Jared Sullinger was one of the most dominant players in the nation his freshman year. He led the Buckeyes to league title and made it almost to the Final Four before bad luck combined with a hot shooting Kentucky team lead an unexpected exit. That team should have won the championship but they didn't and Sullinger made Buckeye fans happy when he announced he'd be returning for his sophomore season.
His second year started well as he lost 20 lbs, looked quicker, and extended his range. It did worry some that the loss of that much weight would take away his best ASSet from his freshman season but overall Ohio State fans were excited. At the beginning of the season everything looked good but in December Sully sat out a bunch of games. The reports weren't ever clear but varied from plantar facilitis to a herniated disc in his back. Three games later, Sully was back but as the Big Ten season started the dominant presence from the prior year was missing. His numbers were similar but his movements never seemed fluid.
The coaching staff and the Sullingers said little but a few weeks ago it came out that the NBA doctors failed him on their physical and it leaked that the cause was a bulging disc in his back that might need surgery.
This couldn't have been news to the Sullingers. I'm sure Ohio State did a thorough physical as well as whatever agent/draft prep service they were using. At some point the family sat down and decided despite that it was in Jared best interest to go pro.
Tonight Jared Sullinger, who was a probable top 5 pick in 2011, was drafted 21st. The wage scale for rookies was the same in both years so by staying another year Sullinger lost anywhere from $8 - $12 million.
Looking at these numbers I question whether Sullinger should have come out this season. It is a bit more complex than just the above as the sooner he's in the league the sooner he's an unrestricted free agent and the fact that the wage scale has a 3.5% bump in 2013.
The bottom line is his salary for 2012 is $1,306,920. If he could have gotten healthy and proved he was better than he showed in 2011-2, all he would have needed to do was improve 5 spots to make up that in 4 years of his contract. Of course there is always a risk of further injury but it seems to me a pretty good risk to take.
It seems they made a poor decision but that is easy to say in hindsight. It was possible that the doctors could have missed the injury. It was possible a team could have drafted him sooner despite the injury.
I think the more likely scenario is we are going to find the injury is bad enough that it's going to take major surgery with a long rehab which would have made showing improvement next season almost impossible. That's the only thing that makes sense to me but time will tell.
Showing posts with label Ohio State Basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ohio State Basketball. Show all posts
Friday, June 29, 2012
Friday, April 6, 2012
Thomas coming back!!!
Ohio State just released a statement that Deshaun Thomas is coming back next year. This is definitely the right move for him and I am planning a detailed post on why in the future. For now I spent some time putting together my new projections for next years team:
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Where are the points for the Basketball Bucks next season?
This season the team was pretty much dominated by 5 players and right now it appears we will be losing the first 3.
Player
G
Min
PPG
RPG
APG
SPG
BPG
TPG
Jared Sullinger
37
30.4
17.5
9.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.9
Deshaun Thomas
39
31.4
15.9
5.4
0.9
0.4
0.2
1.2
William Buford
39
33.8
14.5
5.0
2.7
0.8
0.2
2.2
Aaron Craft
39
32.2
8.8
3.2
4.6
2.5
0.2
2.2
Lenzelle Smith, Jr.
39
25.4
6.8
4.6
2.0
0.9
0.1
1.2
Others
48.4
12.1
7.6
3.2
1.5
1.4
3.1
75.6
35.0
14.6
7.3
3.2
11.8
These players represent 63% of the points and 56% of the rebounds this season which has many fans questioning whether we can replicate it in 2012-3.
This got me to wondering how next year's team would look if this does happen and so I created a spreadsheet and using each players play per minute this season I extrapolated next year's results based on how many minutes I expect each player to contribute next year.
MIN
PPG
RPG
APG
SPG
BPG
TPG
Aaron Craft
35
9.6
3.5
5.0
2.7
0.2
2.4
Shannon Scott
25
2.8
2.6
4.0
0.8
0.2
1.1
Lenzelle Smith, Jr.
25
6.7
4.5
2.0
0.9
0.1
1.2
Sam Thompson
20
4.0
2.1
1.3
0.7
0.8
1.0
LaQuinton Ross
25
12.8
2.6
0.6
0.5
-
1.2
J.D. Weatherspoon
25
12.1
4.6
0.8
1.1
0.8
1.3
Amir Williams
25
6.4
8.0
0.4
-
3.0
1.9
Evan Ravenel
15
5.0
3.2
0.4
0.5
0.3
1.0
Trey McDonald
5
0.3
0.9
0.2
0.2
-
0.5
200
59.7
31.9
14.8
7.3
5.5
11.6
As you can see most of the statistical categories are similar with the notable exception of blocks and points (hence the understandable concern). The thing is every basketball game has a set number of possessions and the Buckeye tooks 1.38 field goal attempts per minute in 2011-2. Using the stats below equates to about 1.15 field goal attempts per minute, a reduction of about 20%. That's because players that weren't named Sullinger, Buford, or Thomas weren't supposed to shoot this season. Next season that won't be the case and many players will be called on to shoot more often. If anything I expect next year's team to shoot more because it is more athletic. I made a few adjustments to the shots per minute to get it closer to the 1.38 of this year's team while adjusting the field goal percentage to better represent their new role. Here's the results:
MIN
PPG
RPG
APG
SPG
BPG
TPG
Aaron Craft
35
12.7
3.5
5.0
2.7
0.2
2.4
Shannon Scott
25
5.7
2.6
4.0
0.8
0.2
1.1
Lenzelle Smith, Jr.
25
8.5
4.5
2.0
0.9
0.1
1.2
Sam Thompson
20
4.8
2.6
1.3
0.7
0.8
1.0
LaQuinton Ross
25
14.3
3.3
0.6
0.5
-
1.2
J.D. Weatherspoon
25
12.6
5.0
0.8
1.1
0.8
1.3
Amir Williams
25
10.7
8.0
0.4
-
3.0
1.9
Evan Ravenel
15
5.9
3.2
0.4
0.5
0.3
1.0
Trey McDonald
5
0.7
0.9
0.2
0.2
-
0.5
200
75.8
33.5
14.8
7.3
5.5
11.6
This seems to be a better representation of what we can expect next year for the Buckeyes to succeed. The keys are:
Player
G
Min
PPG
RPG
APG
SPG
BPG
TPG
Jared Sullinger
37
30.4
17.5
9.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.9
Deshaun Thomas
39
31.4
15.9
5.4
0.9
0.4
0.2
1.2
William Buford
39
33.8
14.5
5.0
2.7
0.8
0.2
2.2
Aaron Craft
39
32.2
8.8
3.2
4.6
2.5
0.2
2.2
Lenzelle Smith, Jr.
39
25.4
6.8
4.6
2.0
0.9
0.1
1.2
Others
48.4
12.1
7.6
3.2
1.5
1.4
3.1
75.6
35.0
14.6
7.3
3.2
11.8
These players represent 63% of the points and 56% of the rebounds this season which has many fans questioning whether we can replicate it in 2012-3.
This got me to wondering how next year's team would look if this does happen and so I created a spreadsheet and using each players play per minute this season I extrapolated next year's results based on how many minutes I expect each player to contribute next year.
MIN
PPG
RPG
APG
SPG
BPG
TPG
Aaron Craft
35
9.6
3.5
5.0
2.7
0.2
2.4
Shannon Scott
25
2.8
2.6
4.0
0.8
0.2
1.1
Lenzelle Smith, Jr.
25
6.7
4.5
2.0
0.9
0.1
1.2
Sam Thompson
20
4.0
2.1
1.3
0.7
0.8
1.0
LaQuinton Ross
25
12.8
2.6
0.6
0.5
-
1.2
J.D. Weatherspoon
25
12.1
4.6
0.8
1.1
0.8
1.3
Amir Williams
25
6.4
8.0
0.4
-
3.0
1.9
Evan Ravenel
15
5.0
3.2
0.4
0.5
0.3
1.0
Trey McDonald
5
0.3
0.9
0.2
0.2
-
0.5
200
59.7
31.9
14.8
7.3
5.5
11.6
As you can see most of the statistical categories are similar with the notable exception of blocks and points (hence the understandable concern). The thing is every basketball game has a set number of possessions and the Buckeye tooks 1.38 field goal attempts per minute in 2011-2. Using the stats below equates to about 1.15 field goal attempts per minute, a reduction of about 20%. That's because players that weren't named Sullinger, Buford, or Thomas weren't supposed to shoot this season. Next season that won't be the case and many players will be called on to shoot more often. If anything I expect next year's team to shoot more because it is more athletic. I made a few adjustments to the shots per minute to get it closer to the 1.38 of this year's team while adjusting the field goal percentage to better represent their new role. Here's the results:
MIN
PPG
RPG
APG
SPG
BPG
TPG
Aaron Craft
35
12.7
3.5
5.0
2.7
0.2
2.4
Shannon Scott
25
5.7
2.6
4.0
0.8
0.2
1.1
Lenzelle Smith, Jr.
25
8.5
4.5
2.0
0.9
0.1
1.2
Sam Thompson
20
4.8
2.6
1.3
0.7
0.8
1.0
LaQuinton Ross
25
14.3
3.3
0.6
0.5
-
1.2
J.D. Weatherspoon
25
12.6
5.0
0.8
1.1
0.8
1.3
Amir Williams
25
10.7
8.0
0.4
-
3.0
1.9
Evan Ravenel
15
5.9
3.2
0.4
0.5
0.3
1.0
Trey McDonald
5
0.7
0.9
0.2
0.2
-
0.5
200
75.8
33.5
14.8
7.3
5.5
11.6
This seems to be a better representation of what we can expect next year for the Buckeyes to succeed. The keys are:
- Craft has to improve his outside shot and be a threat on the offensive side.
- Sam Thompson needs to get stronger to help on rebounds and on offensive.
- LaQuinton Ross needs to be as good as advertised. Our year might dependant on this.
- JD Weatherspoon is the other wildcard. We know he can make spectacular dunks and hopefully his rebounding and ability to make 10 footers next year is just as dynamic.
- Amir Williams needs to get stronger and be a beast on the boards. His shot blocking ability will make the Buckeyes defense better next year if he can dominate the defensive glass.
Of course this assumes that Thomas won't return and that Matta won't find a last minute recruit for next year. Even if that happens I feel pretty good about next year's team. If Thomas returns the biggest problem will be finding minutes to keep the bench happy as everyone's PPG will go down by about 30%. Either way it should be fun.
Assuming Thomas doesn't come back, it will be interesting to check back in a year and see how close my guesses are to the final results.
Sunday, April 1, 2012
Turn out the lights, the party's over (NOT!)
Last night, Ohio State lost a heartbreaker in the Final Four to the Kansas Jayhawks. It was a game that Ohio State dominated early then lost their shooting touch and slowly allowed Kansas to get back in the game. Kansas was only on top after the first score making it 2-0, then fell behind and only passed the Buckeyes with two minutes remaining. This was a game the Buckeyes certainly could have won but Deshaun Thomas' foul troubles and poor shooting down the stretch doomed them. I'm sure many Buckeye fans will blame the refs, blame Matta coach and blame individual players. That's not fair because the Ohio State players represented their school like champions only to get a little rattled by a talented Kansas squad and at the end the scoreboard read Jayhawks 64, Buckeyes 62.
As you can imagine many Buckeye fans are ready to jump off a cliff. No one feels worse than the players and now is the time to celebrate the team. It would have been nice to hang a championship banner but they should be proud to be able to hang a Final Four banner in the rafters of the Schott. Every tournament 68 teams have dream and only 1 can go away happy. They made it to the last 4 and although I'm sure it is slight consolation today in twenty years they will look back on this season with justifiable pride.
One thing that pessimist do after a loss like this is say things like "Next years team will be lucky to make the NIT!" Comments like that are stupid but they are instigated on by the rumors that a few players are leaving early and others are transferring. I thought I'd look at the Buckeyes roster and give a few thoughts about how I think they will do next year.
Graduating
William Buford - Goodbye WillyB. Buckeye fans had a love/hate relationship with you and you leave school as the 3rd all time scorer. This season your leadership was more important than your play on the court and you will be missed. I hope you find the success in the NBA that the experts have always predicted for you.
NBA Bound
Jared Sullinger - Last season Jared Sullinger surprised everyone by announcing he was coming back this year. In hindsight it was a bad move financially and I'm sure he's doubly disappointed as he really wanted an NCAA championship before he moved on. While there is a chance he might stay, the injury issues he faced in December and his falling draft stock are indications that the smart move is to go now rather than later. You could argue that by staying next year he could improve his status by show scouts how he can play the 4 but the NBA drafts more on potential than results. It would be risky for him to do this which is why he will turn pro.
Deshaun Thomas - We've always known that Thomas wasn't going to play 4 years and it's always felt it would only be a matter of time before he'd explode onto the national scene and leave early. He did that during the NCAA tournament and many are now predicting his exit. The last draft projection I saw had him projected as the 58th pick but I'd be shocked if he hasn't snuck into the first round. I do think he'd be better served to come back next season as he'd be the focus of the team and have a good chance to average 20 points a night. It would be hard for teams to overlook him especially if he continues to make strides on the defensive end which would more than likely make him a lottery pick. I wish him well no matter what he decides.
Transfers
Jordan Sibert - At the beginning of the season Sibert was expected to be a starter and fill the role of outside shooter and defensive stopper. As the season progressed he struggled to the 3 and was eventually phased out by the improving Lenzelle Smith. Sibert hasn't seen any playing time in two months and will like leave. I hope he stays as if he can find his stroke, he has a chance to play significant minutes though that is not likely to happen.
JD Weatherspoon - Weatherspoon has tweeted off and on all year that he's unhappy with his role on the team. After last night's game he made a few more cryptic posts and it seems like he's going elsewhere. This seems short sighted to me as if Ohio State's power forward/center leave there's a huge opportunity for him but he appears to feel that he's been mistreated and wants out. I hope he and Coach Matta can work through it but who knows if it is possible.
Aftermath
Buckeye fans on the forums are bemoaning last night's game and looking at the above seeing that we will only have 8 scholarship players on the team. They are:
Aaron Craft G
Lenzelle Smith G
Shannon Scott G
Laquinton Ross F
Sam Thompson F
Evan Ravenel F
Trey McDonald C
Amir Williams C
Even assuming the worst is true I really like the lineup of
C Williams/Ravenel
F Ravenel/Ross
G/F Smith/Thompson/Ross
G Smith/Scott
G Craft/Scott
The obvious weak spot in this line is at power forward. If Deshaun comes back he would be a perfect fit at the 4. If Weatherspoon took a hard look at this line up he'd that if Thomas does go pro there is no place he'd have a better opportunity to showcase his skills than at Ohio State.
Even if neither of them stay, I like this team. Amir is a shot blocking center that is growing into his body and started to look dominant in stretches this season. Ross supposedly has NBA talent as a shooter on the wing and reports from practice is that he became a leader as the season progressed. Scott was a lot more comfortable and I thought he actually ran the point better than Craft by season's end (excluding defense which is Craft's forte). All three players were ranked in the top 15 last year and should fill in nicely. Add to that a year older/wiser Craft/Smith/Thompson and you have a pretty good team with a very short bench.
One other thing to consider is because the Buckeyes only had 1 senior they have only be recruiting one player. Matta is no dummy though and I'm sure he's realized for a while that he might lose 5 players. Of course he can't say that publicly so Buckeye fans assume our recruiting possibilities are limited. Behind the scenes it wouldn't surprise me if Matta has been lining up recruits once the 4 in question make their decisions. If that happens expect to see 2-3 top 50 players suddenly show interest in the Buckeyes. That's because kids around the country know that Matta is a good coach and has a knack for getting players into the "show".
In the end, I'm sad we lost, grateful for this year's players, and hopeful for the future. With Coach Matta anything is possible.
As you can imagine many Buckeye fans are ready to jump off a cliff. No one feels worse than the players and now is the time to celebrate the team. It would have been nice to hang a championship banner but they should be proud to be able to hang a Final Four banner in the rafters of the Schott. Every tournament 68 teams have dream and only 1 can go away happy. They made it to the last 4 and although I'm sure it is slight consolation today in twenty years they will look back on this season with justifiable pride.
One thing that pessimist do after a loss like this is say things like "Next years team will be lucky to make the NIT!" Comments like that are stupid but they are instigated on by the rumors that a few players are leaving early and others are transferring. I thought I'd look at the Buckeyes roster and give a few thoughts about how I think they will do next year.
Graduating
William Buford - Goodbye WillyB. Buckeye fans had a love/hate relationship with you and you leave school as the 3rd all time scorer. This season your leadership was more important than your play on the court and you will be missed. I hope you find the success in the NBA that the experts have always predicted for you.
NBA Bound
Jared Sullinger - Last season Jared Sullinger surprised everyone by announcing he was coming back this year. In hindsight it was a bad move financially and I'm sure he's doubly disappointed as he really wanted an NCAA championship before he moved on. While there is a chance he might stay, the injury issues he faced in December and his falling draft stock are indications that the smart move is to go now rather than later. You could argue that by staying next year he could improve his status by show scouts how he can play the 4 but the NBA drafts more on potential than results. It would be risky for him to do this which is why he will turn pro.
Deshaun Thomas - We've always known that Thomas wasn't going to play 4 years and it's always felt it would only be a matter of time before he'd explode onto the national scene and leave early. He did that during the NCAA tournament and many are now predicting his exit. The last draft projection I saw had him projected as the 58th pick but I'd be shocked if he hasn't snuck into the first round. I do think he'd be better served to come back next season as he'd be the focus of the team and have a good chance to average 20 points a night. It would be hard for teams to overlook him especially if he continues to make strides on the defensive end which would more than likely make him a lottery pick. I wish him well no matter what he decides.
Transfers
Jordan Sibert - At the beginning of the season Sibert was expected to be a starter and fill the role of outside shooter and defensive stopper. As the season progressed he struggled to the 3 and was eventually phased out by the improving Lenzelle Smith. Sibert hasn't seen any playing time in two months and will like leave. I hope he stays as if he can find his stroke, he has a chance to play significant minutes though that is not likely to happen.
JD Weatherspoon - Weatherspoon has tweeted off and on all year that he's unhappy with his role on the team. After last night's game he made a few more cryptic posts and it seems like he's going elsewhere. This seems short sighted to me as if Ohio State's power forward/center leave there's a huge opportunity for him but he appears to feel that he's been mistreated and wants out. I hope he and Coach Matta can work through it but who knows if it is possible.
Aftermath
Buckeye fans on the forums are bemoaning last night's game and looking at the above seeing that we will only have 8 scholarship players on the team. They are:
Aaron Craft G
Lenzelle Smith G
Shannon Scott G
Laquinton Ross F
Sam Thompson F
Evan Ravenel F
Trey McDonald C
Amir Williams C
Even assuming the worst is true I really like the lineup of
C Williams/Ravenel
F Ravenel/Ross
G/F Smith/Thompson/Ross
G Smith/Scott
G Craft/Scott
The obvious weak spot in this line is at power forward. If Deshaun comes back he would be a perfect fit at the 4. If Weatherspoon took a hard look at this line up he'd that if Thomas does go pro there is no place he'd have a better opportunity to showcase his skills than at Ohio State.
Even if neither of them stay, I like this team. Amir is a shot blocking center that is growing into his body and started to look dominant in stretches this season. Ross supposedly has NBA talent as a shooter on the wing and reports from practice is that he became a leader as the season progressed. Scott was a lot more comfortable and I thought he actually ran the point better than Craft by season's end (excluding defense which is Craft's forte). All three players were ranked in the top 15 last year and should fill in nicely. Add to that a year older/wiser Craft/Smith/Thompson and you have a pretty good team with a very short bench.
One other thing to consider is because the Buckeyes only had 1 senior they have only be recruiting one player. Matta is no dummy though and I'm sure he's realized for a while that he might lose 5 players. Of course he can't say that publicly so Buckeye fans assume our recruiting possibilities are limited. Behind the scenes it wouldn't surprise me if Matta has been lining up recruits once the 4 in question make their decisions. If that happens expect to see 2-3 top 50 players suddenly show interest in the Buckeyes. That's because kids around the country know that Matta is a good coach and has a knack for getting players into the "show".
In the end, I'm sad we lost, grateful for this year's players, and hopeful for the future. With Coach Matta anything is possible.
Friday, March 30, 2012
How does Ohio State rate vs the historical basketball powers?
A little while ago I ranked the top football programs to see if I could identify the "football powerhouses". It was a lot easier than I figured since stadium size and total wins seemed to have a good correlation and since 80% of the national champions come from this group, it is pretty hard to argue with the list. This is much harder thing to do with basketball as one individual can change a programs fortunes for a few years only to see it fade into mediocrity once they leave. A good example of this is Houston during the Akeem/Drexler years and San Francisco during the Bill Russell days. This is made even tougher as coaches can have the same effect like what has happened at Indiana since Bobby Knight left or UCLA since John Wooden.
Powerhouses should transcend individuals but since there isn't a simple way to do it like in football I decided to instead see what programs have done the best over the last 60 years in the NCAA tournament::
Powerhouses
As you can see from the list 5 schools separate themselves on the top - UCLA, Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke, and Kansas. I don't think you'll get much argument from many that 4 of these are powers every season. The issue is UCLA. They've had their ups and downs but most of their rank is due to their success 40 years ago. They really belong in a third tier group I'll discuss below as they've rarely been dominant in the last 20 years.
Lesser Powerhouses
The lesser powerhouse programs are schools that usually have success with a passionate fanbase but don't quite match the success of the first group. I include Indiana, Louisville, Syracuse, Michigan State, and Connecticut in this group. The only issue in this group is that before 2012 Indiana hadn't been to a sweet 16 since 2002 though they seem to be back on track. They were a no doubt powerhouse when Bobby Knight was coach.
The rest
I'm sure fans of schools like Arizona and Georgetown might disagree with being included in this grouping but they both benefited from having Hall of Fame coaches in Lute Olsen and John Thompson. To be a powerhouse you have to do it over a long run and they haven't been able to climb back up to the top since those coaches left.
Ohio State compares favorably in this group especially when you consider there was a period from 1971 to 1992 that they didn't win a conference title. Since then they've had their ups and downs and Thad Matta has definitely now has them in the conversation of sneaking into the lower group of basketball powers. One this that could really go a long way to changing that perception is a national championship and Thad has a great opportunity to get one this season. Even if it doesn't happen this year, if he can stay healthy then it is only a matter of time.
As a side note, I put all the football schools on the list above and highlighted them in RED. Someone noted a few years ago that the money going to the football BCS conferences was ruining college basketball as the smaller schools couldn't compete with the facilities. I'm not sure that is true because while the football powerhouses bring in the most revenue you can see from the chart that most of them struggle on the basketball court. It could be as someone joked that payments to football players leave little to give to the basketball players (just kidding!) but in all seriousness it is more likely that football powerhouses overshadow the basketball program. Players and coaches have egos so it wouldn't surprise me if the best gravitate to schools that don't focus on football so they can be the BMOC (big man on campus). I don't know if that is true but it certainly makes Thad and the basketball Buckeyes success on the court all that more remarkable.
Powerhouses should transcend individuals but since there isn't a simple way to do it like in football I decided to instead see what programs have done the best over the last 60 years in the NCAA tournament::
Keep in mind this info is from before this year's tournament as I wanted to see how Ohio State ranked before this year's success. In addition, there is no doubt this graphic includes too many schools but I wanted to make sure I didn't miss anyone. The methodology was pretty simple -- I took all the schools that made at least 3 NCAA Final Fours (plus a few I figured should be on the list) and then listed their number of Championships, Final Fours, Sweet 16s, and tournament appearances for the last 60 years. Then I created a final column which is simply giving every school 1 pt for an appearance, 2 points for the Sweet 16, 3 points for a Final Four, and 4 points for a championships. That means if a school won a championship they'd get 10 points that season (1+2+3+4). It is no doubt arbitrary but it works for my purposes.
Powerhouses
As you can see from the list 5 schools separate themselves on the top - UCLA, Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke, and Kansas. I don't think you'll get much argument from many that 4 of these are powers every season. The issue is UCLA. They've had their ups and downs but most of their rank is due to their success 40 years ago. They really belong in a third tier group I'll discuss below as they've rarely been dominant in the last 20 years.
Lesser Powerhouses
The lesser powerhouse programs are schools that usually have success with a passionate fanbase but don't quite match the success of the first group. I include Indiana, Louisville, Syracuse, Michigan State, and Connecticut in this group. The only issue in this group is that before 2012 Indiana hadn't been to a sweet 16 since 2002 though they seem to be back on track. They were a no doubt powerhouse when Bobby Knight was coach.
The rest
I'm sure fans of schools like Arizona and Georgetown might disagree with being included in this grouping but they both benefited from having Hall of Fame coaches in Lute Olsen and John Thompson. To be a powerhouse you have to do it over a long run and they haven't been able to climb back up to the top since those coaches left.
Ohio State compares favorably in this group especially when you consider there was a period from 1971 to 1992 that they didn't win a conference title. Since then they've had their ups and downs and Thad Matta has definitely now has them in the conversation of sneaking into the lower group of basketball powers. One this that could really go a long way to changing that perception is a national championship and Thad has a great opportunity to get one this season. Even if it doesn't happen this year, if he can stay healthy then it is only a matter of time.
As a side note, I put all the football schools on the list above and highlighted them in RED. Someone noted a few years ago that the money going to the football BCS conferences was ruining college basketball as the smaller schools couldn't compete with the facilities. I'm not sure that is true because while the football powerhouses bring in the most revenue you can see from the chart that most of them struggle on the basketball court. It could be as someone joked that payments to football players leave little to give to the basketball players (just kidding!) but in all seriousness it is more likely that football powerhouses overshadow the basketball program. Players and coaches have egos so it wouldn't surprise me if the best gravitate to schools that don't focus on football so they can be the BMOC (big man on campus). I don't know if that is true but it certainly makes Thad and the basketball Buckeyes success on the court all that more remarkable.
Monday, March 19, 2012
The heart of basketball
Every year the media raves about a basketball conference being played and touts them as the best in the country. The past two seasons it's been the Big East and before that it was usually the ACC. This season has touted the Big 12 as the best some gave that honor to the Big Ten. It was usually said with the caveat that the tournment would be the final arbiter.
9-2
Big Ten
4
11-5
Big East
4
6-4
Big 12
2
5-3
ACC
2
It's a fair comment that they were dubious because the tournament hasn't been very kind to the B1G in recent years. Michigan State has been the most consistent and Wisconsin/Ohio State have had their runs but in most years the league disappoints. This year the Big Ten has stepped up and so far are exceeding expectations. Here's the results so far:
9-2
Big Ten
4
11-5
Big East
4
6-4
Big 12
2
5-3
ACC
2
I am definitely happy with the results so far but it's a bit early to say the Big Ten exceeded expectations. The 6 teams that were put into the tournament were ranked 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, and 10. Based on the seeding the B1G should have 5 teams make it through the first weekend and be 10-1. Instead, Michigan's first round loss has the conference at 1 game below the seeding expectations though Purdue almost made up for the Wolverines early exit in their games vs St. Mary's and Kansas.
This weekend is the key for the conference to make a statement as by seeding they should go 2-2 in the Sweet 16, then 1-1 in the Elite 8. If they can surpass that this will be a season that fans in the Midwest will look back on many years with pride.
Speaking of pride, here's a map of the remaining participants:
There's 2 teams west of the Mississippi, 1in Florida, 2 in North Carolina, 1 in New York and the other 10 in the Midwest. The midpoint of the Sweet 16 is just off I-75 between Cincinnati and Louisville. That makes sense as the overwhelming favorite is Kentucky with the upstarts Louisville, Cincinnati, and Xavier nearby. Add to that Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Marquette, and Ohio and its a fair bet the national champion will come from this area.
It should be fun to watch.
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