College Football Conference Rankings - Week 4

This week was the final week when teams typically schedule non-conference games and the trends have continued we have seen in previous weeks:

	BCS		Other FBS		FCS		Total
Week 4 YTD	W	L	W	L	W	L	W	L
SEC	7	2	11	0	4	1	22	3
Big 12	7	3	20	2	7	1	34	6
Pac 10 (+1)	10	4	4	5	7	0	21	9
Big Ten (-1)	7	5	16	2	11	1	34	8
Mtn West (+1)	4	8	5	5	4	0	13	13
ACC(+1)	3	9	7	2	11	1	21	12
WAC (-2)	4	9	5	7	6	0	15	16
Big East	1	10	4	3	10	0	15	13

	BCS		Other FBS		FCS		Total
Week 4	W	L	W	L	W	L	W	L
SEC	1	0	2	0	0	0	3	0
Big 12	1	1	4	0	2	0	7	1
Pac 10	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	1
Big Ten	0	0	6	2	2	0	8	2
Mountain West	0	0	4	1	0	0	4	1
ACC	2	0	1	1	1	0	4	1
WAC	1	2	1	4	1	0	3	6
Big East	0	4	1	0	2	0	3	4

Big East - I'm actually getting tired of writing the same thing every week but this league continues to be incredibly disappointing.  I'm actually almost to the point where I'm going to start comparing the MAC, Big Sky and Conference USA to them as these leagues might actually be better.  The Big East got one FBS win this week when Connecticut beat Buffalo.  They were 0-4 in their other games which in their defense were close but when you are 1-10 vs BCS schools it's hard to argue.


WAC (-2) - There were only two bright spots for the WAC this week as Boise State beat Oregon State and Nevada beat BYU.  The rest of the league was 0-6 vs FBS teams including 3 vs the Mountain West.  Losing Boise State and Nevada to the Mountain West will widen this gap tremendously in the future.

ACC (+1) - The ACC had a decent week but their 2 BCS wins came against the Big East though Miami's win was very impressive.  4-1 overall was good enough to jump the WAC's horrible performance.  They do have a long way to go to pass the Mountain West.

Mountain West (+1) - 4 of the 5 non-conferences games this week were against the Mountain West and they went 3-1 in those.  The only loss was to future Mountain West member Nevada.  Add to that TCU's thumping of SMU and you've got a conference that is very underrated nationally.

Big Ten - (-1) - The Big Ten is tied for the most non-conference victories right now but they dropped a spot.  The reason is due to the lamest bunch of opponents I have ever seen play a conference in one weekend and the fact that both Purdue and Minnestota managed to lose against these cupcakes.  I'm sure many Ozone fans would rank the Big Ten the toughest in the country.  I can't agree as Iowa and Wisconsin have shown much more weakness than I expected as well as Purdue, Indiana and Minnesota looking to be very bad right now.  I predicted the Big Ten to lose 7 and they've lost 8 so they aren't much behind my expectations but I expect more separation from the top tier teams.

Pac 10 (+1) - I jumped the Pac 10 over the Big Ten because of their their consistent play vs BCS teams.  Even with Oregon State's loss at Boise State, Stanford's pummelling of Notre Dame and UCLA's dismantling of Texas more than made up for it.  This league is hard to predict but I'd be surprised if the league winner wasn't Oregon or Stanford.

Big 12 - Terrible week for Texas but the rest of the league won all their non conference games which keeps the Big 12 at number 2.  It is funny to think that Texas dominates the league so much off the field but struggles on the field.  It certainly should be an interesting final year for the Big 12.


SEC - This league continues to roll with 3 wins in week 4.  They do play a good portion of their non-conference games after week 4 but most of them are pseudo-bye weeks so I can't imagine them losing any more non-conference games this year.

As a Buckeye fan I would like to say the Big Ten is the toughest conference in the country.  At the end of last year its performance seemed to predict great things.  Thus far Iowa and Wisconsin aren't as good as they looked in the bowls, Purdue is worse than I expected and Michigan State/Michigan are playing well.  I predicted the league to lose 7 non conference games and they are currently at 8 losses with 4 games left to play.  It's funny how one game can change the perception of a league but the one difference is the Iowa/Arizona game.  If Iowa pulls it out that game the Big Ten's BCS non-conference record is 8-4 and would have a good argument to be 2nd.

Some Buckeye fans are delusional and actually think the Big Ten is the toughest league because they have 6 ranked teams but that is because they haven't started playing conference games yet.  The truth is the SEC is the toughest league again this year.  The thing is teams change dramatically over the course of a season so everyone gets a chance to knock them from this perch in January.

I may take a look at this in a few weeks if teams have played more conference games but I don't expect them to change as most leagues have played 90% of their non-conference games.

College Football Conference Rankings - Week 3

We are now through week 3 of the 4 week long non-conference schedule and conference strength is taking shape.  This week I put together a spreadsheet to help me with my power rankings and delved a bit deeper into the numbers:

	BCS		Other FBS		FCS		Total
YTD	W	L	W	L	W	L	W	L
SEC	6	2	9	0	4	1	19	3
Big 12 (+1)	6	2	16	2	5	1	27	5
Big Ten (-1)	7	5	10	0	9	1	26	6
Pac 10	8	4	4	4	7	0	19	8
WAC (+3)	3	7	4	3	5	0	12	10
Mtn West (-1)	4	8	1	4	4	0	9	12
ACC (-1)	1	9	6	1	10	1	17	11
Big East (-1)	1	6	3	3	8	0	12	9

	BCS		Other FBS		FCS		Total
Week 3	W	L	W	L	W	L	W	L
SEC	2	0	1	0	1	0	4	0
Big 12	1	0	5	2	0	0	6	2
Big Ten	2	2	5	0	2	0	9	2
Pac 10	4	2	1	2	1	0	6	4
WAC	1	1	2	2	1	0	4	3
Mountain West	1	3	0	3	0	0	1	6
ACC	1	4	2	0	0	0	3	4
Big East	1	2	0	1	1	0	2	3

This list above is in order of how I'd rank them right now based on performance so far.  As you can see there's a few changes in my rankings and I will explain the changes in detail below:

#5 WAC - I'm starting with the WAC because I moved them from 8th in the prior week to 5th this week.  I dismissed them entirely last week but the spreadsheet gave me a little more info and I decided I needed to reevaluate a bit.  I still believe they are a weak conference but in the end results are the only thing that matters.  You certainly could make an argument that the WAC plays worse competition but the numbers support them right now.  The WAC is 3-7 against BCS schools.  The Mountain West is 4-8 (push) and the ACC and Big East are 1-9 and 1-6 respectively.  The reason I rated them ahead of the Mountain West is due to their 4-3 record vs other FCS schools.  The Mountain West is 1-4.  I do believe that the ACC is a much better conference but they need to show it on the field.

#8 Big East - I've harped about it in the past but this league continues to push the bar for bad.  This week 3 teams had a bye but they managed to go 1-3 with only West Virginia beating the ACC's Maryland.  UConn did nothing to help the league rep with a loss to Temple which will no doubt help their application to the Big East if they ever decide to join.

#7 ACC - The league continues to struggle in BCS matchups as Wake Forest and Duke got crushed and the lone win was against by NC State against the equally futile Cincinnati (see Big East).  Virginia Tech did manage to win a game vs. Conference USA's East Carolina though they did trail for a good part of the game.  I know this league is more talented than they've shown but at this point it will be really hard for them to recover from their 1-9 record vs BCS schools.  The only possible redemption is the bowl games though it may be difficult to get many bowl eligible teams with their results thus far.

#6 - Mountain West - The Big East and ACC's struggles are to the benefit of the Mountain West.  Week 3 was tough for them as they only went 1-6 but one of the losses was to Boise State who join the league next year.  Their struggles opened the door for the WAC to pass them (4-3 for the week)

#4 Pac 10 - Pac 10 fans might dispute this rank as they took 2 out of 3 from the Big Ten over the weekend.  All of the games were close and frankly I'm a bit shocked that the Minnesota-USC game was even close.  The tiebreaker for me is the non-BCS games and the Pac 10 went 1-2 with Washington State losing to SMU and California losing to Nevada. 

#3 Big Ten - The Big Ten (9-2) could have made a big statement over the weekend but in my mind neither Wisconsin or Iowa looked like an elite team and this was enough for the Big 12 to move to #2.  The Big Ten could take back the second spot next weekend as the league should win all 11 games vs weak competition.

#2 Big 12 - Nebraska's domination of the Pac 10's Washington continued the Big 12's streak of good performances vs BCS teams.  Baylor and Kansas' poor performances are the Big 12's answer to the Big Ten's Minnesota and Indiana but even worse.

#1 SEC - They were 4-0 out of conference this week with wins vs. Duke, Akron, Furman and Clemson.  None of those teams can be confused with a juggernaut but the SEC will be on top of the heap until someone knocks them off and it doesn't appear possible until the bowl season.  They aren't as strong as they've been in past years but the main issue is youth and I'm sure that will be corrected by bowl season.  If the other leagues want to pass them they have their work cut out for them.

What's going to happen with the Zooker?

Someone made a comment that Zook was going to be fired by Illinois at the end of the season.  This was my response:

Illinois can't afford to fire him. The state is almost bankrupt and money is scarce at UI.  Zooker's there through 2013.

His contract ends in January 2014.  Only way the school ends his $1.5 million guaranteed salary early is if boosters step up to pay it off early.  They are hemorrhaging money as it is though if attendance declines it is possible firing him might be a bit more attractive. 

Illinois attendance
---------------------
48,097 03
47,852 05
43,445 06
54,872 07
61,707 08
59,545 09

Since Zook was hired attendance has actually increased by over 10,000 per game so he's not done too bad (10,000 x $40/ticket x 7 games = $2.8mm). 

He seems to have a backer in the athletic director who is staying for at least another year.  My guess is the school will work towards a "softer" transition like what happened at Florida State and Bowden.  One thing that Zook is good at is recruiting and he can set up the next regime nicely in the meantime.

Only time will tell if I a right.

The State of College Football - 2 week review

We have finished 2 weeks in college football and although we are only halfway through the non-conference slate a few things are starting to solidify.  A good way to get an idea of the strength of a conference is to see how they did vs BCS conference opponents along with any bad non-BCS losses they may have suffered.  Here's my take by conference in desending order:

WAC - I'm not going to bother looking at this league because this league is basically a western version of the MAC.  They are listed for only one reason - Boise State.  Boise had a nice win over Virginia Tech in the opener and all but guaranteed themselves an undefeated season.  Too bad VT lost to a FCS team a week later.  That will pretty much keep Boise out of the championship game as long as there are at least 2 undefeated or 1 loss teams in the SEC, Big Ten, Pac 10 or Big 12.

Big East (0-4) - Cincinnati lost to the WAC's Fresno State, Connecticutt lost to Michigan, Louisville lost to Kentucky, Pitt lost to Utah, South Florida lost to Florida, and Syracuse got pummelled by Washington.

• This joke of a league continues to disappoint.  The fact they get an automatic BCS slot is offensive to the other 5 BCS conferences.  They are the answer to the question, "Why should the Mountain West get an automatic BCS slot?"

ACC (0-5) - Florida State got stomped by Oklahoma, Georgia Tech got surprised by Kansas, Miami was outmatched against Ohio State, Virginia lost a close one to USC, North Carolina was shorthanded vs LSU, and last Virginia Tech lost a heartbreaker to Boise State then was embarrassed by FCS James Madison.

• This league had 5 teams ranked in the top 25 at the beginning of the season but their results thus far have been laughable.  In their defense, North Carolina has a pretty good excuse for losing, Miami is very talented but ran into a tough team on the road, and Virginia was surprisingly close to USC.  Having said that -- those are just excuses and good teams overcome adversity.  It doesn't help the league that Virginia Tech is possibly the biggest laughingstock in college football right now.  The ACC is probably better than the Mountain West but they will be ranked below them until they get a few quality wins.  If Virginia Tech eventually wins the league I will keep them in 6th anyway.

Mountain West (3-5) - Utah had a solid win over Pitt, BYU beat Washington, and TCU had a nice win over Oregon State.  Wyoming had a bad loss to #5 Texas and Colorado State to Colorado, New Mexico got taken to the woodshed by both Oregon and Texas Tech, and UNLV got pummeled by Wisconsin.

• No huge wins but a solid start for the Mountain West as they continue in their quest to become an automatic BCS qualifier.

Pac 10 (4-2) - Cal crushed Colorado, Oregon overcame a slow start to put the smackdown on Tennessee, USC won a squeeker vs Virginia, Washington crushed the Orangemen, Washington State was embarrassed by Oklahoma State, Oregon State lost a close one to TCU, and UCLA lost to Kansas State.

• Solid start on the forgotten coast.  Oregon seems to have put the Rose Bowl loss behind them and looks to be the class of the conference.  California and Stanford look pretty good so far as well.  USC is a bit of an enigma but they certainly have the talent.  UCLA and Washington State just look bad but it is early.

Big 12 (-2) (5-1) - Kansas State beat UCLA, Missouri beat Illinois, Iowa State got run over by Iowa, Kansas lost to the FCS's North Dakota State then upset Georgia Tech, Oklahoma crushed the Seminoles dreams, Oklahoma State beat up Washington State.

• Oklahoma looks to be scary good.  Nebraska/Texas haven't played anyone yet but unranked teams have done well out of conference with the notable exception of Kansas' loss to North Dakota State.  This is shaping up to be a good last season for the Big 12.  A few quality wins Texas or Nebraska would move them up but both have a laughable schedule.

Big Ten (5-3) - Iowa beat Iowa State, Michigan beat UConn and Notre Dame, Northwestern beat Vandy, Ohio State beat Miami, Illinois lost to Missouri, Minnesota lost to FCS South Dakota, Penn State was never in the game vs top ranked Alabama, and Purdue lost to Notre Dame.

• Despite losing 3 games the Big Ten has looked pretty good thus far lead by Michigan's strong start and Ohio State's shutdown of Miami.  Iowa and Wisconsin have some tough games coming up so that will tell a bit more about the strength of the conference.  Missouri had to feel good about the win over Illinois after they were shunned by the Big Ten.  Minnesota --- a loss to South Dakota?  Really?

SEC (3-2) - Kentucky beat Louisville, Tennessee got run over by Oregon, Vanderbilt lost a close game to Northwestern, LSU beat a shorthanded North Carolina, Alabama crushed Penn State, Mississippi embarrassingly lost to Jackonville State.

• The SEC hasn't played too many big games and the only thing that keeps them in the top spot is the smackdown the Tide put on the Nittany Lions.  The East looks up for grabs right now as South Carolina appears to be the class of that division.  I assume that Florida will get better but they look bad so far.  There is no doubt in my mind that the quality in the SEC is down from the last 4 years.

The elite teams this season seem to be Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Oregon.  It is too early to tell if Texas, Nebraska, Florida, LSU, Iowa, and Wisconsin can join this group.  Boise State and TCU are certainly in the hunt due to their weak schedules while others like Cal, Stanford, and Michigan could be a surprise once we get to league play.

College football is back.  The next 12 weeks will be fun!

The Speed Line

The Western "Speed" Boundary

While watching the Virginia Tech - Boise State game tonight someone asked if there was such a thing as Boise "speed".  The rule of thumb for speed is South of the Ohio River and West of the Rockies.  Basically you can draw a straight line from the Atlantic to Pittsburgh then follow the Ohio River to where it empties into the Mississippi. Then go directly west until you get to the Rocky Mountains and then north to the Canadian border.

Anything South and West of this line has "speed" and anything North and East of it does not.

This is sometimes confused with the "swagger" line but this line only extends to the Mississippi River and goes straight south to the Gulf.

Boise is west of the Rockies and therefore they have speed. They do not have swagger. Virgina Tech by definition has both speed and swagger.

Will the Pac 12 follow the Big Ten's lead when they split their divisions?

The Pac 10 has added Colorado and Utah in the summer so the league now has 12 teams.  In the next month they are going to need to decide whether to have a championship game and if they do then they will need to divide into 2 divisions.  It is almost a certainty that they will vote to have a championship game so the big question is how are they going to split the league.

My first thought is that would be easy as geography pretty much determines half the decision.  I can say with pretty much certainty that the league will be split basically North and South with these divisions.

North - Oregon, Oregon St, Washington, Washington St

South - Arizona, Arizona St