Wisconsin vs Ohio State

I rarely do predictions but that is because 90% of the time it is because Ohio State is favored and then they proceed to pummel the opposition for a victory.  This season has been a struggle and the team has lost a few games I thought they'd win (Miami and Michigan State).  I figured they'd lose the Nebraska game which they should have won.  I did think they'd beat Illinois mainly because all signs pointed to Ron Zook's Illini winning the game and those are the games that Zook always loses.  There were many positive things that came out of that game but there were three things that will play a huge role in the Wisconsin game.

1. The return of Boom - Boom Herron was a huge difference in the Illinois game as he has vision and toughness that was missing from the other running backs.  No doubt the other running backs have talent and are great backups to him but it is nice to have a feature back that we can trust.  This offensive line is possible the best in the last decade and it is a shame that Boom only will get a half season to show his talents.
2. The maturation of Braxton - Braxton Miller didn't do anything particularly well against Illinois and only threw 4 passes with 1 completion.  Most people that didn't see the game would think it was a bad game by him but the reason they didn't pass more was the 30-40 mph winds and the coaches didn't want to risk the young QBs psyche in the swirling winds.  If the game was closer I'm sure they would have passed the ball but the team was content run the clock and win the surest way.  The key for me is that Braxton looked entirely comfortable behind center for the first time all season.  That annoys me a bit because it makes me think that if he'd played more earlier that the Miami and MSU games would have turned out differently.
3. The rise of the Silver Bullets - This years defense is really young and lost 7 starters from last years team and due to injuries have 9 players that are really new.  It takes time for a young defense to learn how to play together and this team is really coming together.  I feel sorry for teams that have to face them next year but they will continue to get better every game this year and as they shut down the previously high powered Illinois offense I expect that to continue.

These were positive signs coming out of the game.  The Buckeyes also have the advantage of a bye week which I expect the coaches used to reflect on the first half of the season and implement changes to better take advantage of their personnel and put together a specific game plan for Wisconsin.

This game is especially important because the Buckeyes should be the favorites in the rest of their games but they need to win this one to have a shot to win the league title.  The coaches know this and can't afford to play passive so I expect no holds barred.

Here are the keys to the game:

• The Ohio State linebackers - Wisconsin isn't very tricky as they expect to run the ball and wear down their opposition.  The one weak area on Ohio State's team is at linebacker as the play has been several levels down from what we've seen in the past.  The players there are big though not especially quick.  That works well against Wisconsin as their running game is a power game so the key is making sure they take good angles.  If they do this they will shut down Wisconsin's running game (meaning <150 yds as you can't shut it down completely).
• Contain Russell Wilson - The defensive line has to stay in their lanes and not let Wilson get to the outside where he can hurt you with his legs.  I expect the Buckeyes to put a safety in the box  to contain the running game and as the cornerbacks will need to stay manned up on the receivers on roll out passes, roll out passes could be especially dangerous.  I expect to see a quite a bit of blitzing to keep Wilson off balance and hopefully contain him.
• The offense needs to keep the defense off the field - Boom Herron has to have a good game and the team needs to have many long drives to keep the defense fresh.  We can't have a let down like happened at Nebraska as the defense folded but the offense didn't do them any favors with the 3 and outs.
• Braxton has to pass the ball - Wisconsin's defense isn't as great as their numbers suggest as their competition thus far hasn't been great (Neb and MSU excepted).  There are holes in this defense and Braxton has to take advantage.  I'm hoping the coaching staff has developed a game plan exclusively for Braxton to take advantage of his talents.  Now that Guiton is the #2 quarterback (and he has similar talents) there is no reason for two gameplans which should allow them to simplify and diversify the offense.  If I was Wisconsin I'd put 9 in the box until Braxton showed he could beat them deep which is why I'd start the game running for the first few plays then start working on the edges with swing passes and out patterns (I know Braxton can do this but we haven't seen one yet).  Once Wisconsin has to play honest, the running game should dominate.

My gut feeling in this game is that people have over rated Wisconsin because they haven't played a single team with a good offense.  Their offense is no doubt good but they haven't played a team with the talent that Ohio State has on defense.  This is absolutely a game that Ohio State can win but it is largely going to fall on the shoulders of the linebackers and Braxton Miller for it to happen.

I'm unsure if the linebackers will be able to hold Wisconsin all game so the Buckeyes are going to need to score points but I do think that Braxton is going to surprise people tonight (Posey would be really nice to have though as I'm still worried about our wide receivers).  Final score - Ohio State 28 - Wisconsin 24

GO BUCKS!!!

Gene Smith putting Luke Fickell as head coach should get him fired

I want to blame Luke for the way the team has played this year but I can't.  He's a young coach that is going through the growing pains that occur for any new head coach.

He inherited a team with a lack of experienced talent at the most important position on the field - quarterback.  He inherited a team with a definite lack of senior leadership with the departure of Pryor and the suspensions of Boom, Adams, and Posey.  He inherited a team that was replacing 7 starters on defense.  He inherited a team that has 22 freshmen or redshirt freshmen in the 2 deep.  He inherited a team that lost its two best minds on the offensive side of the ball (Hazell and Tressel).

This is a team that needed a firm hand on the rudder.  It couldn't afford a new coach to learn on the job.

As Athletic Director Gene Smith should have known all this and done what was necessary to give the team the best chance to succeed.  The problem he faced was finding a coach in June that was willing to come to Ohio State when all signs at the time pointed to a multi year probation.  The flip side is he needed a coach that was willing to come in with the interim tag as Ohio State needed to be able to go out and hire a better replacement once the NCAA sanctions were finalized.

In most cases no decent coach (head coach or assistant) would come to any school under those circumstances.  In spite of this Ohio State had an opportunity because of Glen Mason.  Mason was an Ohio State linebacker in the early 70s and an assistant coach under Woody and Earle Bruce.  He then went on to be a head coach at Kent, Kansas, and Minnesota and lead the last two schools to arguably their finest performances in the last half century.  He applied for the Ohio State job the last two times it was open and went he was passed over he reportedly broke down in tears.  This caused a rift in Minnesota and when he had a losing season in 2006 they parted ways.  He is now a member of the Big Ten Network broadcast team.

Mason's dream job has always been to coach at Ohio State.  Would he have taken an interim job knowing that he'd be replaced at the end of the season?  In a heartbeat.

Ohio State needed a coach that could deal with tough questions from the media and who better than a coach that has spent the last few years working in front of a camera.  Ohio State needed a coach that didn't have emotional baggage of coaching a bunch of men he considered mentors.  Ohio State needed a coach that didn't have preconceived opinions about the players.  Ohio State needed a coach with an offensive philosophy.

Glen Mason fit all those categories and quite frankly was the perfect fit for the situation.  Gene Smith instead decided to put Luke Fickell in an impossible situation (yes Luke could have declined but no true Buckeye could turn down the university when it asks for help) and has possibly permanently damaged his career.  It is Gene Smith's job to be the long term caretaker of the football program and put the team in the best situation to win.  He failed miserably with the hire of Luke Fickell and this more than any failing in compliance is why he should be fired once the dust settles.

JT was a great coach in most every way but micromanagement was his biggest flaw

I just read this article and agree with it almost 100%.

Jim Tressel is a great man and should be remembered as one of the best coaches of all time.  Most of us were annoyed in the past 10 years with his micromanagement but we mostly overlooked it as he gave us wins.

The scary thing is we could have been better if he would have allowed more talented individuals into his inner circle.  During his era the talent level in the rest of the Big Ten declined while Ohio State's talent was as good as ever.  Tressel used that talent to win the surest way and while the results on the field weren't always pretty he won.  The thing is after many of Ohio State's games you were often left with the perception that we made the games a lot harder than we needed.  That was usually because we didn't adapt to what the other defense gave us and instead insisted on running into the strengths of the other team.  We won in spite of that because we outmanned the other team but it did little to prepare us for teams with speed that matched ours.

The fact that Jim Tressel won as many games as he did is a testiment to his ability to micromanage the team but in the end his decision to micromanage punishments were his downfall.  His departure has left a massive hole in the football program and as there is no one on the staff with Jim's ability the only way to fix it is to bring in a new coach and overhaul the whole thing.  The talent level at Ohio State is still great and assuming the NCAA sanctions are light it shouldn't take a decent coach very long to restart the recruiting pipeline that happened in the Tressel era.  Whether they can have the same success on gameday is the big question.

In hindsight that was probably inevitable but I'm sure most people would have never imagined at this time last year that the program would be in this state in a short 12 months.  I for one can't wait for the nightmare to end.

Texas and TCU hold the cards in expansion

A few weeks ago I wrote that Texas A&M's move to the SEC was the death knell to the Big East.  A few days after that I wrote on the Ozone this statement,

The bottom line for the Big 12 is how badly does Texas want to keep the Longhorn Network.  There is no way the Pac 12 is going to accept them and keep that network in tact.  The funny thing is Oklahoma has made no secret of the fact that they want to go to the Pac 12 regardless of Texas decision.  I guess no one told them that while the Pac 12 would love to have Oklahoma's tradition, the only way they would extend an invite to them is if Texas joins as well.  The Big 12 will have a BCS invite as long as Texas is in the league and they from all reports they want to keep it.  The league's survival depends entirely on Texas' decision on the Longhorn network.

 Many people thought this statement about Oklahoma was ludicrous as they are a top 10 program in terms of wins and tradition.  The Pac 12 no doubt would like that but they are more concerned with academics and market share.  The first problem for them is that they cannot move anywhere without taking Oklahoma State as well which dilutes profitability. Also, Oklahoma academics are third tier and their sister school Oklahoma State is even worse.  Finally, Oklahoma has a lot of fans but they are centered in a low market share with many graduates in Texas.  There aren't enough of them to create a regional network like the Pac 12 network plans to do in their current markets.  That wouldn't be the case if Texas joined.

Yesterday a story broke from Oklahoma that they'd stay in the Big 12 if Texas changed the revenue sharing for the Longhorn network and fired their commissioner Dan Beebe who has long been looked at as a Texas lacky.  That was an interesting development considering they had publicly stated for over a month that they were leaving if Texas A&M left.  I should have realized there was more to the story but I wasn't surprised when late last night the Pac 12 announced they weren't expanding.

The funny thing from the announcement is it initially said that the Pac 12 decided not to expand but after the reporters started talking to their inside sources it fell apart mostly because they couldn't get Texas' assurance about the Longhorn Network.  That doesn't mean the Pac 12 isn't going to expand, it just means that both Oklahoma and the Pac 12 are saying that if they are in either league there will be revenue sharing and they need to change their thinking.  It appears they've had to resort to a public statements to make the trustees at Texas see the light.

That doesn't mean they will do it.  Oklahoma has very little bargaining power as Texas knows that they are going anywhere without them.  The Oklahoma State anchor is their achilles heel as no one will take both.  That puts the decision where it has always been -- in Texas.

At this point I'd be shocked if Texas went to the Pac12.  There's just too many reasons not to go, least of all is geographically and the fact that most of the Pac 12 games are shown when Texans have moved on with their day.  I'm sure there aren't many fans that would have enjoyed the 1800 mile road trip to Seattle to watch a conference game (And I thought my dad's 600 mile trip to see Iowa was crazy).

In any event the question in my mind is where does the Big 12 go from here.  My guess is Texas will give the league a few concessions on the Longhorn network and announce a new commissioner but they have a few other obstacles.  Texas A&M is leaving and as I've said before, Missouri is the SEC's best option for the 14th team.  There are rumors out there that the SEC has already given them an invite and Missouri is waiting to see how things play out in the Big 12 before responding.  Don't believe that for a second.  What Missouri is really doing is waiting to see if the league disbands so they won't have to pay the exit fee.  That is probably what is happening with Texas A&M as well.  When it becomes apparent that the Big 12 will survive I think both schools will go despite the exit fee.

That will then mean the Big 12 is sitting at 8 schools of which only Texas has a realistic option to leave.  The question is what happens next and the obvious answer is they will grab at least 2 schools.  As I've said before I think the best choices are TCU and BYU though SMU/Houston/NTexas/Tulane/Rice are possibilities.  Some might think that some of these schools are too small to join the Big 12 but they are forgetting that the fact that the league doesn't share revenues equally so size doesn't matter as it won't impact any other schools revenue.

The other league in turmoil is the Big East and they are hurting from the recent defections of Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC.  The ACC might not be done as they are waiting to see if the SEC takes one of their schools (Florida State/Georgia Tech/Clemson/Va Tech) before making their next move.  If the SEC doesn't take anyone they may stay at 14 as it is much more manageable then 16 though they could take Rutgers/UConn to try to pin down the Northeast market.

That means the Big East has 6 schools in the league with TCU joining as the 7th next year.  That puts TCU in a pivotal spot.  The Big East is talking about expanding but their choices of  Army/ Navy/ Villanova/ Temple/ Central Florida/ Marshall aren't exactly powerhouses so I'd be shocked if they kept their automtic BCS qualifier status.  All it would take is that Texas give TCU assurances that they are committed to the Big 12 there is no doubt in my mind that they will join.  Their defection would pretty much end the Big East as a BCS league and bring them to the equivalent of Conference USA.

How Texas A&M's move dooms the Big East

If you've read any of my past columns you'd know I'm an unabashed Big East hater.  Part of it is due to my allegience to Ohio State and Miami University which means I have an inbred hatred for all things related to the University of Cincinnati.  The other part is the fact that the Big East has one of the coveted automatic BCS slots that they earned through sheer politics and has nothing to do with football prowess.  Be that as it may, I think the recent announcement by Texas A&M that they are moving to the SEC is a death blow to the Big East.


I know it sounds crazy.  Most thing the Big 12 is the conference that is in real trouble but as long as Texas wants to be a part of it they will keep their BCS designation which will attract other teams.  Even if the worst happens and somehow Oklahoma decides leaves Oklahoma State (won't happen), Texas knows it has a good thing in the Big 12.  Texas really doesn't need to move to continue as the biggest moneymaker in college sports and they know it. Even if the SEC really went off the deep end and went to 16 with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Missouri there are a bunch of teams that would jump at the chance to join a league with an automatic bid.

Who are these teams?  The first 4 are SMU, Houston, TCU and BYU.  Plug these schools into a new Big 12 and you'd have a weak league but one filled mostly with schools that really have no other options that could make them nearly as much money.  The exception would be BYU but as long as they were able to continue to broadcast their games on the own network, I'd think they would jump at the chance to be the western division counterpart to Texas' eastern division dominance.

The best scenario for the Big East is that the SEC only takes Big 12 teams.  The thing is there are a few ACC schools that might make good sense like Florida State, Clemson, Ga Tech, or Virginia Tech.  These aren't likely to happen because of politics (Florida doesn't want Florida State to join, Georgia doesn't want Ga Tech, etc, while the Virginia legislature won't let Va Tech leave Virginia) but it isn't out of the realm of possibility.  If the ACC loses a school the only place they are going to look is the Big East which will weaken the league.

If the SEC doesn't come after an ACC school another good option would be to just target a Big East school.  Syracuse, West Virginia, Pittsburgh and possibly Louisville are all targets that would open up additional markets and add television dollars.  Losing any of these schools would be a big loss for the Big East.

In the end I still think the most obvious thing that will happen is the SEC will only add Missouri.  It adds huge population base to the SEC footprint that is currently firmly follows Big Ten/Big 12 football and the politics are simple.  If that happens then that should be good news for the Big East but they aren't out of the woods because of their recent addition of TCU.  That's a problem for the Big East because after BYU, TCU is the most obvious target for the Big 12.

TCU is important to the Big East for a reason that few realize.  After this season the BCS does another recalculation which determines which schools get to participate as an automatic qualifier.  Many people don't know that the last time the BCS gave out the automatic qualifiers that they held a special hearing to give the Big East its slot.  That's because they'd just lost their 3 premier teams in Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College to the ACC so their existing members didn't rank high enough on their own to earn a spot.  Politics got involved and the members didn't want the political hassle with taking it away so they gave them a pass.  Fast forward to today and you have the Mountain West pushing hard for the 6th automatic spot.  After the completion of the 2011 season the BCS will take the results of the last 4 seasons and recalculate the automatic rankings which will determine automatic bids.

This is why TCU is important.  The calculations are based on the leagues current affiliation and last season was putrid for the Big East.  In fact their champion ended up out of the top 25 in the final BCS standings while Boise State and TCU were in the top 5.  That is huge hit in the calculation and will almost certainly mean that the Big East won't automatically qualify unless TCU joins their league.  That's when the politics will start again and as the Mountain West has had a lot more success they have a much better claim on the 6th spot.  That will be even more true if the ACC picks off a Syracuse or the SEC West Virginia.

I'm sure most Big East fans don't even realize the danger but I'm sure the league office is well aware and are working to get assurances of TCU's loyalty but in the end I can't believe they'd turn down a Big 12 offer.  I'm rooting for them to leave as it might be the final blow to break up the Big East so their teams can revert to their proper place in college football.

Dr Saturday is the new Brooks

I'm no fan of Miami and deep down a part of me would like to enjoy the Shapiro allegations but the recent TAT5 scandal makes that impossible. The hundreds of false allegations against the Buckeyes has shown me that most of these guys are clueless when it comes to actual journalism and I don't trust anything any of them. ESPN has been bad but some of the worst hack jobs against Ohio State have come from Matt Hinton and mediots at Yahoo's Dr Saturday. They've been so wrong so often that it makes me wonder how they keep their jobs and it appears they aren't starting off any better in the Miami scandal.

Hinton's recent article ends with this quote:

"But if the death penalty is in the bylaws, it must be on the table here. Practically speaking, if this isn't a death penalty case, then the death penalty no longer exists."

Really Matt? Do you even know anything about the death penalty? First, the NCAA doesn't call it the death penalty, they call it the repeat violator clause which should give you a clue how it works but here's the relevant part of the NCAA statute on the "death penalty":

19.5.2.3 - An institution shall be considered a “repeat” violator if the Committee on Infractions finds that a major violation has occurred within five years of the starting date of a major penalty. For this provision to apply, at least one major violation must have occurred within five years after the starting date of the penalties in the previous case. It shall not be necessary that the Committee on Infractions’ hearing be conducted or its report issued within the five-year period.

In other words, to be a repeat violator you have had to have committed a major violation within 5 years of the start of the penalties from another major violation.

When was the date of Miami's last major penalty? Dec 1, 1995 or almost 16 years ago. Even Shapiro says he didn't start funneling money to players until 2002 which means the death penalty isn't possible in the Miami case even if every allegation from a man charged with fraud is true and you ignore the NCAA's statute of limitations.

Next time I wish these guys would do a little research like their brethren on the Yahoo investigative side before they publish anything. I'm sure that won't happen but a guy can dream.

I shouldn't post the link but here it is if you feel the need....

Link: http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday/post/For-Miami-booster-s-bombshell-means-it-s-time-t?ur

Why did Smith's opinion of Tressel change.

The editor of the Ozone wrote an open letter to Gene Smith that basically were calling him out for not getting invited to last week's press conference.  You can read it here.  My thoughts?

 There are legitimate reasons to be upset at the handling of the situation since the beginning but you write an open letter because of an impromptu press conference?  Seriously?

Despite being a bit frivolous, the article does ask a few good questions, most notably, why did Smith's opinion of Tressel change?

I've always assumed that Gene Smith's initial issue with Jim Tressel was that JT never apologized.  You know that Tressel had to promise this before March's press conference or it wouldn't have been included in the NCAA filing.  Keep in mind that Smith spoke first then Gee and finally Tressel.  Once they both unequivocally endorsed Tressel it was really too late to take it back when Tressel gave his rambling speech that had nothing resembling an apology.  I know Smith and Tressel sat down a few days after the press conference so Smith could instruct Tressel on what he was expecting in an apology but what I saw over the following weeks wasn't any better.*

The apology request disappeared afterward so I always assumed that Smith told Tressel to hold off for the August meetings for a firm statement of responsibility.  About 6 weeks after the March press conference, Smith had an odd conversation with a member of the press that made it obvious that he and JT weren't seeing eye to eye.  In hindsight my suspicion is that time passed the gulf between the two widened from not agreeing about an apology to not agreeing about compliance.

Why would it widen?

One constant of most high level managers is they all have large ego's and people with ego's have a high opinion of their own ideas.  Another constant is the longer someone has been in an organization, the tougher it is for that person to change.  As change is constant in any organization, turf wars are the inevitable result.

When the Compliance Group came back with their recommendations my suspicion is their proposal included a lot of things that would take away a lot of the free reign that Jim Tressel had grown used to over his last 20+ years of coaching.  I know Andy Geiger recommended changes to football compliance so this isn't exactly a new idea.  His long tenure would have allowed that to happen pretty easily but his abrupt departure left the job undone.  When Gene Smith arrived he was in a weak position to implement change in the football program.  Some might say -- well he's the boss and it is his call.  You need to keep in mind that any change in policy still needs to have approval from Smith's bosses and he really was in a weak position to implement change in a program that was winning league championships every year.  All it would have taken was a phone call from Tressel to a few of the football friendly board members and any changes would have been tabled.  I have no doubt that Smith saw the TAT5 situation as an opportunity to improve compliance and when they were told to Jim Tressel he pushed back hard.  At some point Smith insisted and Tressel declined to comply so it went to Gordon Gee and the board. 

Of course all that is conjecture and  all we know is Smith supported Jim Tressel in March then asked for his resignation in May.  One hint we do know is when recently asked how long Smith felt he had spoken too strongly in Tressel's defense, he gave a one word answer - "Days".

I do know the answer to one question from the article - Why has Gene Smith never publicly spoken as to why he changed his mind?  The answer is simple - There is nothing to be gained from airing dirty laundry inside the program.

* "I'm sorry for what Buckeye fans are going through" is not an apology for the act.