College football alignment–2 years from now

 

Something I spoke about back in 2010 was a fair solution to college football.  I split the country into 5 quadrants and created 12 team leagues with another 12 teams set up as the lower division.  The thought was to create a ‘socialist’ version of college football where everyone is included but the best teams would play one another.

This will never happen because there is no reason the have’s need to share with the ‘have-nots’.  What has happened since then has proven this thought as the Big 5 have fleeced the other conferences for their best teams.  Trying to predict how college football will look in 5 years is still a fun exercise and I thought I’d take a look at something similar using the changes from the last year.

Current members are in black, teams leaving are in red, and teams joining are in blue.

If there is one guarantee it is the above will not happen exactly as I have it.  It is not out of the realm of possibility that something like this will occur.  The reason is the Big Ten’s drive to add additional markets and the SEC moves to block.  It is also in the Big 12’s interest to expand by at least two teams so they can have a championship game.  Here’s how I see something like the above happening.

The B1G added two teams in the ACC – Virginia and Georgia Tech.  That move encourages the Big 12 to move on Clemson and Florida State who they’ve coveted since last summer.  The SEC moves into the ACC and grabs a North Carolina team along with Virginia Tech expanding their footprint (I used NC St as I think NC would prefer the B1G if they have to join another conference).  When one of the North Carolina schools leaves the ACC it will be the death knell of the conference and all schools will be looking for options.  The Big Ten will pick up North Carolina and Notre Dame will finally join the league (though the B12 is a option as many of their fans do not want to join the B1G).  The Big 12 has a few options and can remain at 12 teams or add markets like BYU, Miami, Wake Forest, and Louisville (if I had to guess I ‘d say yes to the first two and no to the last two).  The SEC can stand pat or go pick up the remaining worthwhile teams in the East of Syracuse and Pitt (which I doubt).

I have looked at the numbers in the past and most of these moves don’t makes sense, especially for big schools like Ohio State.  The issue is Delany is looking 40 years down the line and I’m sure his numbers take many things into account I haven’t considered.  Like 2010, the Big Ten will be the catalyst for further change in there bid for growing markets.  It is possble the Big 12 will move first as they do need to get to 12 teams but Florida State is waiting to see how the Maryland exit fee works before they do anything.  It is possible that Georgia Tech and Virginia are waiting on the same thing so once that ruling happens things may move fast..

It should be interesting…..

** – If you are wondering how the B1G will be able to compete with an 18 team conference it will be pretty simple.The teams are separated into East and West and there will be no conference games played between the divisions.  Teams like Michigan are able to schedule games with teams like Notre Dame but it will be the same as a non-conference game.  I like this solution as with 9 teams it allows an 8 game division schedule and great flexibility for the other 4 games.

Revisiting John Cooper

Everyone needs a hobby and one poster on the forums continual rant is that Jim Tressel was a terrible recruiter and the only reason he won a national championship is because John Cooper left him talent.  He continually raves about Cooper and tells everyone that we need to look past his record vs Michigan.  The reason for his ranting is that he believes that Urban Meyer is going to dominant and combine the recruiting of Cooper with the ability to use it.

I love this guy’s enthusiasm about the future but I hate it when we feel the need to tear down others to make ourselves feel better about the future.  I decided to look at some of the facts.

I got out my handy recruiting database and value any recruit since 1968 on a scale based on where they were recruited.  The first pick is worth 250 pts decreasing by one to the 250th pick.  The reason I used 250 is that today’s drafts around that number and it equalizes the days when the NFL had 26 teams and the draft had 17 rounds.


A few points of note:

• The numbers do no match recruiting class as that would have taken too much time. I used the NFL draft and backdated 4 years. I looked at the 2004 class and only Chris Gamble was a Tressel recruit.
• In 1988, college football players started leaving after their 3rd year of school though it is rare and because this is about Cooper/Tressel I checked 2004.
• Redshirting allows players an extra year of college which affects this slightly. 
• Earle Bruce’s 1979 to 1982 classes were affected by the USFL as if it didn’t exist, the number of players drafted would have been better than the above.

John Cooper had many great drafts and based on the numbers, he recruited as any program in the county.  During the time period I studied, USC averaged 894.  Jim Tressel wasn’t too bad during his tenure as he averaged 769 which is better than the second place team during the period (Miami-FL) which averaged 707.  Ohio State was 3rd at 692.

Based on the numbers it is safe to say that both Cooper and Tressel recruited very well during there tenure and Tressel did more once the kids got to school.  As a point of comparison, Urban Meyer’s 2005-2008 classes at Florida has averaged 734.  For what it is worth, both Tressel and Meyer have two years left until their kids are gone from Ohio State/Florida respectively.

I personally respect the job that Cooper did and know better than most just how close he was to being an all-time great.  He should have won at least 4 more Michigan games (at a minimum 1990,1992,1996,1997) and if that happened he finished at 6-6 and his reputation much better.  If only it were true.

I hope Urban Meyer is successful and the results of the last season back that up and there’s no reason to believe it is an anomaly.  That should not diminish Jim Tressel’s era as his recruiting was top notch and we were lucky to have him.

The BEast is dead.

The Big East is dead.  Thank God or more precisely, thank the basketball schools.  This league was founded as a basketball league but slowly morphed into a hybrid of basketball only and BCS schools.  The basketball schools pulled out leaving behind a weird mix of schools that all joined in hopes of getting BCS money.

The league died as a real football conference 10 years ago when Miami, Boston College and Virginia Tech decided to leave for the ACC and you could make an argument that this was inevitable ever since the basketball schools voted against Penn State’s entry in 1987.  The only reason the league kept their BCS status was politics allowed it.  This caused more schools to ask for a greater share of the pie and the ultimate result is the bowl system that shuts the door in 2014.

The Big East caused more damage to college sports than the SEC or the B1G combined.  I’m sure apologists would disagree but the basketball-only schools were tired of the revolving door as the basketball product was becoming a joke.  Replacing Syracuse, Pitt, and West Virginia with South Florida, Tulane and East Carolina was going to reduce revenues for them.  While the football schools held the league hostage to BCS money, it is ironic that the final straw that killed the league was the threat to basketball revenue.  Things had come full circle.

The Big East was the inspiration for the Boise State’s, Cincinnati, and Temple’s of the world that they could make the move from non-BCS status of $100,000 a year and start getting BCS money which is close to $2,000,000 (for an 8 team Big East).  With that came the hope of television revenue even if they had to play most of their games on Monday - Friday.

Football money is fools gold for most athletic departments.  Only 6 of the 65 schools in the BCS make money from college sports.  Revenues at these schools are dependent on 3 things, ticket sales, tv revenue, and bowl money.  The B1G gives it's members about $30-$40 million per year.  In comparison the number is between $1-2 million for schools outside of the BCS.  With that level of revenue, schools depend on donations, student fees, and general fund allocations (ie – state money that comes from taxes) to make up the difference.  As schools ‘invested’ to get to BCS status, costs escalated.  The USA Today has an annual database of information that shows just how bad this has gotten in recent years.  This is just a sample:


As you can see, the expenses of the average school in the sample rose by $13 million in the last 5 years.  Taxes and student fees rose by $5 million to help offset it as ticket sales, donations and TV revenue only rose by $8 million.  Most of the increase came from the increase in coaches salaries and buildings (almost $10 million combined).  Compare the numbers to Ohio State and you can see these schools aren’t even in the same ballpark and never will be.

Rutger’s gamble paid off as they will soon be getting an extra $30 million in the B1G (paid for by their cable subscribers).  East Carolina, Boise State, and Cincinnati are left scrambling for a league and will most likely end up where they started.
 
Maybe now that this has happened, sanity will return to college athletics and all schools will start to face their real issues.

Ohio State - Michigan : Same Division!

I was inspired this morning when I saw that the celebration for the 12-0 Buckeye football team was only 2/3 full when the press had stated it was sold out earlier this week.  I was thinking of taking my niece and nephew to it but didn't bother when I saw it was sold out.  I'm sure that happened to many others as well.

My anger of this issue led me to the thought that Gene Smith really needs a better publicist and as I thought that four words popped into my head.  I realized Gene doesn't need a publicist he just needs to go public with four little words and all would be forgiven.

Ohio State - Michigan: Same Division!

Gene needs to be seen leading the fight to make this happen and we wouldn't care about the past as the future would be bright.  Here's my open letter to Gene:

Do you remember when you said you felt very strongly that Ohio State's self accessed penalties were appropriate and if the NCAA felt different you would fight them? Do you remember when you caved when the NCAA made their announcement? Of course you do.

How about when Jim Delany came out and said Ohio State / Michigan were going to be moved into separate divisions and The Game would be moved. You abdicated before the fight even occurred. We forced you to keep The Game where it was.

Despite all evidence to the contrary I know you aren't stupid. I'm sure there is a lot more to these stories than can be said in the public. The issue is you've lost all credibility with Buckeye Nation but the good news is you have a great opportunity to get it back by publicly standing up to Jim Delany and saying four little words.

Ohio State - Michigan : Same Divsion!

Let's look at other rivalries and see how they've fared lately:

Alabama-Auburn: Same division - No change
USC - UCLA: Same division - No change
Oregon - Oregon State: Same division - No change
Texas - Oklahoma: Same divisison - No change

Oklahoma - Nebraska: Different divisions - Nebraska left the league
Miami - Florida St: Different divisions - Fl St is thinking of leaving the ACC

I know you guys dream of an OSU-UM rematch championship game but as Stanford-UCLA and Alabama-LSU proved in the last year, the public isn't very interested in rematches. What is also apparent is a B1G championship game without either Ohio State or Michigan is a ratings disaster and poorly attended. Do you know how to make it more likely one of them is in the game? Put them in the same division!

You can have expansion and hold on to your traditions. Buckeye Nation doesn't care what teams are in their division as long as one of them is Michigan. We'd gladly sacrifice a yearly matchup with Penn State to make this happen though I'm not sure why you'd want to do that. I'd think sending your top three media draws into the 1st and 4th media markets every year would make a lot of sense.

OSU/UM/PSU/MD/Rutgers: That's 5 teams for the EAST division. Fill in the rest with whomever else you'd like. We don't care.

Decisions are being made right now determine the divisional lineup and who knows if there is going to be another chance to fix this. We need to know our athletic director understands what is important. Ohio State and Michigan made this league and our athletic director needs to say it loud and proud.

Win us back Gene! All you have to do is publicly announce is that you are going to Chicago to make our case. Use every bit of political power that being the leader of the most popular (and hated) football team in America can wield. Just make it happen.

Ohio State - Michigan : Same Division!

BCS Bowl Chaos & the non-BCS league dilemma

Yesterday the internet exploded when traditional powers Georgia and Oklahoma were excluded from the BCS to let in MAC champion Northern Illinois.  Here’s the matchup’s that set up the furor:

Champion: Notre Dame vs. Alabama

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs. Kansas State

Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Louisville

Orange Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Florida State

The Championship game and the Fiesta bowl look like good matchups but the other three appear to be mismatches.  I expect ratings to be as bad as last year which is what led the Presidents/ADs to finally allow a playoff.  One of the reasons for the uproar is the Final BCS standings:

1  Notre Dame (1st at large)
2  Alabama (SEC Champ)
3  Florida (2nd at large)
4  Oregon (3rd at large)
5  Kansas State (B12 Champ)
6  Stanford (Pac 12 Champ)
7  Georgia
8  LSU
9  Texas A&M
10 South Carolina
11 Oklahoma
12 Florida State (ACC Champ)
13 Oregon State
14 Clemson
15 Northern Illinois (Small school qualifier)
16 Nebraska

The Big Ten champ Wisconsin was 26th and the Big East champ Louisville was 21st in the final standings. 

4 teams ranked higher than 12 are in a BCS game.  When you consider that 10 teams make it into the BCS fans have a right to feel upset.  SEC fans feel they should have at least 1 more team but there is a rule that a conference can only have two participants.  One complication that hasn’t happened since 2007 is Notre Dame had a good year they took one at large position.  Then there is the weak champions from the ACC, B1G, and Big East.  The most controversial entrant is Northern Illinois who got in using the rule that Utah/TCU/Boise State’s success created.  All these schools are now in BCS conferences but it was created to forestall government intervention into the bowl system.  It guarantees one small school from a non-BCS conference a spot if they meet 2 rules: the team is ranked better than 16 and the team is ranked ahead of two BCS champions.  Northern Illinois met this and they had to be given a spot.

Someone on the O-Zone made the comment that the NCAA caused their own mess.  By penalizing Ohio State and Penn State they weakened the B1G to the point that gave a 3rd place Wisconsin a spot in the B1G championship game.  If neither is penalized then the game features an undefeated Ohio State or a 2 loss (at most) Penn State vs Nebraska.  Both teams would have been ranked in the top 10 as would the winner of the championship game.  The matchups would look something like:

Ohio State vs Notre Dame
Alabama vs Stanford
Florida vs Oregon
Oklahoma vs Florida St
Kansas St vs Louisville

Even if Penn State or Nebraska won it would have looked something like this:

Notre Dame vs Alabama
Stanford vs Penn St/Nebraska
Florida vs Oregon
Oklahoma vs Florida St
Kansas St vs Louisville

Television would have loved these matchups and ratings would have set records.  It’s really too bad as I’m only looking forward to the Rose Bowl and the BCS game right now.  We are stuck with this system for another year and then the bowls will be allowed to pick whomever they choose and not be beholden to rules that don’t work.

Sports Illustrated did a mock with a bunch of people that would make up the selection committee and the discussion was much different than I expected.  Polls and computer rankings were used but who is playing the best at the end of the year and gut feeling also played a part.  It was an interesting look at the troubles facing this committee in a year I thought would be easy but after looking closer it isn’t.  Notre Dame, Alabama, Stanford, and Kansas St. are the obvious subjects with 3 conference champs and 1 at large but Florida and Oregon are difficult to ignore.  The consensus from the men in the mock was that they need to expand it to 8 which is the best solution in my opinion.  An eight team playoff would have the six I mentioned and then it would depend on how they set it up.  If you go with five automatic qualifiers then Florida State and Wisconsin would be included.  Otherwise it would probably be Georgia and Oklahoma (no way they let 4 SEC teams in the playoff).

The new system is set up to put the major conferences into major bowls but the little guys are getting squeezed out of the picture.  That's why I hope the non-BCS qualifiers come to their senses and create their own system.  There is no doubt in my mind that when college football switches to a system where the bowls can get whoever they want the matchups will always exclude the small schools.  There is talk of adding a 6th bowl to accommodate them but that is a bit funny since that is the same reason they added the 5th game.

The system for the future is taking shape but what about the small schools that are getting shut out in 2014?

In my opinion they should try for is a payout double to what they get now (approx. $100,000 per school) plus a guarantee that if they are in the top 6 AP/Coaches poll they will be included in the playoff.  The sad truth for many of these schools is even if they go get to a major bowl they lose money because of ticket guarantees they can’t meet (UConn lost $2million to go to the Fiesta Bowl).  Big schools are attractive for bowls because their fans travel and bring 20,000+ fans into the local economy and spend $1000 each on flights/hotel rooms/food/etc.  Small schools only benefit to bowls is in television and ESPN/Fox only pay top dollar for something that will attract viewers.  It is a situation begging for a small school playoff played at modest sized stadiums.

There are 6 small conferences right now though some might argue the ACC should be included:

Sunbelt
Conference USA
Big East
MidAmerican
Mountain West
Western Athletic

I was surprised on Saturday to find there was no big game until 5 pm.  The SEC is a 5pm game, the B1G was at 8PM, and so was the ACC.  The MAC and the Pac12 played on Friday night.  The leagues do this because I’m sure the networks have told them the ratings are better at those times.  The earlier games on Saturday were a mishmash of small schools and Big 12 games that no one cared about.   The small schools need to take advantage of this situation and give people quality football played between teams that are playing for something. 

It would be easy to convince the NCAA of an 8 team playoff for the small schools.  If the small schools agreed to this, the big schools would agree to most anything so they can avoid litigation and government interference.  It would be easy to accomplish as all they’d need to do is rank the teams and form playoff brackets with seeds 1-4 having first round home games.  The Big East and the MAC have gotten people used to watching them on Thursday so put one game there and other three on Saturday morning.  Stagger the Saturday starts so that the first begins at 11am and the last will end just before 5pm.  That allows everyone to watch the ending of every game.  The key is to hook them so they watch the bowl and championship game.  As the NCAA tournament has proved, people are more willing to watch if they know something about a team.

How would it look this year? (Team (Conference) – AP Rank)

N Illinois (MAC) – 16
Utah ST (WAC) – 18
Boise St (MWest) - 20
Louisville (Big East) - 22
San Jose St (At large) - 24
Kent St (At large) - 25
Arkansas St (Sunbelt) - 36
Tulsa (C-USA) – 38

The schools/conferences would make money on these home games and it would create interest for the winners in the semifinals which would be given a slot between Christmas and New Years with no competition (ideally a Saturday).  The losers could play in the Motor City Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl, or where ever they can negotiate.

It’s a win/win and whoever wins the championship will have something very special to celebrate.  If a team has continual success then perhaps a team will gain a following that the big bowls can’t ignore.

Maryland/Rutgers added to B1G –What does it mean?

Yesterday the Big Ten added a 13th member in Maryland and today will add Rutgers.  My first reaction was to get upset as the traditionalist in me hates expansion and what it will do to our traditional rivalries.  If you forget, 14 teams means we have two divisions of 7 and with a six game division schedule.  That leaves 2 games for interdivision and with one protected (Michigan), we will see the other teams in the division once every 6 years.  Even if they add another conference game we will only see teams like Nebraska and Iowa, once every 3 years.  Replacing more frequent matches against these teams with Rutgers and Maryland makes me sad and it is probably going to get worse as I don’t think it is done.

That leads to the question – Why is the Big Ten doing this?

The answer is easy.  Money.

I’m sure many people’s first reaction was …. Maryland? Rutgers? That’s stupid!

At first glance it seems like this as neither school has much of a football tradition.  Neither school sells out their stadium which are half the size of Ohio State’s.  What makes them more attractive than schools with more football history like Pitt, Syracuse, or West Virginia?

This addition isn’t exciting to football fans but college president love this for three reason: 1) TV market, 2) Political access and 3) Research.

1. TV Market – As I’ve written before there are two parts to the B1G fees. There’s the 1st tier games that will be broadcast nationally and 2nd tier that will be broadcast on BTN. 
• 1st tier - The B1G is renegotiating its TV contract for football and basketball and the recent trend is to sign them for 15 years. That’s a long time and the B1G needs to do whatever possible to be attractive to Fox/ESPN/CBS/etc.  Adding teams near the big markets of New York, Washington DC, and Baltimore makes the league more attractive.  It wouldn’t shock me to hear that the TV networks have pushed for this because they know these markets are untapped.
• 2nd tier – The B1G charges $.10 to cable companies in states without a B1G team and $1.10 for states with a B1G team.  These schools are surrounded by huge populations.
• The odds are pretty good that the B1G will be added to basic in Maryland because of the popularity of Terrapin basketball.  At an estimate of 2 million households that’s an extra $2 million PER MONTH.  That alone pays for Maryland’s entry.
• It’s trickier in Rutgers as the pull for that school isn’t great in New York.  The interesting thing is Fox just bought YES which broadcasts the Yankees.  Fox is the majority owner of the BTN and it isn’t a huge stretch to see them pair the two to force New York cable companies to buy the Big Ten Network as well.
2. Political Access – One thing that was mentioned yesterday was that the Big Ten is opening an East Coast office to support the schools in this area.  The location is going to be interesting and will tell volumes of what the league expects from this office. 
• Philadelphia – The midpoint of the three eastern teams is Philadelphia.  This happens to be the hometown of Comcast which is the largest cable provider in the country. 
• Washington DC – Maryland is close to these schools but if they locate here I’d expect it to be a lobbying office which I will get into more in point #3.
• New York – The media companies all have a strong presense here and the home of ESPN (Bristol, Conn) is right up the road.
• Other – I doubt it would be located somewhere else but if the B1G expands elsewhere in the east it could affect the location.
3. Research –
• It is no secret that research departments are going to experience a period of reduced budgets.  Federal and state governments are deep in debt and have to make cutbacks.  That means schools will have to do more with less and cooperation with organizations like the Big Ten’s CIC will be more important.
• I touched on a secondary consideration in point #2.  If the B1G opens their branch in Washington it would be a great place to work on lobbying the government for additional dollars.  It can’t hurt the league to have a presence at the major universities in the states of New Jersey and Maryland.  The political votes in two heavily populated states help too.
• 10 of the current B1G members are ranked in the top 55 of research spending.  Maryland is 39th and Rutgers is 57th.  This represents almost a quarter of the top 50 research universities and the fact they work together means makes them an attractive destination for funds.
4. Olympic sports - The Big Ten has 12 of the top 48 in the Director’s cup standings which measures overall program success (Ohio State is the highest at #4).  Maryland is 27th and Rutgers is 111th.  Both programs have certain programs where they excel but Rutgers is definitely is a dog in this regard but they have lots of potential.
5. Fertile recruiting grounds – Something that I mentioned yesterday on the Ozone forums which Gerd copied and a few other Buckeye columnists copied (/pat-myself-on-the-back).
• 2013 3+ Star recruits per 247 / Rivals
• Maryland - 46 / 35
• New Jersey - 41 / 33
• Indiana - 26 / 26
• Illinois - 36 / 37
• Wisconsin - 9 / 14
• Minnesota - 5 / 5
• Michigan - 32 / 34
• Pennsylvania - 39 / 33
• Iowa - 6 / 6
• Nebraska - 3 / 4
• Ohio - 80 / 91
• The population that runs through New York, New Jersey, Maryland, N Virginia, and E Pennsylvania is one of the largest in the world.  The colleges in this area are mostly private and have de-emphasized scholarship sports.  Rutgers changed this trend in the early 1990s but still have a long ways to go.  The key for B1G schools is they can recruit the east coast and tell parents they can not only see their kids on TV but now see them in person.

The overriding theme in every one of these points is that by adding these two schools you lock down more of the country than you would with many other more successful programs.

• There are many ways to look at areas with the propensity to support a football team but the best is possibly to look at the NFL.
• Currently the B1G has Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Indianapolis, Chicago, Green Bay, St. Louis and Kansas City.
• Adding these two teams is like adding Philadelphia, New York, Baltimore, and Washington.
• If the NCAA ever consolidates to make a league like the NFL they’ve already locked down these markets.
• As a side note, Syracuse and Boston College makes some sense to get Buffalo/New England but I’m not sure either make sense academically and no other schools are much better.
• To the south Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia Tech only add Atlanta and Carolina which would be split with other schools.

In essence, these two schools have the greatest potential to lock down more fans and biggest payback for the Big Ten that are also great research institutions and close to the financial, media, and political power in the country.  That’s why the decision was made to add Rutgers and Maryland.  Only time will tell if it was a good one.

I"m so tired of the Gene Smith apologists

I'm talking about the people that say if we self accessed a bowl ban last year we would have gotten another year.  Here's an argument I've fought repeatedly:

I stipulate that Gene Smith is an idiot & should be fired. However, there was always going to be a 2012 bowl ban...There is nothing Smith could have done to prevent it...with the possible exception of banning Bobby Di from the program the day he (Smith) was hired.

My response:

You don't know this and it is most likely it would have been 1 yr. Why? USC got 2 years for LOIC. We were barely FtM.  The NCAA doesn't go against precedent and while Gene Smith thought there was no precedent for a 1 year ban there definitely wasn't precedent for a 2 year ban. They'd need a LOIC charge and that didn't happen.

His response:

You (and a lot of others don't get it). Ohio State was a REPEAT OFFENDER w/that FTM. The hammer was coming down. 

I clarified my statement as I hate getting into specifics with the NCAA as it always takes paragraphs and still isn't enough because all of their cases are messy.

The only case where a school got a two year ban without a LOIC was the Alabama Albert Means case in 2002.  If you don't remember that's where it was proven that multiple Alabama boosters were giving money to Alabama recruits a few years after they'd been caught doing the same thing in the mid 90s.  The only thing that saved the school was the NCAA couldn't prove a direct link to the school in directing the payments.  That saved them from a LOIC but the NCAA charged them similarly.

 Ohio State's football program was only repeat offender because an individual football case that was promptly dealt with (Troy Smith's $500 payout) was included with the O'Brien's scandal.  The Compliance Group felt the football program would be exempt from repeat violator penalties because cases against players are handled differently than cases against programs.   

Even though BobbyD gave us a FtM the two combined pale in comparison to Alabama's situation that was lucky to not get a LOIC.  You can look at the penalties to see how the NCAA viewed the severity.

• Alabama lost 21 scholarships and a two year bowl ban
• OSU lost 9 scholarships and a one year bowl ban. 

Are we to believe that because we self imposed a bowl ban last season that the NCAA would have upped the bowl ban out of spite?  The scholarships give a clue about how the NCAA felt about the severity of the two cases and they just don't arbitrarily give longer sentences because we proactively gave ourselves a bowl ban during a bad season and they didn't feel it was harsh enough.  It would create precedent they'd need to live with forever.

A good example is the USC situation.  They took 2 years pre-emptively while protesting the scholarship reduction.  This season they are bowling while the scholarship reductions started this year.

I understand people wanting to believe this as they want to see the NCAA as an arbitrary monster that needs to be struck down. It is really a bunch of lawyers using a set of overly complex rules to govern something that is impossible to govern.  They have little authority to actively police the schools and I'm sure they feel helpless at times.  College sports is tailor made for abuse and while the penalties can seem arbitrary when you look at case law there is precedent and a methodology for every thing they do. That leaves little room to give Ohio State another year 'just cause they felt like it'.