Pittsburgh as the 12th team

The internet has been buzzing lately that Pittburgh is going to be announced as the 12th team to the Big Ten in a press conference on Thursday. The Big 10 has denied the reports but this rumor is unstoppable at this point. I have done quite a bit of study on the "12th team" topic but I'm not ready do a post on the whole topic as it needs more study. Still I feel the need to talk about Pittsburgh just for prediction's sake.



The Big Ten made this statement on December 15th, 2009:

The Big Ten Council of Presidents/Chancellors believes that the timing is right for the conference to once again conduct a thorough evaluation of options for conference structure and expansion. As a result, the commissioner was asked to provide recommendations for consideration by the COP/C over the next 12 to 18 months.

One thing I have always respected about the Big Ten is their conservative but decisive nature. The Big Ten was unchanged for over 50 years when they looked into adding Penn State in 1990. After looking at the facts it was obvious that the conference and the school were a perfect match both academically and athletically. This move was the start of a trend that saw the Southwest conference disappear, the Big 12 form, the ACC/SEC expand, and the formation of Conference USA/Big East from the remaining schools.

The Big Ten Network is another example of the conference's decision making process. Historically colleges relied on NBC/CBS/Fox/ABC or ESPN to broadcast their games. After looking into the matter the Big 10 decided to try to cut out the middle man and air their games directly to the cable systems on their own network. Although it was risky, this has been a huge windfall for the conference conference and the other conferences are scrambling to catch up.

The first question that needs to be answered is why the Big 10 wants to add another team. There are a few different reasons:

• Additional Conference Championship game to generate money
  
• More media markets for the Big 10 Network
• More resources for Academic Collaboration
• Ensure the future stability of the conference

Most football fans think the Conference Championship game is the sole reason for the Big 10's desire to expand and it is certainly is a catalyst. However despite a rocky start the Big 10 network has succeeded beyond it's wildest expectations and has given the league a huge competitive advantage over the rest of the country. This advantage won't last forever and the league is looking to strike while the iron is hot. The Big 10 won't take any school as the presidents take the academic participation very seriously and any potential school will at the very least need to make strong commitments in this area. The final consideration in my mind is that people underestimate the effect of the economy on the colleges in the United States. The Big10 is located in the worst hit areas of the country so it is probable that donations and tickets sales will stagnate over the next few years.

The rumors about Pittsburgh started over the weekend and grew amazingly. Ignoring the fact that the Big10 just started their search and I have serious doubts that the Big10 would move this quick let's look at Pittburgh's resume.

• Football Stadium Capacity - 64,450 (Big Ten average 74,392)
  
• On Campus Facility - No
• US News College Rank - 56 (Big Ten average - 50.2)
• Student Body - 27,562 (Big Ten average - 40,931)
• AAU Member - Yes
• Graduate Programs - Nationally Ranked in Engineering (49), Law (71), and Medicine (13)
• Distance from League Midpoint - 348 miles
• TV Market Additions - None
  

A cursory look at Pittsburgh shows that it is a good fit in many ways. Ignoring the Texas rumors, their only real competition for the 12th spot in the conference is Notre Dame, Syracuse, Rutgers, Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri. Comparing to these schools, Pittsburgh matches up very well in many ways but every school has a negative that hurts their chances (this is why the Texas rumors are popping up because they'd be a no-brainer if they were located closer). Pittsburgh's issues are 1) the lack of an on campus facility shows they don't have the finances/support necessary to be a big-time football power and 2) the fact that Ohio State and Penn State have a strong following in Pittsburgh means that no additional TV revenue would come to the Big 10 with their addition. The main things that Pittburgh brings is a ready made rivalry game with Penn State and good academics.

The question is --- Is that enough? The answer depends on how high academics rank in the president's decision making process. If generating additional revenue is a goal then there are much better schools for that than Pittsburgh. Ultimately, Pittsburgh's best shot at joining the Big Ten is if they decide to add 3 or 5 teams to the league. The final answer on this question is while Pittsburgh may ultimately join the league, I doubt they join alone and even if they do it will be at least a year before a decision is made.