement of 4 spots.  That's almost the kind of improvement we need but Sagarin's poll was the one with the biggest discrepancy between Wisconsin and Ohio State from last week (6).  The rest had a difference of 2,5,2,-2-1.  I just don't see how the numbers can add up any way for us to make up the difference from last week's results.

The one that that would help us immensely would be for LSU to lose next weekend.  That would give us about .030 improvement from a bump in the human polls.  Then all we'd need is our cumulative improvement to be .0852 or an improvement of 2.6 spots.  That we definitely could do.  In fact we might have done that this week.  I didn't post this on the OZone as I want to see how the computer polls shake out tonight before posting anything definitive but it seems our only hope to goto Pasadena is in the hands of the Razorbacks against LSU.

Monday, November 15, 2010

Best Buckeye Quarterback Ever

Someone posted today that Pryor is the best quarterback the Buckeyes have had other than Troy Smith.  While I like Pryor and he has some time, this is very premature.  That got me thinking.... who is the best quarterbacks for the Buckeyes?


Don Lamka (71) - Don't know him so I'm probably being unfair.
Jim Pacenta (76) - Don't know him so I'm probably being unfair.
Greg Hare (72) - I do know he was a leader that tore down the banner at Michigan.
Steve Bellisari (99-01) - He had all the tools but never the mentality. Bad Offensive line.
Todd Boeckmann (07) - In his Michigan game as we stopped throwing. He was that bad.
Tom Tupa (87) - Great punter but not quarterback. It didn't help Cris Carter was ineligible.
Kirk Herbstreit (91-92) - Decent quarterback on an improving team.  Had lots of moxie.
Kent Graham (91) - Strong arm but never seemed to fit into the system.
Rod Gerald (77) - The next Corny failed to live up to expectations and replaced as a senior.
Craig Krenzel (02-03) - The national championship gives him a bit of a bump.
Stanley Jackson (96-97) - Fans will never forget his 97 Michigan disaster.
Greg Frey (88-90)  - It would have been fun to watch him if the team had more talent.
Jim Karsatos (85-86) - Overlooked by many Buckeye fans.  Great arm.  No mobility.
Cornielus Greene (73-75) - Led the Woody Hayes juggernaut.
Mike Tomczak (82-84) - One of the most complete quarterbacks.
Bobby Hoying (93-95) - Led the Buckeye resurgence in the early 90s.
Joe Germaine (97-98) - Quiet but effective and deceivingly strong arm.
Rex Kern (68-70) - Put here due to his legend.  I never saw him play.
Art Schlitcher (78-81) - All time passing leader.  Post Buckeye career was tragic.
Troy Smith (04-06) - Only Buckeye quarterback to win the Heisman. 

Looking at the list you might notice that there isn't a single player on the list that could be considered an NFL starter let alone a hall of famer.  The closest is Mike Tomczak who played as 16 years in the league mostly as a well paid backup.  Kent Graham was the next best as he spent about 10 years in the league mostly as a backup.  Other than that most Buckeye quarterbacks were only in the league about 3 years and none were consistent starters (Troy Smith might be the exception but it is still early).  That said, I'm rating the quarterbacks based on their college QB play only.


The one question that remains is where would Terrell Pryor (08-10) fit.  As of right now I'd probably put him between Corny and Tomczak but there's still a lot of time to change that rank.

Saturday, October 23, 2010

How good is the Big Ten this year?

I saw a post today and I just had to respond because the Ozone board seemed to be pretty much in agreement with the post.  The writers comment was: 

The Big Ten is loaded this year. The best conference in the country, no doubt. 

OSU, Wisconsin, MSU, and Iowa are top 10 teams, bottom line. Illinois and Northwestern could beat anybody on any given day. Michigan and Penn State are young, but will get better. Nobody beats themselves. The Big Ten will butcher the rest of the country, including the SEC, in the bowls this year.

Hopefully Boise plays TCU for the national title and bowl season turns in to a SEC - Big Ten showdown. Or the Buckeyes (or Wisconsin - gag) get better defensively and face an SEC team for the national title. It sure would be nice to give the south some comeuppance. 
My response:  Love the Big Ten but no way can you say they are the undisputed #1 conference.

I think all of the Big 4 conferences are pretty close this year. Using the polls to determine the best conference is flawed because the Big Ten's top 4 teams have only played twice up to this week. No way do I see Iowa as a top ten team as they just got a loss and I think they will have at least one more this year.

I think the best way to compare conferences is to look at the non conference schedule and especially BCS vs BCS games. In those, the SEC and Big 12 are 8-4, the Pac 10 is 10-4, and the Big Ten is 7-5. Of the Big Ten's 7 wins only Ohio State's victory vs Miami could really be called a decisive win and even that got a bit tainted with the Florida State smackdown of the U.

What will these results mean for our bowl chances? Probably not much. Still, the results thus far make it impossible to say the Big Ten is best conference in the nation. I do hope they prove otherwise in January.

I'm  sure I will get the normal Ozone pile-on treatment but it really surprises me how hard it can be for a large portion of the posters to be openminded.  It usually comes down to the fact that the scores in the Big Ten are so much lower than the rest of the country which is taken to mean that the rest of the country can't play defense.  While there is truth in that comment, the Big Ten fans should also note that many teams in the rest of the country have much better offenses than we usually see.  I do have high hopes that the Big Ten will have a 6-2 bowl season but using the polls as a basis for that expectation is just a recipe for disappointment.

Friday, October 1, 2010

Big Ten Prediction

Just a quick update on my Big Ten predictions.  Here's the results by week:



10/2 10/9 10/16 10/23 10/30 11/6 11/13 11/20 11/27
Illinois LL LL LL LW LW LL LW LW W
Indiana LL LL W LL LL LL LL LL LL
Iowa LW
LL LW LW LW LW LL LW
Michigan LW LW LW
LL LW LW LW LL
Mich State LW LW LW LL LL LW
LW LL
Minnesota LL LL LL LL LL LL LL
LL
Northwestern LW LL
LW LW LL LL LL LL
Ohio State LW LW LW LW LW
LW LW LW
Penn State LL LW
LW LW LW LL LW LW
Purdue
LL LW LL LL LL LL LL LW
Wisconsin LL LW LL LL
LW LW LL LW

Here's the final standings:



League Overall
Ohio State 8 - 0 12 - 0
Michigan 6 - 2 10 - 2
Iowa 6 - 2 9 - 3
Mich State 5 - 3 9 - 3
Penn State 6 - 2 9 - 3
Wisconsin 4 - 4 8 - 4
Illinois 4 - 4 7 - 5
Northwestern 3 - 5 7 - 5
Indiana 0 - 8 4 - 8
Purdue 2 - 6 4 - 8
Minnesota 0 - 8 1 - 11

I feel like I've got Penn State too high but their schedule sets up pretty nice for them.  I'm going out on a bit of a limb with Wisconsin but the injuries to their defense have weakened it further and I think we will see them get beat quite a few times.  I could be way off as they do have a potent offense I'm just not sure the coaching staff can play the aggressive style needed to offset their D.  Illinois is a bit high as well but I just have a feeling they are going to improve.  That could just be the Treseelspeak I've heard all week since the Buckeyes play the Illini this week but it feels right too.  If this happens the league will have 8 bowl qualifiers with Illinois taking the place of Purdue from last year.

Sunday, September 26, 2010

College Football Conference Rankings - Week 4

This week was the final week when teams typically schedule non-conference games and the trends have continued we have seen in previous weeks:



BCS
Other FBS FCS
Total
Week 4 YTD W L W L W L W L
SEC 7 2 11 0 4 1 22 3
Big 12 7 3 20 2 7 1 34 6
Pac 10 (+1) 10 4 4 5 7 0 21 9
Big Ten (-1) 7 5 16 2 11 1 34 8
Mtn West (+1) 4 8 5 5 4 0 13 13
ACC(+1) 3 9 7 2 11 1 21 12
WAC (-2) 4 9 5 7 6 0 15 16
Big East 1 10 4 3 10 0 15 13



BCS
Other FBS FCS
Total
Week 4 W L W L W L W L
SEC 1 0 2 0 0 0 3 0
Big 12 1 1 4 0 2 0 7 1
Pac 10 2 0 0 1 0 0 2 1
Big Ten 0 0 6 2 2 0 8 2
Mountain West 0 0 4 1 0 0 4 1
ACC 2 0 1 1 1 0 4 1
WAC 1 2 1 4 1 0 3 6
Big East 0 4 1 0 2 0 3 4

Big East - I'm actually getting tired of writing the same thing every week but this league continues to be incredibly disappointing.  I'm actually almost to the point where I'm going to start comparing the MAC, Big Sky and Conference USA to them as these leagues might actually be better.  The Big East got one FBS win this week when Connecticut beat Buffalo.  They were 0-4 in their other games which in their defense were close but when you are 1-10 vs BCS schools it's hard to argue.


WAC (-2) - There were only two bright spots for the WAC this week as Boise State beat Oregon State and Nevada beat BYU.  The rest of the league was 0-6 vs FBS teams including 3 vs the Mountain West.  Losing Boise State and Nevada to the Mountain West will widen this gap tremendously in the future.

ACC (+1) - The ACC had a decent week but their 2 BCS wins came against the Big East though Miami's win was very impressive.  4-1 overall was good enough to jump the WAC's horrible performance.  They do have a long way to go to pass the Mountain West.

Mountain West (+1) - 4 of the 5 non-conferences games this week were against the Mountain West and they went 3-1 in those.  The only loss was to future Mountain West member Nevada.  Add to that TCU's thumping of SMU and you've got a conference that is very underrated nationally.

Big Ten - (-1) - The Big Ten is tied for the most non-conference victories right now but they dropped a spot.  The reason is due to the lamest bunch of opponents I have ever seen play a conference in one weekend and the fact that both Purdue and Minnestota managed to lose against these cupcakes.  I'm sure many Ozone fans would rank the Big Ten the toughest in the country.  I can't agree as Iowa and Wisconsin have shown much more weakness than I expected as well as Purdue, Indiana and Minnesota looking to be very bad right now.  I predicted the Big Ten to lose 7 and they've lost 8 so they aren't much behind my expectations but I expect more separation from the top tier teams.

Pac 10 (+1) - I jumped the Pac 10 over the Big Ten because of their their consistent play vs BCS teams.  Even with Oregon State's loss at Boise State, Stanford's pummelling of Notre Dame and UCLA's dismantling of Texas more than made up for it.  This league is hard to predict but I'd be surprised if the league winner wasn't Oregon or Stanford.

Big 12 - Terrible week for Texas but the rest of the league won all their non conference games which keeps the Big 12 at number 2.  It is funny to think that Texas dominates the league so much off the field but struggles on the field.  It certainly should be an interesting final year for the Big 12.


SEC - This league continues to roll with 3 wins in week 4.  They do play a good portion of their non-conference games after week 4 but most of them are pseudo-bye weeks so I can't imagine them losing any more non-conference games this year.

As a Buckeye fan I would like to say the Big Ten is the toughest conference in the country.  At the end of last year its performance seemed to predict great things.  Thus far Iowa and Wisconsin aren't as good as they looked in the bowls, Purdue is worse than I expected and Michigan State/Michigan are playing well.  I predicted the league to lose 7 non conference games and they are currently at 8 losses with 4 games left to play.  It's funny how one game can change the perception of a league but the one difference is the Iowa/Arizona game.  If Iowa pulls it out that game the Big Ten's BCS non-conference record is 8-4 and would have a good argument to be 2nd.

Some Buckeye fans are delusional and actually think the Big Ten is the toughest league because they have 6 ranked teams but that is because they haven't started playing conference games yet.  The truth is the SEC is the toughest league again this year.  The thing is teams change dramatically over the course of a season so everyone gets a chance to knock them from this perch in January.

I may take a look at this in a few weeks if teams have played more conference games but I don't expect them to change as most leagues have played 90% of their non-conference games.

Sunday, September 19, 2010

College Football Conference Rankings - Week 3

We are now through week 3 of the 4 week long non-conference schedule and conference strength is taking shape.  This week I put together a spreadsheet to help me with my power rankings and delved a bit deeper into the numbers:


BCS
Other FBS FCS
Total
YTD W L W L W L W L
SEC 6 2 9 0 4 1 19 3
Big 12 (+1) 6 2 16 2 5 1 27 5
Big Ten (-1) 7 5 10 0 9 1 26 6
Pac 10 8 4 4 4 7 0 19 8
WAC (+3) 3 7 4 3 5 0 12 10
Mtn West (-1) 4 8 1 4 4 0 9 12
ACC (-1) 1 9 6 1 10 1 17 11
Big East (-1) 1 6 3 3 8 0 12 9


BCS
Other FBS FCS
Total
Week 3 W L W L W L W L
SEC 2 0 1 0 1 0 4 0
Big 12 1 0 5 2 0 0 6 2
Big Ten 2 2 5 0 2 0 9 2
Pac 10 4 2 1 2 1 0 6 4
WAC 1 1 2 2 1 0 4 3
Mountain West 1 3 0 3 0 0 1 6
ACC 1 4 2 0 0 0 3 4
Big East 1 2 0 1 1 0 2 3

This list above is in order of how I'd rank them right now based on performance so far.  As you can see there's a few changes in my rankings and I will explain the changes in detail below:

#5 WAC - I'm starting with the WAC because I moved them from 8th in the prior week to 5th this week.  I dismissed them entirely last week but the spreadsheet gave me a little more info and I decided I needed to reevaluate a bit.  I still believe they are a weak conference but in the end results are the only thing that matters.  You certainly could make an argument that the WAC plays worse competition but the numbers support them right now.  The WAC is 3-7 against BCS schools.  The Mountain West is 4-8 (push) and the ACC and Big East are 1-9 and 1-6 respectively.  The reason I rated them ahead of the Mountain West is due to their 4-3 record vs other FCS schools.  The Mountain West is 1-4.  I do believe that the ACC is a much better conference but they need to show it on the field.

#8 Big East - I've harped about it in the past but this league continues to push the bar for bad.  This week 3 teams had a bye but they managed to go 1-3 with only West Virginia beating the ACC's Maryland.  UConn did nothing to help the league rep with a loss to Temple which will no doubt help their application to the Big East if they ever decide to join.

#7 ACC - The league continues to struggle in BCS matchups as Wake Forest and Duke got crushed and the lone win was against by NC State against the equally futile Cincinnati (see Big East).  Virginia Tech did manage to win a game vs. Conference USA's East Carolina though they did trail for a good part of the game.  I know this league is more talented than they've shown but at this point it will be really hard for them to recover from their 1-9 record vs BCS schools.  The only possible redemption is the bowl games though it may be difficult to get many bowl eligible teams with their results thus far.

#6 - Mountain West - The Big East and ACC's struggles are to the benefit of the Mountain West.  Week 3 was tough for them as they only went 1-6 but one of the losses was to Boise State who join the league next year.  Their struggles opened the door for the WAC to pass them (4-3 for the week)

#4 Pac 10 - Pac 10 fans might dispute this rank as they took 2 out of 3 from the Big Ten over the weekend.  All of the games were close and frankly I'm a bit shocked that the Minnesota-USC game was even close.  The tiebreaker for me is the non-BCS games and the Pac 10 went 1-2 with Washington State losing to SMU and California losing to Nevada. 

#3 Big Ten - The Big Ten (9-2) could have made a big statement over the weekend but in my mind neither Wisconsin or Iowa looked like an elite team and this was enough for the Big 12 to move to #2.  The Big Ten could take back the second spot next weekend as the league should win all 11 games vs weak competition.

#2 Big 12 - Nebraska's domination of the Pac 10's Washington continued the Big 12's streak of good performances vs BCS teams.  Baylor and Kansas' poor performances are the Big 12's answer to the Big Ten's Minnesota and Indiana but even worse.

#1 SEC - They were 4-0 out of conference this week with wins vs. Duke, Akron, Furman and Clemson.  None of those teams can be confused with a juggernaut but the SEC will be on top of the heap until someone knocks them off and it doesn't appear possible until the bowl season.  They aren't as strong as they've been in past years but the main issue is youth and I'm sure that will be corrected by bowl season.  If the other leagues want to pass them they have their work cut out for them.

Sunday, September 12, 2010

What's going to happen with the Zooker?

Someone made a comment that Zook was going to be fired by Illinois at the end of the season.  This was my response:

Illinois can't afford to fire him. The state is almost bankrupt and money is scarce at UI.  Zooker's there through 2013.

His contract ends in January 2014.  Only way the school ends his $1.5 million guaranteed salary early is if boosters step up to pay it off early.  They are hemorrhaging money as it is though if attendance declines it is possible firing him might be a bit more attractive. 

Illinois attendance
---------------------
48,097 03
47,852 05
43,445 06
54,872 07
61,707 08
59,545 09

Since Zook was hired attendance has actually increased by over 10,000 per game so he's not done too bad (10,000 x $40/ticket x 7 games = $2.8mm). 

He seems to have a backer in the athletic director who is staying for at least another year.  My guess is the school will work towards a "softer" transition like what happened at Florida State and Bowden.  One thing that Zook is good at is recruiting and he can set up the next regime nicely in the meantime.

Only time will tell if I a right.

The State of College Football - 2 week review

We have finished 2 weeks in college football and although we are only halfway through the non-conference slate a few things are starting to solidify.  A good way to get an idea of the strength of a conference is to see how they did vs BCS conference opponents along with any bad non-BCS losses they may have suffered.  Here's my take by conference in desending order:

WAC - I'm not going to bother looking at this league because this league is basically a western version of the MAC.  They are listed for only one reason - Boise State.  Boise had a nice win over Virginia Tech in the opener and all but guaranteed themselves an undefeated season.  Too bad VT lost to a FCS team a week later.  That will pretty much keep Boise out of the championship game as long as there are at least 2 undefeated or 1 loss teams in the SEC, Big Ten, Pac 10 or Big 12.

Big East (0-4) - Cincinnati lost to the WAC's Fresno State, Connecticutt lost to Michigan, Louisville lost to Kentucky, Pitt lost to Utah, South Florida lost to Florida, and Syracuse got pummelled by Washington.
  • This joke of a league continues to disappoint.  The fact they get an automatic BCS slot is offensive to the other 5 BCS conferences.  They are the answer to the question, "Why should the Mountain West get an automatic BCS slot?"
ACC (0-5) - Florida State got stomped by Oklahoma, Georgia Tech got surprised by Kansas, Miami was outmatched against Ohio State, Virginia lost a close one to USC, North Carolina was shorthanded vs LSU, and last Virginia Tech lost a heartbreaker to Boise State then was embarrassed by FCS James Madison.
  • This league had 5 teams ranked in the top 25 at the beginning of the season but their results thus far have been laughable.  In their defense, North Carolina has a pretty good excuse for losing, Miami is very talented but ran into a tough team on the road, and Virginia was surprisingly close to USC.  Having said that -- those are just excuses and good teams overcome adversity.  It doesn't help the league that Virginia Tech is possibly the biggest laughingstock in college football right now.  The ACC is probably better than the Mountain West but they will be ranked below them until they get a few quality wins.  If Virginia Tech eventually wins the league I will keep them in 6th anyway.
Mountain West (3-5) - Utah had a solid win over Pitt, BYU beat Washington, and TCU had a nice win over Oregon State.  Wyoming had a bad loss to #5 Texas and Colorado State to Colorado, New Mexico got taken to the woodshed by both Oregon and Texas Tech, and UNLV got pummeled by Wisconsin.
  • No huge wins but a solid start for the Mountain West as they continue in their quest to become an automatic BCS qualifier.
Pac 10 (4-2) - Cal crushed Colorado, Oregon overcame a slow start to put the smackdown on Tennessee, USC won a squeeker vs Virginia, Washington crushed the Orangemen, Washington State was embarrassed by Oklahoma State, Oregon State lost a close one to TCU, and UCLA lost to Kansas State.
  • Solid start on the forgotten coast.  Oregon seems to have put the Rose Bowl loss behind them and looks to be the class of the conference.  California and Stanford look pretty good so far as well.  USC is a bit of an enigma but they certainly have the talent.  UCLA and Washington State just look bad but it is early.
Big 12 (-2) (5-1) - Kansas State beat UCLA, Missouri beat Illinois, Iowa State got run over by Iowa, Kansas lost to the FCS's North Dakota State then upset Georgia Tech, Oklahoma crushed the Seminoles dreams, Oklahoma State beat up Washington State.
  • Oklahoma looks to be scary good.  Nebraska/Texas haven't played anyone yet but unranked teams have done well out of conference with the notable exception of Kansas' loss to North Dakota State.  This is shaping up to be a good last season for the Big 12.  A few quality wins Texas or Nebraska would move them up but both have a laughable schedule.
Big Ten (5-3) - Iowa beat Iowa State, Michigan beat UConn and Notre Dame, Northwestern beat Vandy, Ohio State beat Miami, Illinois lost to Missouri, Minnesota lost to FCS South Dakota, Penn State was never in the game vs top ranked Alabama, and Purdue lost to Notre Dame.
  • Despite losing 3 games the Big Ten has looked pretty good thus far lead by Michigan's strong start and Ohio State's shutdown of Miami.  Iowa and Wisconsin have some tough games coming up so that will tell a bit more about the strength of the conference.  Missouri had to feel good about the win over Illinois after they were shunned by the Big Ten.  Minnesota --- a loss to South Dakota?  Really?

SEC (3-2) - Kentucky beat Louisville, Tennessee got run over by Oregon, Vanderbilt lost a close game to Northwestern, LSU beat a shorthanded North Carolina, Alabama crushed Penn State, Mississippi embarrassingly lost to Jackonville State.
  • The SEC hasn't played too many big games and the only thing that keeps them in the top spot is the smackdown the Tide put on the Nittany Lions.  The East looks up for grabs right now as South Carolina appears to be the class of that division.  I assume that Florida will get better but they look bad so far.  There is no doubt in my mind that the quality in the SEC is down from the last 4 years.
The elite teams this season seem to be Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Oregon.  It is too early to tell if Texas, Nebraska, Florida, LSU, Iowa, and Wisconsin can join this group.  Boise State and TCU are certainly in the hunt due to their weak schedules while others like Cal, Stanford, and Michigan could be a surprise once we get to league play.

College football is back.  The next 12 weeks will be fun!

Monday, September 6, 2010

The Speed Line

The Western "Speed" Boundary
While watching the Virginia Tech - Boise State game tonight someone asked if there was such a thing as Boise "speed".  The rule of thumb for speed is South of the Ohio River and West of the Rockies.  Basically you can draw a straight line from the Atlantic to Pittsburgh then follow the Ohio River to where it empties into the Mississippi. Then go directly west until you get to the Rocky Mountains and then north to the Canadian border.

Anything South and West of this line has "speed" and anything North and East of it does not.

This is sometimes confused with the "swagger" line but this line only extends to the Mississippi River and goes straight south to the Gulf.

Boise is west of the Rockies and therefore they have speed. They do not have swagger. Virgina Tech by definition has both speed and swagger.

Saturday, September 4, 2010

Will the Pac 12 follow the Big Ten's lead when they split their divisions?

The Pac 10 has added Colorado and Utah in the summer so the league now has 12 teams.  In the next month they are going to need to decide whether to have a championship game and if they do then they will need to divide into 2 divisions.  It is almost a certainty that they will vote to have a championship game so the big question is how are they going to split the league.

My first thought is that would be easy as geography pretty much determines half the decision.  I can say with pretty much certainty that the league will be split basically North and South with these divisions.

North - Oregon, Oregon St, Washington, Washington St

South - Arizona, Arizona St

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Penn State Possibilities

Usually I try to have a fact based article but this is going to be from my gut.  No doubt it will be opinionated and slanted towards the Buckeyes as I am a Buckeye fan... just getting that out of the way.

One thing that bugs me about the split of Ohio State and Michigan is why is it being done.  It isn't neccessary and it is amazing how many people who are on board who you'd think wouldn't be on board.  The amazing thing is it seems to have been known by most of the higher ups in the Big Ten for a long time.  Look at Jim Tressel's comments at the Big Ten meetings if you don't believe me.  Or Rich Rodriguez.  Both men were asked the question and neither gave very satisfying answers but they make a lot more sense a month later.  You'd think that both coaches would have spoken out against it as the tradition goes back a long long time.  RichRod hasn't been involved with the program for very long so I can believe that perhaps he doesn't care but he could get some cheap fan support if he stood up.  That isn't happening.  It got me to wonder why the entire league is being so political right now.  What are they so afraid of that has gotten them all in lock step?  My theory is two simple words:

Penn State.

OSU Michigan Split Acceptance (Not really)

One thing I keep seeing all these people that come up with proposed divisional split now that it seems likely that Michigan and Ohio State look likely to be split up.  While I still think that ranks up there with prohibition, the Edsel, the Nazi party, and new Coke in terms of all time bad ideas, I figure I should give a little thought to how I think it should be structured.  If there isn't a split I'm in favor of a purely geographic split .. if they feel they need to split up the "Big 3" then move Penn State west and Illinois east.

The thing is they seem determined to split Michigan and Ohio State and if that is the case then what is the best way to split the league?

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Why the Big Ten can't change to a 9 game schedule

It's basic math (for comparisons sake I'm ignoring the fact we will have an additional team as it is easier to compare current apples and apples).

The average gate for the "Little 8" in 2009 was about $2 million.  It's at least double that for the "Big 3".  The non conference game that will be going away will most 99.9% be a home game vs a MAC type team.  A normal Big Ten team pays about an average of around $0.6 million to get these teams to show up.  So by doing some quick math, the average Big Ten Team makes about $2 million per game ((2-0.6)x8) + ((4-0.6)x3) / 11).  That means by going to a 9 game conference schedule they lose 5.5 games or approximately $11 million ($2 x 5.5).  These numbers do not include other game day revenue like concessions or parking or any game day costs but feel pretty confident in claiming that non-gate revenue exceeds the non-gate cost.  In other words, $11 million is a very conservative number.

Compare that with the the benefit ... the league now has more inventory of conference games.  Currently they have 8 conference games and 4 out of conference.  That gives them a total inventory of 88 games (8*5.5) + (4*11).  A 9 game league schedule reduces that to 82.5 games.  Unless the Big Ten is able to charge Rotel a lot more from their ads the money from the Big Ten Network is pretty much fixed.  Any additional money will need to come from ABC/ESPN as will have a better matchup for their viewers.  The Big Ten currently makes $100 million annually from ESPN for 41 football games and 60 basketball games.  Recently I saw that the incremental revenue the league could get by splitting Ohio State and Michigan would net them at best about $2 million per year.  Are we supposed to believe that they can get an incremental $11 million from ESPN by taking 11 non-conference games and changing them to 5.5 conference games?

Another way to look at it is to take 2 average Big Ten teams and ask yourself this question - Is one Purdue vs Michigan State game more bankable than 2 games featuring Purdue vs Ball State and Michigan State vs Central Michigan?  Is it worth another $2 million?  The league would need another $2 million just to break even and I don't think it is possible.

I can make a good argument that a 9 game schedule is good for the league and it's fans.  If you don't believe me then go look at the Big Ten slate the last weekend in September and tell me you are excited to watch any of those games.  The thing is the league recently has made it very clear that money > tradition.  If that is true then they can't possibly move to a 9 game schedule as it goes against key motivation.  To do otherwise would be very hypocritical.

Monday, August 23, 2010

I just can't stop thinking about the possible changes to THE GAME

It gets me all sentimental and puts me in a bad mood.  Today I read an article by Dan Wetzel on Yahoo.

Part of me wishes I didn't read things like that because it makes me so angry that they could screw up something as timeless as THE GAME.

A championship game doesn't need to change a thing.  The Ohio State football season has always been split into 4 parts:

Out of conference
In conference
Michigan
Post Season

What college game had the most future NFL players?

That simple question was raised on the O-Zone forum and I decided to take a crack at answering it.  First a few caveats.  The first thing you need to do is to define what is a NFL player.  Is it someone that plays in a game or is merely being on the roster good enough?  What if they are put on a practice squad -- does that count?  What about players that are invited to tryout - should they count?  The best answer would probably be any player that gets into a game would be considered an NFL player.  The problem is I don't know anywhere that I can find that data along with the player's college and years they attended school.  I do have easy access to the NFL draft information so I decided to define an NFL player as anyone that is drafted by the NFL.

Friday, August 20, 2010

Ohio State - Michigan apocalypse

I've posted my thoughts on how the league should structure a few times and most recently a few weeks ago.  Since then there have been a few comments made from the athletic directors of both schools since that time. Here were the comments from the local papers (link attached) and I'm going pretty much to post them in full as they speak for themselves:

Below the break....

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Will politics kill the BCS?

I'm going to warn you first ... this may be a long post and it may take a while to get back to the title premise.  First I need to explain a few things about how the BCS works.

As I've said in previous posts the BCS is a bit complicated and very political.  Most of this is due to the fact that the non-BCS conferences see the money generated and they want more.  The BCS paid out $142.5 million last year and it was split as follows:

22.2 Big Ten (One automatic bid + one invite (4.5))
22.2 SEC (One automatic bid + one invite(4.5))
17.7 Pac 10 (One automatic bid)
17.7 Big 12 (One automatic bid)
17.7 Big East (One automatic bid)
17.7 ACC (One automatic bid)
24.0 Non-BCS (Annual base payout (9.75) + one invite (9.75) + 2nd invite (4.5))
  1.3 Notre Dame (Annual base payout)
  0.2 Army/Navy (Annual base payout)

  1.8 FCS Conferences (Annual base payout)
-----
142.5 Total Paid out

More after the break....

Saturday, August 14, 2010

Buckskin masochist edition - Most helpless games ever

In Buckeye history there have been many great victories but more often than not we over match our opposition with talent.  I don't think about it much but it has got to be a helpless feeling to come to a game and  suddenly realize that you have no shot to win.  This is a rare occurance at Ohio State so I'm going to list the top 10 most helpless games since 1970.  An emphasis will be on teams we thought were actually good going into the contest and for that reason I'm ignoring John Cooper's first 2 teams (1988 and 1989) and Jim Tressel's first team (2001).  Here's my list with a bit of commentary.  Enjoy the misery after the break!

Friday, August 13, 2010

The Economics of Big Ten Gate Receipts

I saw a post the other day complaining about revenue sharing of gate receipts in the Big Ten.  It was honestly something I never thought about much in the past.  Before I read this article I didn't even know how the Big Ten split gates receipts.  I did know that for non-conference games it is a bidding war of sorts ranging from $500-$800k per game for the top schools.  That's why schools love to play the Buckeyes and why the Ohio Legislature has "encouraged" the Buckeyes to play Ohio universities.

As has been commented on in the past, the Big Ten is extremely equitible when it comes to their member institutions.  At some point they had to figure out how to split gate receipts.  This is a hard thing to do as some schools are more popular than others.  How much should a school get for simply showing up if 90% of the fans in the stadium are rooting for the home team?  In many ways it's a great deal if your school doesn't have a great fan base.  Your home games net you about $300k but you play Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State at their stadiums and are rolling in the money.  It would be great that season but imagine the drop in revenue the next season when you have them at home.

More after the break....

Saturday, August 7, 2010

Mark it down - OSU and Michigan in the same divisions and THE GAME will be the last regular season game of the year.

Mark it down - OSU and Michigan in the same divisions and THE GAME will be the last regular season game of the year.


Why does it seem like everyone thinks it's foregone conclusion that THE GAME is going to move?

Unless I've missed a few press releases all we have are non committal responses by Jim Tressel and RichRod.  Jim Delaney has only said essentially that some things are going to change but that tradition is important.  The AD's from both schools have said essentially the same thing.  I've seen many posts by people worried that no one cares about tradition and that THE GAME is going to move to October.  I seriously doubt it happens and here's why. (after the break).

Thursday, July 22, 2010

2010 Big Ten Predictions

I haven't put a ton of time into this but before the Big Ten meetings I thought I'd put something out.


Big Ten 2010 10/2 10/9 10/16 10/23 10/30 11/6 11/13 11/20 11/27
Illinois L L L W L L W L -
Indiana L L - L L L L L L
Iowa W - W W W W W L W
Michigan W W L - L W L W L
Mich State L W W L L W - W L
Minnesota L L L L L L L - L
Northwestern W L - W W L L W L
Ohio State W W W W W - W W W
Penn State L W - W W W L W W
Purdue
L W L W L W L W
Wisconsin W W L L - W W L W

2010 Prediction:
=================
Ohio State (8-0)
Iowa (7-1)
Penn State (6-2)
Wisconsin (5-3)
Northwestern (4-4)
Michigan (4-4)
Purdue (4-4)
Mich State (4-4)
Illinois (2-6)
Indiana (0-8)
Minnesota (0-8)

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

How will USC fare under sanctions?

As everyone knows, USC was recently given sanctions by the NCAA and someone made the following comment about them on the O-Zone forums:
USC will not recover from these sanctions for a decade. What has not been discussed with respect to the recovery from the early eighties is the scholarship limits which were not this tight at that time. With and 85 limit and a max limit annually of 15 for them, they are going to be majorly depleted.

There is no doubt that the reduction of annual scholarships from 25 to 15 will have the biggest impact on the Trojans.  The question is - will it set the program back a decade?

Sunday, July 18, 2010

The Tide's National Champ hopes

I remember a coach saying something on a radio show a long time ago that has stuck with me.  The interviewer asked him who he thought would win the Big Ten that year and he said something like (not word for word ... it has been a while):
"You can never be sure that some one is going to win but if you want to know the contenders look at a team's quarterback, then the offensive and defensive lines.  If you have veteran leadership in those three areas you will always be a contender.  Most teams have playmakers but they can't do anything without the guys up front.  It is always the teams that get good decisions from the quarterback and control the line of scrimmage that win games and win the league."
The national magazines get hung up on the skill positions but without the guys up front they'd never get the chance.  You can't overcome the losses that Alabama did and not feel the effect the next year.  The idea of "we don't rebuild, we reload" means that your talent level is so far ahead of your competition that you don't need to worry about experienced players.  Ohio State can get away with that using Tresselball in the Big Ten but in the SEC the talent is spread over more teams and one of them will beat the Tide this year.  I wouldn't be surprised if they lost 3 games.

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Best 5 minutes in Ohio State History

The Editor of the O-Zone asked a question of the best 5 minutes in Ohio State's history.  This was in response to Jack Park's assertion that Vic Janowicz's first five minutes vs Iowa in 1950 was the greatest in history.  His performance that day can never be equaled since players no longer go both ways and the rise of specialty kicking has all but eliminated player kickers (coaches won't risk a kicker getting injured).  His question got me thinking about the best games I've seen and the best 5 minute span.  Certainly the last drive against Arizona State was amazing as was about 4 of the games during the 2002 championship run.  The comeback vs Illinois in 1984 was amazing as was the comeback vs Minnesota in 1989 and the one vs 1990 vs Iowa.   These were all amazing wins but none of them had the concentrated goodness that occurred against Notre Dame in 1995.

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Bold Big Ten Prediction

I am a stat geek.  I love looking at statistics to try to find hidden trends or anomolies that don't make sense.  I was playing with an Excel spreadsheet the other day regarding the Big Ten and found a few interesting things.  Here is some facts pulls from the Rivals.com recruiting website when compared with current rosters:




Total * Grad Gone Off * Def * Ath * Gone% RS%
Ohio State 06-07 35    3.6 7 7 9    3.4 11    3.6 1    4.0 25% 40%

08-09 44    3.8
5 19    3.9 16    3.9 4    3.3 11% 49%

Total



28    3.8 27    3.8 5    3.4





Total * Grad Gone Off * Def * Ath * Gone% RS%
Penn State 06-07 44    3.3 7 13 10    2.9 13    3.5 1    2.0 35% 51%

08-09 40    3.0
2 17    2.8 19    3.1 2    2.5 5% 63%

Total



27    2.9 32    3.3 3    2.3





Total * Grad Gone Off * Def * Ath * Gone% RS%
Wisconsin 06-07 39    2.8 1 19 13    3.2 5    2.8 1    2.0 50% 40%

08-09 46    2.8
12 16    2.9 16    2.8 2    3.0 26% 49%

Total



29    3.1 21    2.8 3    2.7





Total * Grad Gone Off * Def * Ath * Gone% RS%
Iowa 06-07 41    2.8 3 12 9    2.8 15    2.8 2    3.0 32% 55%

08-09 44    2.5
16 15    2.8 10    2.2 3    2.3 36% 51%

Total



24    2.8 25    2.6 5    2.6