Competition in the Big Ten

I've been working on a project to see how effective is a college is in getting their recruits to play for all 4 years (5 for a redshirt).  In theory a player should enter college and 4-5 years later exit with a degree.  Many things stop that from occurring such as injuries, academic casualties, and turning pro.  Some of this is outside the ability of a coach to control but some programs are worse at retaining their talent than others.  As Oversigning.com has stated, some programs make it a habit to "cut" players that aren't performing on the field.  My thought was to get a baseline of talent in college football and then look at the worst "oversigning" offenders.



This was a lot tougher than it may sound as I first needed to get the recruiting classes for the schools I was studying and then compare them to the roster a few years later.  I decided to look at the senior class for 2010 but since redshirting muddies things a bit I decided to use the 2006 and 2007 recruiting classes. Below is a table of the current status of these classes for Ohio State's main competition in the Big Ten and also the usual suspects nationally.

	2006-2007 Recruiting Status
	Grad	Sr	Sr Rdsrt	Jr Rdsrt	MIA	Total	MIA	Redsrt
Ohio State	7	7	9	5	7	35	20%	40%
Penn State	7	2	7	16	13	45	29%	51%
Michigan	6	4	7	7	15	39	38%	36%
Iowa	3	3	12	12	12	42	29%	57%
Wisconsin	1	4	8	8	19	40	48%	40%
Notre Dame	19	13	0	1	13	46	28%	2%
Alabama	7	4	7	10	20	48	42%	35%
LSU	10	4	4	10	24	52	46%	27%
USC	8	4	10	10	13	45	29%	44%
Florida	13	8	8	6	19	54	35%	26%
Texas	6	7	9	9	18	49	37%	37%

A few quick points about this table.  First, I got the underlying information from websites (Scout and Rivals).  The info on these pages is pretty reliable but some of the rosters haven't been updated in a few months.  The other issue is I manually compared the information for the recruiting lists with the current roster information.  I tried to be thorough but it is possible I've made a few mistakes.  The Grad Column includes players that have exhausted their eligibility and players that have turned pro.  The Senior Column is Seniors from the class of 2007.  Rd Senior are Redshirt Seniors from the class of 2006.  Rd Juniors are the non-senior players on the team from the 2006-7 recruiting classes.  MIA is players that didn't play 4 years, didn't turn pro early, and aren't currently on the team.

The key information on this schedule is the right two columns - MIA% and Redshirt%.  As you can see most teams redshirt about 35-40% of their players.  The other thing is most teams have an attrition rate of about 30%.  Now look at the class rankings for these programs for the players that will be the primary drivers for this year.

	Class Rank by Year
	2006	2007	2008	2009
Ohio State	12	15	4	3
Penn State	6	24	43	24
Michigan	13	12	10	8
Iowa	39	28	53	63
Wisconsin	40	34	41	43
Notre Dame	8	8	2	21
Alabama	11	10	1	1
LSU	7	4	11	2
USC	1	2	8	4
Florida	2	1	3	11
Texas	5	5	14	5

Taking these two schedules there are a few programs that I want to highlight.

• Wisconsin - High redshirt % makes up for lackluster recruiting classes.  The high attrition rate is cause for concern and makes me wonder if this team is going to be anywhere close to what people expect.
• Iowa - Similar to Wisconsin recruiting but with much more redshirting and better retention.
• Penn State - Ideal retention and Redshirting.  Recruiting falloff in 07-09 is cause for concern.
• Michigan - This is a real puzzle.  Their Redshirting and Retention are similar to Texas and their recruiting rank isn't far behind them.  Makes me wonder if they will be a big surprise this season.

Now for our other friends.

• Notre Dame - Until I did this I didn't realize that Notre Dame essentially doesn't allow redshirting.  It can happen but it is only granted after a player's senior year.  Even if a player is eligible for a redshirt they are designated with the class they entered and then after their senior year they have to petition the school with a list of the courses they will be taking.  While I applaud the no nonsense approach they take to academics it is a real handicap for football.  Their high admission standards do help as their retention rates are much better than the national average.
• Alabama - Have a high attrition rate and are very young.  Talent will make them contenders.
• LSU - Good talent but with high attrition and low redshirting.  Maturity will be an issue.
• USC- Everyone is writing this team off but if the recruiting services are correct this team was just young last year.  Pete Carroll proved  multiple times that he couldn't win even if he had the best talent so it will be interesting to see how Lane Kiffin does in his place.  They could be a big surprise and spoiler.

I know that the recruiting services are often wrong but other than a bit of a region bias I think they are consistent.  If you look at these two tables I think that Ohio State is poised for a national championship run but don't be surprised if our main competition comes from Michigan.  Despite their performance on the field last year they are athletic and that is half the battle.  It is up to RichRod to get them motivated if all the negative publicity hasn't already done that.  The big indicator will be the Notre Dame game -- if this is a Michigan blowout then I could see them surprising many since they get Iowa and Wisconsin at home this year

Of course all of this could just be further proof that the recruiting services mean nothing.