Thursday, December 13, 2018

2018 college football playoffs using the Australian NRL Finals System

I saw a twitter post by Dan Wetzel that mentioned the NRL finals system.  The system seems complex at first but after studying it I really started to love it.  Granted, this will never happen but it is fun to dream about doing something like this.  Here's the 2018 college football final standing with first-round matchups in parenthesis.
  1. Alabama (home vs #4)
  2. Clemson (home vs #3)
  3. Notre Dame
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Georgia (home vs #8)
  6. Ohio State (home vs #7)
  7. Michigan
  8. Central Florida
I think in real life the system would put Washington in since they won the Pac 12 and also keep Central Florida since they were the highest finisher of the Group of 5.  That would mean Michigan would be eliminated but I'm going to keep the standings as determined by the current system. 

Here's the games and the final score from one iteration at College Football Sim.com.  The home team is the one listed first:
41 Alabama (Alabama was projected winner in 57% of all simulations)
13 Oklahoma
41 Clemson (Clemson was projected winner in 56% of all simulations)
17 Notre Dame
35 Georgia (Georgia was projected winner in 88% of all simulations)
17 Central Florida
23 Ohio State
30 Michigan (Michigan was projected winner in 64% of all simulations)
Just imagine a weekend with these games.  The next weekend would pit the losers of the 1-4 and 2-3 matchups vs the winners of the 5-8 and 6-7 games.  Home teams listed first.
19 Oklahoma (1-4 Loser) (Oklahoma was projected winner in 52% of all simulations)
24 Georgia (5-8 Winner)
10 Notre Dame (2-3 Loser)
19 Michigan (6-7 Winner) (Michigan was projected winner in 64% of all simulations)
The visitor won in both simulations though both would be great games.  That would set up the semifinals with the winners from the 1-4 game in week 1 playing the winner of the opposite bracket from week 2.  The 2-3 winner from week 1 would play the other winner from week 2.
24 Alabama (Alabama was projected winner in 66% of all simulations)
15 Michigan
10 Clemson
20 Georgia (Georgia was projected winner in 70% of all simulations)
I know this seems confusing but it's not too bad once you see it in action (check out the NRL wiki as it explains it well).  Here's the final game played on a neutral field.
24 Alabama (Alabama was projected winner in 55% of all simulations)
30 Georgia 
Wouldn't this be amazing?  I'm not a big SEC fan but this would allow the 5th team a shot at redemption from their championship.  It also reward teams who had the best regular seasons.  The teams that finished #1-#2 would be guaranteed 2 home games.  The teams that finished #3-#6 would get 1 home game.

Just look at the matchups this system created:
  • Ohio State - Michigan
  • Alabama - Oklahoma
  • Clemson-Notre Dame
  • Oklahoma - Georgia
  • Notre Dame - Michigan
  • Alabama - Michigan
  • Clemson - Georgia
  • Alabama - Georgia
  • UCF - Georgia
Can you imagine a season that ending like this?  There is not a dog game among them (except maybe UCF) and I'd bet all these games would get a 10+ share.

Here's the ratings for last year's games bowl playoff system:
  • Peach: 4.6
  • Cotton: 5.3
  • Orange: 6.3
  • Fiesta: 5.7
  • Sugar: 11.7 (Semi-final)
  • Rose: 13.7 (Semi-final)
  • Championship: 15.6
ESPN is currently paying $470 million / year for these 6 bowl games plus the championship game.  How many of these games do people actually want to watch?  What would ESPN pay for 9 games that actually matter?  Would the number double?  I'd bet you could easily figure it at an extra $300 million in revenue and college football would own the month of December.

While this would add 3-4 games for the teams involved, the money would also help them head off a looming issue for the NCAA.
128 teams in Division 1-A x 85 scholarships = 10,880
$300 million / 10,880 = $27,574
My preference for this fund would be to enable the NCAA to make sure all schools can afford to allow their student-athletes go back to school to finish their education if circumstances force them to leave for some reason.  It would also enable the NCAA to pay a stipend for college football players  who graduate based on every year they were on scholarship.  Play football for four years, graduate, and get $100,000 to start the next phase of your life?  You could even add additional for the players that made it to the playoffs and played in these games.  Win - win - win.

I know there are Title IX issues along with a myriad of other things that make this impossible but it's fun to think about.

Wednesday, January 3, 2018

What if national champions - 2010

So I couldn't stop with my last post.  There's a website that simulates game results of past teams based on an algorithm.  I thought it might be fun to play a couple of these playoffs out with a seven game series like baseball (only with home/neutral field restrictions).  Here's 2010:

Boise State (10) at Auburn (1)
Oklahoma (7) at Oregon (2)
Ohio State (6) at TCU (3)
Stanford (4) at Wisconsin (5)

Boise State at Auburn:

Game 1 - BSU 23 : Aub 20 - Kellen Moore throws for 401 yards.
Game 2 - BSU 41 : Aub 21 - Doug Martin runs for 83 while making 5 catches for 58
Game 3 - BSU 56 : Aub 23 - Kellen Moore throws for 423 yards with 4 TDs
Game 4 - BSU 42 : Aub 31 - Kellen Moore throws for  339 and 3 TDs

This was a shocker.  I don't know much about the website's algorithm but I'm sure it wasn't made by an SEC fan.  I ran this another 4 times and Boise won 3 of them.

Oklahoma at Oregon:

Game 1 : Ore 38 : Okl 10 - LaMichael James goes for 209 and a TD
Game 2 : Ore 48 : Okl 17 - LaMichael James goes for 350 and 4 TDs
Game 3 : Okl 27 : Ore 22 - DeMarco Murray runs for 102 and a TD
Game 4 : Okl 24 : Ore 21 - Landry Jones throws for 303 and 2 TDs
Game 5 : Okl 41 : Ore 21 - DeMarco Murray runs for 129-2 TDs and 122 receiving with a TD
Game 6 : Ore 41 : Okl 23 - LaMichael James and Kenyon Barner combine for 258 yds rushing
Game 7 : Ore 58 : Okl 27 - LaMichael James goes for 192 and 4 TDs

Tight series.  James was a beast.

Ohio State at TCU

Game 1 : TCU 28 : OSU   9 - Andy Dalton with 148 yards and a TD in the air.
Game 2 : TCU 23 : OSU 15 - Andy Dalton with a group effort.
Game 3 : TCU 30 : OSU 17 - Andy Dalton with 256 yds passing and a TD.
Game 4 : TCU 38 : OSU 31 - Andy Dalton throw for 220 and 3 TDs.

I can't say this result is especially surprising.  Those last Tressel teams relied on Terrelle Pryor to hide a lot of holes.  TCU had a good defense and a future NFL QB running the offense.

Stanford at Wisconsin

Game 1 : Wis 31 : Stan 6 - Scott Tolzien throws for 253-2 TDs.  John Clay runs for 100-1 TD.
Game 2 : Stan 41 : Wis 33 - Andrew Luck throws for 375 and 2 TDs
Game 3 : Wis 37 : Stan 36 - John Clay and Montee Ball run for 207 yds and 3 TDs
Game 4 : Wis 29 : Stan 28 - Scott Tolzien throws for 20-23-257-1.  Clay and Ball combine for 179.
Game 5 : Wis 22 : Stan 20 - Clay goes for 111.  Ball for 94.

Andrew Luck had a lot of yards but the balanced attack of Wisconsin won out.

Boise State vs Wisconsin

Game 1 : BSU 26 : Wisc   7 - Kellen Moore throws for 28-40-382-2 TDs
Game 2 : BSU 38 : Wisc 22 - Kellen Moore throws for 24-40-264-3 TDs
Game 3 : BSU 43 : Wisc 35 - Kellen Moore throws for 26-35-398-2 TDs
Game 4 : Wisc 38 : BSU 31 - John Clay runs for 172 and 2 TDs
Game 5 : BSU 54 : Wisc 21 - Kellen Moore throws for 28-38-387-7 TDs

Kellen Moore was a beast in college.  If he actually had done this in a college playoff he might have gotten a better shot in the pro's.

Oregon vs TCU

Game 1 : Ore 38 : TCU 22 - LaMichael James runs for 150 and 2 TDs.
Game 2 : Ore 42 : TCU 39 - Darron Thomas throws for 20-26-230-4 TDs
Game 3 : TCU 33 : Ore 28 - Matthew Tucker and Ed James combine for 212 and 3 TDs
Game 4 : Ore 37 : TCU 33 - LaMichael James runs for 141 and 1 TD.
Game 5 : TCU 27 : Ore   9 - Ed Wesley runs for 136 and 2 TDs.
Game 6 : TCU 37 : Ore 27 - Ed Wesley runs for 141 and 2 TDs.
Game 7 : TCU 59 : Ore 14 - Waymon James runs for 141 and 2 TDs.  Dalton passes for 3 TDs.

TCU relies on its running game to come back for the win.

Boise State vs TCU

Game 1 : BSU 45 : TCU 31 - Doug Martin goes 98-2TDs on the ground and 86 receiving with a TD.
Game 2 : BSU 43 : TCU 20 - Doug Martin runs for 108 with 2 TDs.
Game 3 : BSU 34 : TCU 32 - Kellen Moore throws for 352 with 4 TDs.
Game 4 : BSU 42 : TCU 24 - Doug Martin runs for 66 yds with 3 TDs.  Catches 5-68 and a TD.

This certainly wasn't what I expected when I started.  There's no doubt the TV executives would be crying with a Boise State - TCU championship game.

A perfect playoff is almost in our grasp

This season shows us one more time that the college football playoff just isn't big enough.  The main cause is combination of 130 teams, all who have the ability to cherry pick their schedule and so we are left to eye test who should be in the final four.

The ideal number for a playoff is 6 as it gives you 1 team from each conference and a wildcard.  The thing is bye week's are stupid especially when you consider we really don't know who is really deserving.  I do understand the complaints of those that say expanding it that far will harm the regular season but 4 hasn't done that and neither will 8.  After that, I will join the ranks of that reject expanding the playoffs.  College football has the most important regular season of any American sport.  We can't lose that.

The process to get the teams is simple and I've kept my same idea for years as it is the only one that really could work.  The playoff is one week after the college football championship games.  The rules are simple.  The five conference champions get in - One 'Group of Five' team gets in if they are ranked in the top 15 - The remaining teams are pulled from the final College Football ranking - you have to be a conference champ to get home field in the first round.

This year would look like this:

UCF (12) at Clemson (1)
USC (8) at Oklahoma (2)
Wisconsin (6) at Georgia (3)
Alabama (4)  at Ohio State (5)

Clemson, Oklahoma, Georgia, Ohio State, and USC are conference champs.
Home field is assigned from this group based on final ranking.

UCF gets in because they are the top ranked group of five team.
Alabama and Wisconsin are the two highest ranked teams remaining.
Visiting teams assigned based on final ranking.

Under this system Auburn (7) gets left out and I'm sure there would be complaints as they'd beaten Alabama and crushed Georgia.  They have a valid argument but they'd lost in their conference playoff.  While Wisconsin did the same, the committee ranked them higher.  Bottom line - don't lose in the championship game.

Based on what we know from the bowl games these December matchups would have been fun to watch.  My picks are UCF, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Ohio State (call me a homer but the Buckeyes would have played Alabama at home in 20 degree weather).  Ohio State vs UCF would have been interesting but I'd pick the Buckeyes.  Georgia beat Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl setting up a Buckeye-Bulldog final.  I'd love to see that game.

Here's the playoff from 2016:

Western Michigan (15) at Alabama (1)
Oklahoma (7) at Clemson (2)
Michigan (6) at Washington (4)
Ohio State (3) at Penn State (5)

The biggest complaint here would be the rematch between OSU and Penn State.  Other than that it looks pretty standard.  I'd pick Alabama, Clemson, Washington, and Ohio State.  This happens to be the exact final four from that season and we know how it turned out.

Here's 2015:

Notre Dame (8) at Clemson (1)
Ohio State (7) at Alabama (2)
Stanford (6) at Michigan State (3)
Iowa (5) at Oklahoma (4)

This is a much more standard playoff though I'm sure there'd be a push to put Houston (18) in place of Notre Dame (8) for a Group of Five representative.  I'd pick Clemson, Ohio State, Stanford, and Oklahoma.  Clemson and Ohio State in the final and the Buckeyes to win it all.  That team was beastly though the first round matchup at Alabama would be a tough one.

Here's 2014:

Michigan State (8) at Alabama (1)
Mississippi State (7) at Oregon (2)
TCU (6) at Florida State (3)
Baylor (5) at Ohio State (4)

I'd pick the home teams to set up the eventual playoff we got though TCU might beat Florida State.

The question from critics of expansion is whether these games would hurt the regular season.  I think it wouldn't as these people are underrating the value of getting a home field game in the first round which means 1) the conference championship games are important and 2) finishing in the top 4 is important.  One unexpected loss in a conference championship game will scramble everything and fans from other leagues want to know their next opponent.

Let's use 2014 as an example.  Ohio State needed a convincing win vs Wisconsin to be ranked ahead of Baylor/TCU and get the home field.  They got it.  If they didn't they end up on the road at Baylor or Florida State.  But lets assume they somehow lost this game.  Here's the new matchup.

Wisconsin (10) at Alabama (1)
Michigan State (7) at Oregon (2)
Mississippi State (6) at Florida State (3)
TCU (5) at Baylor (4)

That's an entire new set of matchups with only one unexpected loss.  (I love some of these matchups - TCU and Baylor get a rematch to determine their conference champion plus Jameis vs Dak).  The final in this world would probably end up with Alabama and Oregon in the finals with Alabama winning.

You can do the same thing with any conference championship and most of the games at the end of the regular season.  This playoff wouldn't lessen the regular season it would enhance it.

The title of this article calls this a perfect playoff.  I realize there are still people that could complain but of the 4 seasons I reviewed only 1 has a real gripe (Auburn) and they lost in their championship game, which I consider part of the playoffs.

It would be great if we moved to a system like this but until then I will just be happy in my belief that there's an alternate universe where the Buckeyes have won 3 of the last 4 national championships. :P

-----------------

I had to do a couple more because it was fun to consider:

2013:

Central Florida (15) at Florida State (1)
Ohio State (7) at Auburn (2)
Baylor (6) at Michigan State (4)
Alabama (3) at Stanford (5)

This looks like a lot of fun.  Ohio State gets a shot at redemption after failing in the B1G championship game.  As punishment they have to face the SEC champs at home.  My picks - Florida State, Auburn, Michigan State, Alabama.  Same final game.

2012:

Wisconsin (NR) at Notre Dame (1)
Florida State (11) at Alabama (2)
Stanford (6) at Oregon (4)
Florida (2) at Kansas State (5)

This is one of those seasons that shows anything can happen.  Wisconsin was 4-4 in league play but due to NCAA violations neither Ohio State or Penn State could play in the B1G championship game.  Then Wisconsin beat Nebraska making them champions.  It probably would have been Notre Dame, Alabama, Oregon, Florida with Florida and Alabama in the final.  We would have ended up with the same result but with a lot more fun on the way.

2011:

Virginia Tech (11) at LSU (1)
Wisconsin (10) at Oklahoma State (3)
Oregon (5) at Stanford (4)
Alabama (2) at Boise State (7)

This year is a beautiful mess.  The group of Five representative is ranked higher than the B1G or ACC champs so they get the 4th home game.  Can you imagine the furor if #2 Alabama had to travel to Boise?  I'd love that.  The results most likely would be LSU, Oklahoma State, Oregon and Alabama with an Alabama - Oklahoma State final.  That was much better than the LSU-Alabama SEC lovefest we actually got.

2010:

Boise State (10) at Auburn (1)
Oklahoma (7) at Oregon (2)
Ohio State (6) at TCU (3)
Stanford (4) at Wisconsin (5)

This year was pretty straight forward.  The team on the bubble was Arkansas at 8.  It's been a while but I'd pick Auburn, Oregon, Ohio State, and Stanford.  Auburn and Oregon in the final with Auburn winning.  No one was beating Cam that year.