Sunday, December 16, 2012

Revisiting John Cooper

Everyone needs a hobby and one poster on the forums continual rant is that Jim Tressel was a terrible recruiter and the only reason he won a national championship is because John Cooper left him talent.  He continually raves about Cooper and tells everyone that we need to look past his record vs Michigan.  The reason for his ranting is that he believes that Urban Meyer is going to dominant and combine the recruiting of Cooper with the ability to use it.

I love this guy’s enthusiasm about the future but I hate it when we feel the need to tear down others to make ourselves feel better about the future.  I decided to look at some of the facts.

I got out my handy recruiting database and value any recruit since 1968 on a scale based on where they were recruited.  The first pick is worth 250 pts decreasing by one to the 250th pick.  The reason I used 250 is that today’s drafts around that number and it equalizes the days when the NFL had 26 teams and the draft had 17 rounds.


A few points of note:
    • The numbers do no match recruiting class as that would have taken too much time. I used the NFL draft and backdated 4 years. I looked at the 2004 class and only Chris Gamble was a Tressel recruit.
    • In 1988, college football players started leaving after their 3rd year of school though it is rare and because this is about Cooper/Tressel I checked 2004.
    • Redshirting allows players an extra year of college which affects this slightly. 
    • Earle Bruce’s 1979 to 1982 classes were affected by the USFL as if it didn’t exist, the number of players drafted would have been better than the above.
John Cooper had many great drafts and based on the numbers, he recruited as any program in the county.  During the time period I studied, USC averaged 894.  Jim Tressel wasn’t too bad during his tenure as he averaged 769 which is better than the second place team during the period (Miami-FL) which averaged 707.  Ohio State was 3rd at 692.

Based on the numbers it is safe to say that both Cooper and Tressel recruited very well during there tenure and Tressel did more once the kids got to school.  As a point of comparison, Urban Meyer’s 2005-2008 classes at Florida has averaged 734.  For what it is worth, both Tressel and Meyer have two years left until their kids are gone from Ohio State/Florida respectively.

I personally respect the job that Cooper did and know better than most just how close he was to being an all-time great.  He should have won at least 4 more Michigan games (at a minimum 1990,1992,1996,1997) and if that happened he finished at 6-6 and his reputation much better.  If only it were true.

I hope Urban Meyer is successful and the results of the last season back that up and there’s no reason to believe it is an anomaly.  That should not diminish Jim Tressel’s era as his recruiting was top notch and we were lucky to have him.

Friday, December 14, 2012

The BEast is dead.

The Big East is dead.  Thank God or more precisely, thank the basketball schools.  This league was founded as a basketball league but slowly morphed into a hybrid of basketball only and BCS schools.  The basketball schools pulled out leaving behind a weird mix of schools that all joined in hopes of getting BCS money.

The league died as a real football conference 10 years ago when Miami, Boston College and Virginia Tech decided to leave for the ACC and you could make an argument that this was inevitable ever since the basketball schools voted against Penn State’s entry in 1987.  The only reason the league kept their BCS status was politics allowed it.  This caused more schools to ask for a greater share of the pie and the ultimate result is the bowl system that shuts the door in 2014.

The Big East caused more damage to college sports than the SEC or the B1G combined.  I’m sure apologists would disagree but the basketball-only schools were tired of the revolving door as the basketball product was becoming a joke.  Replacing Syracuse, Pitt, and West Virginia with South Florida, Tulane and East Carolina was going to reduce revenues for them.  While the football schools held the league hostage to BCS money, it is ironic that the final straw that killed the league was the threat to basketball revenue.  Things had come full circle.

The Big East was the inspiration for the Boise State’s, Cincinnati, and Temple’s of the world that they could make the move from non-BCS status of $100,000 a year and start getting BCS money which is close to $2,000,000 (for an 8 team Big East).  With that came the hope of television revenue even if they had to play most of their games on Monday - Friday.

Football money is fools gold for most athletic departments.  Only 6 of the 65 schools in the BCS make money from college sports.  Revenues at these schools are dependent on 3 things, ticket sales, tv revenue, and bowl money.  The B1G gives it's members about $30-$40 million per year.  In comparison the number is between $1-2 million for schools outside of the BCS.  With that level of revenue, schools depend on donations, student fees, and general fund allocations (ie – state money that comes from taxes) to make up the difference.  As schools ‘invested’ to get to BCS status, costs escalated.  The USA Today has an annual database of information that shows just how bad this has gotten in recent years.  This is just a sample:


As you can see, the expenses of the average school in the sample rose by $13 million in the last 5 years.  Taxes and student fees rose by $5 million to help offset it as ticket sales, donations and TV revenue only rose by $8 million.  Most of the increase came from the increase in coaches salaries and buildings (almost $10 million combined).  Compare the numbers to Ohio State and you can see these schools aren’t even in the same ballpark and never will be.

Rutger’s gamble paid off as they will soon be getting an extra $30 million in the B1G (paid for by their cable subscribers).  East Carolina, Boise State, and Cincinnati are left scrambling for a league and will most likely end up where they started.
 
Maybe now that this has happened, sanity will return to college athletics and all schools will start to face their real issues.

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Ohio State - Michigan : Same Division!

I was inspired this morning when I saw that the celebration for the 12-0 Buckeye football team was only 2/3 full when the press had stated it was sold out earlier this week.  I was thinking of taking my niece and nephew to it but didn't bother when I saw it was sold out.  I'm sure that happened to many others as well.

My anger of this issue led me to the thought that Gene Smith really needs a better publicist and as I thought that four words popped into my head.  I realized Gene doesn't need a publicist he just needs to go public with four little words and all would be forgiven.

Ohio State - Michigan: Same Division!

Gene needs to be seen leading the fight to make this happen and we wouldn't care about the past as the future would be bright.  Here's my open letter to Gene:

Do you remember when you said you felt very strongly that Ohio State's self accessed penalties were appropriate and if the NCAA felt different you would fight them? Do you remember when you caved when the NCAA made their announcement? Of course you do.
How about when Jim Delany came out and said Ohio State / Michigan were going to be moved into separate divisions and The Game would be moved. You abdicated before the fight even occurred. We forced you to keep The Game where it was.
Despite all evidence to the contrary I know you aren't stupid. I'm sure there is a lot more to these stories than can be said in the public. The issue is you've lost all credibility with Buckeye Nation but the good news is you have a great opportunity to get it back by publicly standing up to Jim Delany and saying four little words.
Ohio State - Michigan : Same Divsion!
Let's look at other rivalries and see how they've fared lately:
Alabama-Auburn: Same division - No change
USC - UCLA: Same division - No change
Oregon - Oregon State: Same division - No change
Texas - Oklahoma: Same divisison - No change
Oklahoma - Nebraska: Different divisions - Nebraska left the league
Miami - Florida St: Different divisions - Fl St is thinking of leaving the ACC
I know you guys dream of an OSU-UM rematch championship game but as Stanford-UCLA and Alabama-LSU proved in the last year, the public isn't very interested in rematches. What is also apparent is a B1G championship game without either Ohio State or Michigan is a ratings disaster and poorly attended. Do you know how to make it more likely one of them is in the game? Put them in the same division!
You can have expansion and hold on to your traditions. Buckeye Nation doesn't care what teams are in their division as long as one of them is Michigan. We'd gladly sacrifice a yearly matchup with Penn State to make this happen though I'm not sure why you'd want to do that. I'd think sending your top three media draws into the 1st and 4th media markets every year would make a lot of sense.
OSU/UM/PSU/MD/Rutgers: That's 5 teams for the EAST division. Fill in the rest with whomever else you'd like. We don't care.
Decisions are being made right now determine the divisional lineup and who knows if there is going to be another chance to fix this. We need to know our athletic director understands what is important. Ohio State and Michigan made this league and our athletic director needs to say it loud and proud.
Win us back Gene! All you have to do is publicly announce is that you are going to Chicago to make our case. Use every bit of political power that being the leader of the most popular (and hated) football team in America can wield. Just make it happen.
Ohio State - Michigan : Same Division!


Monday, December 3, 2012

BCS Bowl Chaos & the non-BCS league dilemma


Yesterday the internet exploded when traditional powers Georgia and Oklahoma were excluded from the BCS to let in MAC champion Northern Illinois.  Here’s the matchup’s that set up the furor:

Champion: Notre Dame vs. Alabama

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs. Kansas State

Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Louisville

Orange Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Florida State

The Championship game and the Fiesta bowl look like good matchups but the other three appear to be mismatches.  I expect ratings to be as bad as last year which is what led the Presidents/ADs to finally allow a playoff.  One of the reasons for the uproar is the Final BCS standings:

1  Notre Dame (1st at large)
2  Alabama (SEC Champ)
3  Florida (2nd at large)
4  Oregon (3rd at large)
5  Kansas State (B12 Champ)
6  Stanford (Pac 12 Champ)

7  Georgia
8  LSU
9  Texas A&M
10 South Carolina
11 Oklahoma

12 Florida State (ACC Champ)
13 Oregon State
14 Clemson
15 Northern Illinois (Small school qualifier)
16 Nebraska

The Big Ten champ Wisconsin was 26th and the Big East champ Louisville was 21st in the final standings. 

4 teams ranked higher than 12 are in a BCS game.  When you consider that 10 teams make it into the BCS fans have a right to feel upset.  SEC fans feel they should have at least 1 more team but there is a rule that a conference can only have two participants.  One complication that hasn’t happened since 2007 is Notre Dame had a good year they took one at large position.  Then there is the weak champions from the ACC, B1G, and Big East.  The most controversial entrant is Northern Illinois who got in using the rule that Utah/TCU/Boise State’s success created.  All these schools are now in BCS conferences but it was created to forestall government intervention into the bowl system.  It guarantees one small school from a non-BCS conference a spot if they meet 2 rules: the team is ranked better than 16 and the team is ranked ahead of two BCS champions.  Northern Illinois met this and they had to be given a spot.

Someone on the O-Zone made the comment that the NCAA caused their own mess.  By penalizing Ohio State and Penn State they weakened the B1G to the point that gave a 3rd place Wisconsin a spot in the B1G championship game.  If neither is penalized then the game features an undefeated Ohio State or a 2 loss (at most) Penn State vs Nebraska.  Both teams would have been ranked in the top 10 as would the winner of the championship game.  The matchups would look something like:

Ohio State vs Notre Dame
Alabama vs Stanford
Florida vs Oregon
Oklahoma vs Florida St
Kansas St vs Louisville

Even if Penn State or Nebraska won it would have looked something like this:

Notre Dame vs Alabama
Stanford vs Penn St/Nebraska
Florida vs Oregon
Oklahoma vs Florida St
Kansas St vs Louisville

Television would have loved these matchups and ratings would have set records.  It’s really too bad as I’m only looking forward to the Rose Bowl and the BCS game right now.  We are stuck with this system for another year and then the bowls will be allowed to pick whomever they choose and not be beholden to rules that don’t work.

Sports Illustrated did a mock with a bunch of people that would make up the selection committee and the discussion was much different than I expected.  Polls and computer rankings were used but who is playing the best at the end of the year and gut feeling also played a part.  It was an interesting look at the troubles facing this committee in a year I thought would be easy but after looking closer it isn’t.  Notre Dame, Alabama, Stanford, and Kansas St. are the obvious subjects with 3 conference champs and 1 at large but Florida and Oregon are difficult to ignore.  The consensus from the men in the mock was that they need to expand it to 8 which is the best solution in my opinion.  An eight team playoff would have the six I mentioned and then it would depend on how they set it up.  If you go with five automatic qualifiers then Florida State and Wisconsin would be included.  Otherwise it would probably be Georgia and Oklahoma (no way they let 4 SEC teams in the playoff).

The new system is set up to put the major conferences into major bowls but the little guys are getting squeezed out of the picture.  That's why I hope the non-BCS qualifiers come to their senses and create their own system.  There is no doubt in my mind that when college football switches to a system where the bowls can get whoever they want the matchups will always exclude the small schools.  There is talk of adding a 6th bowl to accommodate them but that is a bit funny since that is the same reason they added the 5th game.

The system for the future is taking shape but what about the small schools that are getting shut out in 2014?

In my opinion they should try for is a payout double to what they get now (approx. $100,000 per school) plus a guarantee that if they are in the top 6 AP/Coaches poll they will be included in the playoff.  The sad truth for many of these schools is even if they go get to a major bowl they lose money because of ticket guarantees they can’t meet (UConn lost $2million to go to the Fiesta Bowl).  Big schools are attractive for bowls because their fans travel and bring 20,000+ fans into the local economy and spend $1000 each on flights/hotel rooms/food/etc.  Small schools only benefit to bowls is in television and ESPN/Fox only pay top dollar for something that will attract viewers.  It is a situation begging for a small school playoff played at modest sized stadiums.

There are 6 small conferences right now though some might argue the ACC should be included:

Sunbelt
Conference USA
Big East
MidAmerican
Mountain West
Western Athletic

I was surprised on Saturday to find there was no big game until 5 pm.  The SEC is a 5pm game, the B1G was at 8PM, and so was the ACC.  The MAC and the Pac12 played on Friday night.  The leagues do this because I’m sure the networks have told them the ratings are better at those times.  The earlier games on Saturday were a mishmash of small schools and Big 12 games that no one cared about.   The small schools need to take advantage of this situation and give people quality football played between teams that are playing for something. 

It would be easy to convince the NCAA of an 8 team playoff for the small schools.  If the small schools agreed to this, the big schools would agree to most anything so they can avoid litigation and government interference.  It would be easy to accomplish as all they’d need to do is rank the teams and form playoff brackets with seeds 1-4 having first round home games.  The Big East and the MAC have gotten people used to watching them on Thursday so put one game there and other three on Saturday morning.  Stagger the Saturday starts so that the first begins at 11am and the last will end just before 5pm.  That allows everyone to watch the ending of every game.  The key is to hook them so they watch the bowl and championship game.  As the NCAA tournament has proved, people are more willing to watch if they know something about a team.

How would it look this year? (Team (Conference) – AP Rank)

N Illinois (MAC) – 16
Utah ST (WAC) – 18
Boise St (MWest) - 20
Louisville (Big East) - 22
San Jose St (At large) - 24
Kent St (At large) - 25
Arkansas St (Sunbelt) - 36
Tulsa (C-USA) – 38

The schools/conferences would make money on these home games and it would create interest for the winners in the semifinals which would be given a slot between Christmas and New Years with no competition (ideally a Saturday).  The losers could play in the Motor City Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl, or where ever they can negotiate.

It’s a win/win and whoever wins the championship will have something very special to celebrate.  If a team has continual success then perhaps a team will gain a following that the big bowls can’t ignore.

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Maryland/Rutgers added to B1G –What does it mean?

Yesterday the Big Ten added a 13th member in Maryland and today will add Rutgers.  My first reaction was to get upset as the traditionalist in me hates expansion and what it will do to our traditional rivalries.  If you forget, 14 teams means we have two divisions of 7 and with a six game division schedule.  That leaves 2 games for interdivision and with one protected (Michigan), we will see the other teams in the division once every 6 years.  Even if they add another conference game we will only see teams like Nebraska and Iowa, once every 3 years.  Replacing more frequent matches against these teams with Rutgers and Maryland makes me sad and it is probably going to get worse as I don’t think it is done.

That leads to the question – Why is the Big Ten doing this?

The answer is easy.  Money.

I’m sure many people’s first reaction was …. Maryland? Rutgers? That’s stupid!

At first glance it seems like this as neither school has much of a football tradition.  Neither school sells out their stadium which are half the size of Ohio State’s.  What makes them more attractive than schools with more football history like Pitt, Syracuse, or West Virginia?

This addition isn’t exciting to football fans but college president love this for three reason: 1) TV market, 2) Political access and 3) Research.

    1. TV Market – As I’ve written before there are two parts to the B1G fees. There’s the 1st tier games that will be broadcast nationally and 2nd tier that will be broadcast on BTN. 
      • 1st tier - The B1G is renegotiating its TV contract for football and basketball and the recent trend is to sign them for 15 years. That’s a long time and the B1G needs to do whatever possible to be attractive to Fox/ESPN/CBS/etc.  Adding teams near the big markets of New York, Washington DC, and Baltimore makes the league more attractive.  It wouldn’t shock me to hear that the TV networks have pushed for this because they know these markets are untapped.
      • 2nd tier – The B1G charges $.10 to cable companies in states without a B1G team and $1.10 for states with a B1G team.  These schools are surrounded by huge populations.
        • The odds are pretty good that the B1G will be added to basic in Maryland because of the popularity of Terrapin basketball.  At an estimate of 2 million households that’s an extra $2 million PER MONTH.  That alone pays for Maryland’s entry.
        • It’s trickier in Rutgers as the pull for that school isn’t great in New York.  The interesting thing is Fox just bought YES which broadcasts the Yankees.  Fox is the majority owner of the BTN and it isn’t a huge stretch to see them pair the two to force New York cable companies to buy the Big Ten Network as well.
    2. Political Access – One thing that was mentioned yesterday was that the Big Ten is opening an East Coast office to support the schools in this area.  The location is going to be interesting and will tell volumes of what the league expects from this office. 
      • Philadelphia – The midpoint of the three eastern teams is Philadelphia.  This happens to be the hometown of Comcast which is the largest cable provider in the country. 
      • Washington DC – Maryland is close to these schools but if they locate here I’d expect it to be a lobbying office which I will get into more in point #3.
      • New York – The media companies all have a strong presense here and the home of ESPN (Bristol, Conn) is right up the road.
      • Other – I doubt it would be located somewhere else but if the B1G expands elsewhere in the east it could affect the location.
    3. Research –
      • It is no secret that research departments are going to experience a period of reduced budgets.  Federal and state governments are deep in debt and have to make cutbacks.  That means schools will have to do more with less and cooperation with organizations like the Big Ten’s CIC will be more important.
      • I touched on a secondary consideration in point #2.  If the B1G opens their branch in Washington it would be a great place to work on lobbying the government for additional dollars.  It can’t hurt the league to have a presence at the major universities in the states of New Jersey and Maryland.  The political votes in two heavily populated states help too.
      • 10 of the current B1G members are ranked in the top 55 of research spending.  Maryland is 39th and Rutgers is 57th.  This represents almost a quarter of the top 50 research universities and the fact they work together means makes them an attractive destination for funds.
    4. Olympic sports - The Big Ten has 12 of the top 48 in the Director’s cup standings which measures overall program success (Ohio State is the highest at #4).  Maryland is 27th and Rutgers is 111th.  Both programs have certain programs where they excel but Rutgers is definitely is a dog in this regard but they have lots of potential.
    5. Fertile recruiting grounds – Something that I mentioned yesterday on the Ozone forums which Gerd copied and a few other Buckeye columnists copied (/pat-myself-on-the-back).
      • 2013 3+ Star recruits per 247 / Rivals
        • Maryland - 46 / 35
        • New Jersey - 41 / 33
        • Indiana - 26 / 26
        • Illinois - 36 / 37
        • Wisconsin - 9 / 14
        • Minnesota - 5 / 5
        • Michigan - 32 / 34
        • Pennsylvania - 39 / 33
        • Iowa - 6 / 6
        • Nebraska - 3 / 4
        • Ohio - 80 / 91
      • The population that runs through New York, New Jersey, Maryland, N Virginia, and E Pennsylvania is one of the largest in the world.  The colleges in this area are mostly private and have de-emphasized scholarship sports.  Rutgers changed this trend in the early 1990s but still have a long ways to go.  The key for B1G schools is they can recruit the east coast and tell parents they can not only see their kids on TV but now see them in person.

The overriding theme in every one of these points is that by adding these two schools you lock down more of the country than you would with many other more successful programs.

    • There are many ways to look at areas with the propensity to support a football team but the best is possibly to look at the NFL.
      • Currently the B1G has Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Indianapolis, Chicago, Green Bay, St. Louis and Kansas City.
      • Adding these two teams is like adding Philadelphia, New York, Baltimore, and Washington.
      • If the NCAA ever consolidates to make a league like the NFL they’ve already locked down these markets.
      • As a side note, Syracuse and Boston College makes some sense to get Buffalo/New England but I’m not sure either make sense academically and no other schools are much better.
      • To the south Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia Tech only add Atlanta and Carolina which would be split with other schools.

In essence, these two schools have the greatest potential to lock down more fans and biggest payback for the Big Ten that are also great research institutions and close to the financial, media, and political power in the country.  That’s why the decision was made to add Rutgers and Maryland.  Only time will tell if it was a good one.

Monday, November 19, 2012

I"m so tired of the Gene Smith apologists

I'm talking about the people that say if we self accessed a bowl ban last year we would have gotten another year.  Here's an argument I've fought repeatedly:
I stipulate that Gene Smith is an idiot & should be fired. However, there was always going to be a 2012 bowl ban...There is nothing Smith could have done to prevent it...with the possible exception of banning Bobby Di from the program the day he (Smith) was hired.
My response:
You don't know this and it is most likely it would have been 1 yr. Why? USC got 2 years for LOIC. We were barely FtM.  The NCAA doesn't go against precedent and while Gene Smith thought there was no precedent for a 1 year ban there definitely wasn't precedent for a 2 year ban. They'd need a LOIC charge and that didn't happen.
His response:

You (and a lot of others don't get it). Ohio State was a REPEAT OFFENDER w/that FTM. The hammer was coming down. 

I clarified my statement as I hate getting into specifics with the NCAA as it always takes paragraphs and still isn't enough because all of their cases are messy.
The only case where a school got a two year ban without a LOIC was the Alabama Albert Means case in 2002.  If you don't remember that's where it was proven that multiple Alabama boosters were giving money to Alabama recruits a few years after they'd been caught doing the same thing in the mid 90s.  The only thing that saved the school was the NCAA couldn't prove a direct link to the school in directing the payments.  That saved them from a LOIC but the NCAA charged them similarly.
 Ohio State's football program was only repeat offender because an individual football case that was promptly dealt with (Troy Smith's $500 payout) was included with the O'Brien's scandal.  The Compliance Group felt the football program would be exempt from repeat violator penalties because cases against players are handled differently than cases against programs.   
Even though BobbyD gave us a FtM the two combined pale in comparison to Alabama's situation that was lucky to not get a LOIC.  You can look at the penalties to see how the NCAA viewed the severity.
  • Alabama lost 21 scholarships and a two year bowl ban
  • OSU lost 9 scholarships and a one year bowl ban. 
Are we to believe that because we self imposed a bowl ban last season that the NCAA would have upped the bowl ban out of spite?  The scholarships give a clue about how the NCAA felt about the severity of the two cases and they just don't arbitrarily give longer sentences because we proactively gave ourselves a bowl ban during a bad season and they didn't feel it was harsh enough.  It would create precedent they'd need to live with forever.
A good example is the USC situation.  They took 2 years pre-emptively while protesting the scholarship reduction.  This season they are bowling while the scholarship reductions started this year.
I understand people wanting to believe this as they want to see the NCAA as an arbitrary monster that needs to be struck down. It is really a bunch of lawyers using a set of overly complex rules to govern something that is impossible to govern.  They have little authority to actively police the schools and I'm sure they feel helpless at times.  College sports is tailor made for abuse and while the penalties can seem arbitrary when you look at case law there is precedent and a methodology for every thing they do. That leaves little room to give Ohio State another year 'just cause they felt like it'.

Sunday, October 28, 2012

A crazy thought on Braxton Miller

Braxton Miller is the main reason Ohio State is 9-0 right now mostly by using his legs.  Here are his stats on the year:

Rushing 166-1093 yds, 12 TDS, 6.6 ypc
Passing 112-198, 12 TDs 6 Int’s, 135.3 rating

He’s being considered for the Heisman and most likely will be in attendence but lose out to someone on a team eligible to play in a bowl.

After watching last night’s game I began to wonder if there were times where we were using him incorrectly and getting the most from this offense.  A case in point is almost the entirety of the first half.  Braxton made continual bad reads on the option and it seemed like he determined before the play what he was going to do. This was made worse by his continued struggles in the passing game.  He missed open receivers, didn’t go through his progressions and stayed in the pocket until it was too late to escape the pass rush. 

These issues are all common for a true sophomore quarterback and it is scary to think how good he could be by his senior year.  This season however we have the following situation:

Running: One of the top 5 in the country
Passing: Needs at least another year plus film study
Decision Making: Making the wrong call around half the time because the game is still moving too fast
Pocket Presence: Poor
Receiving: Unknown

Looking at that you might think I’m not a fan of Braxton and I want to reiterate that this is a situation where he’s just young.  It does make me wonder if there is another option.  One that utilzes Braxton’s main talent of running the ball and hides his deficiencies in passing and decision making.

The inclusion of receiving on the list above gives away my ‘crazy solution’.  Move him into Corey Brown’s spot and Kenny Guiton to quarterback.

Not on every play as it would be crazy but I’d love to see this for a few series/plays a game.  Corey Brown has the surest hands on the team and we don’t want to lose him.  Saying that, I’d love to see how the offense works with Kenny making the decisions/passes with Braxton in the slot.  Every play he’d go in motion behind the line with Devin Smith releasing downfield.  Based on keys Guiton could 1)hand off to Braxton if they bunch up the middle, 2) hand off to Hyde if the middle is open, or 3) pass it to Devin Smith or a releasing tight end if there’s a favorable matchup.  There are many variation off of the play and I know it sounds crazy but it wouldn’t shock me to see something like this at Michigan.

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Ohio State vs. the top 25

I was looking at the top 25 and thinking there are a lot of teams behind the Buckeyes that are better due to the current state of our defense.  This team has obvious issues vs the spread offense due to their lack of playmakers at linebacker and safety so I thought it might be fun to predict how the team would do against the rest of the top 25.

L  Alabama Crimson Tide – We’d do better than Michigan but not by much
L  Oregon Ducks – The defense would struggle to stop them
-   Florida Gators – I think we could hang with them as they played the same D last year and our O is better
W Kansas St. Wildcats – Snyder is a miracle worker but we win this one
L  Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Their D could stop us which would let them score enough to win
L  LSU Tigers – This is mainly on reputation as I’m not convinced yet that this team is for real
L  South Carolina Gamecocks – See LSU
W Oregon St. Beavers  - I don’t see it happening
L   Oklahoma Sooners They have the offensive firepower to beat us
-    Ohio St. Buckeyes – This would be a tie but a high scoring tie
-    Florida St. Seminoles – It depends on which Seminole team shows up.
L   USC Trojans This is a talented team and USC always shows up for the big games
L   Georgia Bulldogs – This is a talented team that seems to choke.  Cooperesque.
W  Mississippi St. Bulldogs -  I refuse to believe the 6th best team in the SEC is better than the Buckeyes
W  Louisville Cardinals – Big East teams are always overrated due to their schedule
-    Clemson Tigers – Boyd might win this game
-    West Virginia Mountaineers – Whoever scores last gets the Heisman
W    Texas Tech Red Raiders – Based mainly on their win vs West Virginia.  They won’t finish this high.
W    Rutgers Scarlet Knights - See Louisville
W    Texas A&M Aggies   - This is a decent team but not enough on offense to beat the Buckeyes
W    Cincinnati Bearcats  - See Louisville
W    Stanford Cardinal -
W    Ohio Bobcats – They might pull an upset but I doubt it
W    TCU Horned Frogs – They just lost their best player on offense.
-     Michigan Wolverines – This is always a tough game and Denard vs this Defense is scary.

I didn’t put a ton of thought into it and if I cared enough I would have looked at the stats for each team and offensive philosophies.  My guess is our record would be 11-8-6 vs the top 25.  Before the season I would have taken a team that good in a second. I just didn’t think the thing holding us back would be our defense.

We don’t deserve to go any higher until the defense puts back to back decent performances together.  Which I can’t imagine is going to happen based on what I’ve seen so far this season.

Sunday, October 14, 2012

Buckeye defensive woes continue

Last night the Buckeyes defensive issues continued in a 52-49 win over Indiana.  The high score is a bit amazing and even more so when you consider the score was 10-14 with 5 minutes left in the first half.  That means the score was 42-35 in a little more than a half.  Good offense but really bad defense.

The game wasn't as close as the final score as the defense has some huge mental breakdowns late in the game.  It is troubling though that the defense continues to give up big plays so I decided to watch the game in slow motion to see what is causing it.

1st quarter - 2 minutes left - OSU 10-Indiana 0 - Indiana on their 41 yard line (59 yd run)
Indiana lined up in the shotgun with one man in the backfield, a tight end to the short side and 3 receivers split to the wide side.   The play was a simple handoff left designed to go the short side between Left Guard and Tackle.  The Buckeye defense line was Simon on the Right side (from the Indiana point of view), Hale at right tackle, Goebells at left tackle and Spence at left end.  The line double teamed Hale and did straight up blocking on the rest of the left side.  The Indiana left tackle pushed Goebells back and the tight end destroyed Spence.  As Ohio State didn't put anyone over the Indiana right guard, the line call pulled the guard into the designed hole.
The odd thing is as the right side was overloaded with 3 receivers, one safety and the nickel back shifted to line up over them.  In addition, the other safety (Bryant) lined up as if he was covering the deep right half on the right side as well.  The way the safeties lined up, the left corner (Roby) seemed to have responsibility for the left half of the field but he was lined up as if he was covering the short zone and expecting help from deep middle.
When the running back hit the hole, Goebbels was blocked and Spence was blocked.  Shazier filled the hole but didn't see the guard coming who kicked him out and the running back ran inside him.  , Roby attempted to get there but the play was too far inside for him to close.  It fell to Bryant who was 15 yards off the ball and beyond the right hash and he barely made it into the television screen as the running back raced for a score.
 I think the blame for the big play falls on Bryant who seems like he was out of position and took a bad read.  Certainly credit has to goto the Indiana offense who executed the play well for a touchdown.
1st Quarter - 30 seconds left - OSU 10 - Indiana 7 - Ohio State punt (blocked)
Camren Williams misread the play and helped Boren double team to his right while the guy to his left ran in unblocked.  Indiana also lined up one more person wide to the right than we had blockers and he would have had a good shot at making a block even if Williams man didn't get there first.  That may have been Williams issue.  It seems he assumed that everyone would shift over a man which is why he blocked the way he did.
 Part of the issue is the Buckeye are sending 5 men sprinting downfield to cover the punt (2 wide on each side and the long snapper) and when the other side only initially drops 4 for the return like Indiana did on this play you have 5 on 7 situation.
I'd say some of this is scheme and but the block probably wouldn't happen without Williams' misread.
2nd Quarter - 14:30 - OSU 10 - Indiana 7 - Indiana on OSU's 10 yard line (10 yard run)
Simple run to the right.  Boren blitzed from the left linebacker spot and Shazier moved into his position.  The Indiana tackle on that side did a nice job reading the play and after sealing Boren inside moved downfield to take both Bryant and Barnett out of the play.  Shazier took a bad angle and the running back run into the end zone untouched.
This seems to be on Shazier, Bryant and Barnett as they had 3 on 1 blocker and couldn't make a tackle. 
 3rd Quarter - 14:30 - OSU 24 - Indiana 14 - Indiana on their 35 yard line (40 yard pass)
This was a simple situation where Indiana's best receiver was matched up against Doran Grant, the backup cornerback and he couldn't make a play.  Howard got banged up in the first half and they put Grant in to start the 2nd but after this and a bad pass interference on the next play Howard came back in.  Indiana got 3 points out of this drive almost entirely because of Grant's mistakes.  That's not a good sign for next year when both starting cornerbacks will likely be gone.
3rd Quarter - 9:30 - OSU 31 - Indiana 17 - OSU on the Indiana 4 (Interception)
I'm including this because it was so frustrating based on what happened right after this.  A score and Indiana starts to quit.  The bad decision to throw the ball late off his back foot kept them in the game.
 3rd Quarter - 8:50 - OSU 31 - Indiana 17 - Indiana on their 26 (74 yard pass)
Storm Klein took his drop a bit too deep covering the inside receiver and let the middle receiver (Shane Wynn from Glenville who'd look great in Urban's offense) cut over the middle for an easy 6 yard curl.  The deep help on the other side of the field (Bryant) got caught up with the receiver running a hook pattern.  Wynn cut behind this block taking both Bryant and Klein out of the play.  At this point it was a sprint to the end zone.
Shazier might have had a chance to make a play but Roby was blitzing from the right side and Shazier had responsibility for short coverage on that side.  The blitz meant Bryant had play up closer as well.  If Klein were a bit fast or Shazier reacted quicker this would might have been stopped but the real key was the play call was perfect for the defense Ohio State ran. 
4th Quarter - 1:40 - OSU 52 - Indiana 41 - Indiana on the OSU 25 (25 yard pass)
After a really bad onside kick call by the refs, Indiana scored a few plays later.  They got a good rush with 4 defensive linemen and forced a shovel pass.    Zach Boren missed the tackle, Bryant took a bad angle, and Roby got caught on the wrong side of the receiver he was guarding who pushed him out of the play.

As I re-watched this there weren't as many big plays as I remembered.  That's actually bad because it means that Indiana was scheming us which would have taken way too long to review.  Kevin Wilson really had done a nice job with the talent at Indiana and I wonder if are going to make a push for the top half of the league in the future.

The players I am really liking on offense right now is Braxton, Corey (don't call me Philly) Brown,  Carlos Hyde, and Rod Smith.  I'm sure many would include Devin Smith as well but he's dropping too many easy passes right now.  The offensive line has been a nice surprise all season too.

Defensively it is hard to say.  Simon, Big Hank, and Roby all seem to be exceptional but without reviewing each play it is hard to say.  The bad thing is poor linebacker and safety play overshadows everything.  One bright spot is Zach Boren led the team in tackles at middle linebacker despite not playing the position since high school.  As he gets comfortable he might be a real nice surprise.

It should be interesting to hear Urban Meyer's comments this week after he looks at the film.

Saturday, October 13, 2012

The delusion continues in Happy Valley

One of my shameful secrets this past year is how much time I've spent reading threads over at Blue and White Illustrated.  That's a Penn State Rivals.com website that is one of the teams most popular forums so it gives a good idea of their fan's opinions.

This past week there was a thread on BWI titled "Completely absurd that people are claiming 'of a sexual nature' is equivalent to MM having conveyed that he just WITNESSED criminal sexual assault".  I thought one person summed the whole thing up nicely essentially stating that "Previous accusation + naked + shower + 60 year old man + 12 year old boy = Police".

The responses are really sad as the fans just can't let it go and want to protect Coach Paterno.  Here are some of them:
  • Paterno DID REPORT IT BY THE BOOK (i.e., PSU HR Manual) you blithering, obfuscating a-hole! Your full of crap that it isn't "relevant" -- MM went to Paterno to make an HR Report (Dr. Dranov's testimony confirms this quite clearly). He did not go to Paterno and allege seeing CRIMINAL sexual assault (i.e., it is impossible to allege WITNESSING criminal sexual assault without witnessing a sex act of any kind!). The people who screwed up "the investigation" were above Paterno and they absolutely had all THE FACTS they needed to make the correct decisions but still failed THEIR OBLIGATIONS! 
  • The text comes from a transcript of testimony that was transcribed unprofessionally. Simply read the two sentences of Joe's statement regarding this matter. Where he seems to contradict himself. Then have the sense to understand the first statement was a statement of incredulity or you could say a interrogatory in the form of a statement. Joe did this all the time... repeating what he was asked...then giving his response. The transcriber should have typed....something to the effect...."It was of a sexual nature(?)" Then Joe's supposedly contradictory response.... not: "It was of a sexual nature(.)" then Joe's response. It's not that damn complex. 
  • It is absurd for people to keep saying that "of a sexual nature" amounts to a de facto description of a CRIMINAL sexual assault (i.e., no internal investigation of the matter required????). Simply absurd.
  • ["It seems to me that the only fair criticisms of Joe would be if he discouraged the administration from reporting the incident to DPW."] ---- Joe never changed anyone's mind. All Freeh would have had to have done was read Curley's 26 pages of Grand Jury testimony and put it together with the February 12th meeting that was documented between Curley and Schultz. Curley was asked over and over and over again in the Grand Jury as to how he came about making his decision, what it was based on, and who influenced him. Joe had nothing to do with it. 
  • Anybody saying that Joe was part of some conspiracy and was part and parcel to this whole thing is wrong. No sense trying to convince them otherwise more than trying to convince somebody the world is not flat. The only thing anybody can say about Joe is that being who he was and what he stood for and his ultimately high moral character, we wish he would have followed up a little harder with C/S/S on what the end outcome was.
There are threads like this that happen at least once a week.  Penn State fans are more than willing to through the administrators under the bus but still protect Joe.  They blame the board and the governor more about the situation than the coach who was the face of the school for almost half a century and was the first person told of the incident.

If I look at this from an apologist angle I can understand how this happened.  All you have to do is look at the amount of national publicity Pizza-Gate got this week in Columbus to see why Penn State acted as it did.  Any top program is hesitant to release any information they aren't 100% sure because even small items becomes national news overnight.  As a result, a culture of protection that has been built up over decades at many programs that includes players, coaches, administrators, alumni, fans and local media.  If you view the scandal in that light it is easy to see what happened.  In 1998, Sandusky was accused of molesting a child but the DA investigated and the case was dropped.  Three years later Mike McQuery sees something that he thinks is of a sexual nature between Sandusky and a young boy.

When you face a harassment claim two things always muddy the issue, namely perception and reputation.  The facts are rarely as clear cut as the initial discussion and most times can be resolved behind closed doors with a quick investigation and quick disciplinary action.  One of the keys is most times it is kept entirely quiet.  Imagine if every time a Fortune 500 company had a claim like this it was put in the Wall Street Journal.  The reputation and stock price of that company would take a hit.  The managers and the employee involved would be forever tainted and never able to work again even if the process proved that it was all a misunderstanding.  That's why there is always a reluctance to speak in publicity situations.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying I agree with Penn State's actions I'm just saying that I understand how it could happen.  They were faced with a situation where a man who had worked with children for over 20 years and had already been investigated once and nothing was found and again faced with an accusation.  It is normal not to want deal with something like this because if nothing is found the accused, the victim, the whistleblower, the school, and the reputation of all involved is harmed forever and nothing you do can change it.

I want to restate that I know that Penn State made egregious mistakes.  In any organization the first thing you do is get Human Resources/Legal involved.  If it is criminal you get the police involved.  If it is less than that you investigate and document your findings.  Penn State did none of this because they wanted to protect the school and the reputation of a man that worked there from 30 years.  In hindsight their actions are certainly wrong and in some cases, criminal.

The worst part of all this is Bill O'Brien has done a fantastic job of keeping his team focused as they are now 4-2 and undefeated in the Big Ten.  It's the type of comeback story that Americans love but Penn State fan's focus on the past is making it impossible for anyone to root for their team.

I am well aware to paint all fans with a broad brush using posts from a website is unfair.  If this happened at Ohio State I know the lunatic fringe on the O-Zone website would be saying similar things.  For anyone who doubts that all you need to do is go back a year to the Jim Tressel scandal and see the posts regarding a simple case of him hiding/lying for his players when they broke NCAA rules.  It took almost six months before the majority of posters accepted the truth but even today there is the occasional thread that claims that "Tressel took the hit for the university" or my personal favorite "Tressel is still working with the FBI in a sting operation and saying more would hurt an ongoing investigation."

This level of delusion happens at all big programs and it is what causes some fans to go too far and do things like poison your opponents trees.  It's just sad to see what is happening in Happy Valley and I've got to force myself to stop reading the BWI website as it is not fun to watch them continue to mire in their delusion.

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Ohio State moving to an all BCS scheduling policy

When Ohio State announced they were scheduling TCU they added a statement that,

“As we move forward, from 2018 and out, our goal is BCS only. We are looking at top ranked teams, 1-50 teams.”

That is good news for fans going to the games as one of the reason’s I stopped buying season tickets about ten years ago is that the bad games far outweighed the good games.  When I started buying tickets in 1990 the face value was $18.  Back then the season was 11 games so you could expect about 6 home games a year.  4 of those were Big Ten games which usually meant we had at least one game to look towards and one of the ‘preseason’ home games.  I remember writing the first check for season tickets as they cost me $128 for a 6 game 1992 season.

Ironically that was the first season that Ohio State ever played a team from the MAC.  It had been since the 1930s that Ohio State had scheduled decidedly inferior opposition (Drake in 1935 is probably the best example).  Every season you could count on 4 Big Ten games and 1-2 non-conference games against teams with a state name (and no direction preceding it).

Fast forward to the mid 2000s and tickets had jumped to over $60 and the last check I wrote was for 8 games and with special charges and processing fees it was over $500.  Those were cheap compared to what my company paid.  Buckeye club tickets were cost $2,000 to join and then you had the opportunity to buy 2 season tickets at $500 each.  When you did the math it was ridiculous and I started watching the games at home.  I could easily afford the tickets but that wasn’t the issue.  In 1995 I wanted to see 1 game – Texas.  I spent $400 on 2 tickets and took my dad to see the game and still saved money.  The rest I watched from the comfort of my home.

Many people are coming to the same realization.  Ohio Stadium had trouble selling out its preseason tickets this year for the first time since the woeful teams of the late 80s.  Even then people didn’t show up to the games because the teams were so bad.  Ohio State isn’t the only team to do this and in fact, the last few weeks have only had a couple of top twenty teams facing one another.  It seems it seems to me that some ADs (Gene Smith in particular) have decided it is in their best interest to improve the competition to increase the demand for tickets.

The other thing that is happening is that television has been paying a ton of money for broadcasting rights but games like Ohio State – UAB isn’t turning on dials.  Ohio State isn’t alone as last weekend, the Buckeye game with Michigan State game was the premier game of the weekend and was the only real place possible for Gameday to travel. With the influx of many Division 1AA (FCS) teams into Division 1A the quality is getting more and more diluted. 

The process started in the early 80s when teams like Oklahoma sued the NCAA to be able to determine their own television rights.  Before then there was usually only 2-3 games on each Saturday and now every year has increased the number of games and spread to different nights.  While once it was in teams best interest to play the best to get on television that flipped in the 80s and ended when the BCS started.  Now it seems to be going the other way which is a good thing.

The offset of this is two fold. 

First is the likelihood that Ohio State will have more losses but my suspicion is it won’t matter as all they will need to do is win the Big Ten to get into the 4 team championship.

The other issue is that the days of 4 preseason home games is going away and we’d only have 2.  This will reduce season ticket prices as the days of 8 home games like this year would be over.  That would reduce income as we’d only get $1 million from most away teams and make about $5 million from home dates.  That means a loss of $8 million per year but if it safeguards to the milliions of Buckeye club and season ticket prices then it would be worth it.  You can expect that there will also be ticket price increases so that face is closer to $100 if quality improves.

One last thing this made me think about is this might be a hint that the B1G is headed for a 9 game conference schedule by 2018.  The league wants more marketable games and OSU-UAB doesn’t fit that bill.  Either way it sounds good for Ohio State fans as we will be getting better games to watch in the near future.

Thursday, September 27, 2012

When was the last Buckeye football game that generated excitement?


An interesting question was asked by someone on the football board yesterday which makes the title of this post.  He was shouted down by the Buckeye faithful as a troll and even worse, a fan of that school up north. 

I don’t think people were giving the question proper merit.  Here’s the schedule so far this season:

Miami (OH)
Central Florida
California
UAB

Only California is a BCS school and even then they’ve never been a relevant football power except for the short time that Aaron Rodgers was behind center.  None of those games are exciting and the malaise is readily apparent in the stadium.  I can personally attest this as I went to see the Buckeyes vs my alma mater and it felt like someone had slipped valium in the stadium’s beverages.

Then again why should the fans get excited.  They expected going in that these games were going to be a blowout and only Buckeye defensive woes kept any of them close.  The only thing the Buckeyes have to play for is the B1G Leaders championship and none of these games affected that.  In my opinion, that makes the original question very fair as I realized I didn’t really care about a single game.

Then I thought back to last season.  It was a season full of angst about NCAA sanctions, the loss of Jim Tressel as coach, and a poor product on the field.  Last seasons schedule wasn’t much better.

Akron 42 – 0
Toledo 27 – 22
@ Miami (Fl) 6 – 24
Colorado 37 - 17
Michigan State 7 – 10
@ Nebraska 27 – 34
@ Illinois 17 - 7
Wisconsin 33 - 29
Indiana 34 – 20
@ Purdue 23 - 26  (OT)
Penn State 14 – 20
@ Michigan 34 - 40
Florida 17-24

The non-conference schedule was somewhat boring though better than this season due to the addition of Miami (Fl).  Buckeye fans were excited about the away game until the Hurricanes lost to a bad Maryland team in the opening week.  When we lost to them we I think deep down we all finally realized that despite our hope the distractions of Tatgate and the loss of Jim Tressel was going to make it a long season.

I remember being excited for the Michigan State and Nebraska games but it was nothing like Texas in 2005 or Notre Dame in 1995.  In part it was because the week before the NCAA gave Ohio State players additional sanctions due to the BobbyD violations.  This reopened the possibility that we were going to have bigger penalties such as a bowl ban. When we lost both games the season lost any luster.  Though a surprising three game win streak gave us hope, it was lost in overtime against Purdue.  The last three games were against all-time powers, each lost by a touchdown but it didn’t feel the same.  There was a feeling of ‘next year’ to the team which was proved when Urban Meyer was hired.  For me that was the best feeling I had all season in 2011.  Not the game winner vs. Wisconsin, it was a press conference.

When you go to the previous season You have to go to the previous season to find a game I was really excited about. 

Marshall 45 - 7
Miami 36 - 24
Ohio 43 - 7
Eastern Michigan 73 - 20
@ Illinois 24 - 13
Indiana 38 - 10
@ Wisconsin 18 - 31
Purdue 49 - 0
@ Minnesota 52 - 10
Penn State 38 - 14
@ Iowa 20 - 17
Michigan 37 - 7
Arkansas 31 - 26

Looking at this list you’d think the bowl game would have been exciting as we beat an SEC team but Tatgate stole the pregame enjoyment for me.  It is always fun to beat Michigan and Penn State but JoePa and RichRod had taken those programs to the point where there wasn’t much build up.  There are two games that stand out in 2010.  The Miami game where the hope of the future seemed bright and the Wisconsin game.  Both were memorable and the leadup felt epic.  When we lost the Wisconsin game I remember being devastated.  Little did I know things were about to get much worse.

So when someone asks the question – what game were you last really excited about my answer is October 16, 2010 vs Wisconsin. 

A follow up question should be: when is the next game that will be truly exciting.

As we can’t goto a bowl game this year and Michigan has already lost to Notre Dame and Alabama I expect it will be at least 2013.  The 2013 preseason schedule is just as bad as this year and next year’s team should be really good so those games should be yawnfests.  It won’t get much better when we get to the Big Ten as both Nebraska and Michigan State are off our schedule.  That leaves Wisconsin that seems to be getting worse, Penn State that is headed to a decade of mediocrity, and Michigan.  Michigan has had a series of good recruiting classes and despite what some want to think, have a good coach.  I expect in 2013 both Ohio State and Michigan will be highly ranked all season.  It’s too bad it will be in Ann Arbor but I’m excited just thinking about it.

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Penn State penalties

Today a report on CBS said, "Emmert pleased with Penn State's response to sanctions". My whole feeling on Penn State has been pretty clear but one thing I haven't spoke about is the penalties.

One particular comment from Emmert annoyed me,
"As a criminal investigation, it was none of our business," he said. "And if, back in 1998, Penn State had heard about it and put a stop to it, it would have never been any of our business. When they didn't do that, it became our concern."
I have a problem with that statement.

I don't think there's any question the administrators at Penn State covered up a pedophile but the one thing I just don't understand is how Emmert feels the university's responsibility goes back to 1998. The police were involved and dropped the case. A year later Sandusky left their employment. Some may conclude from that the university strong armed the local DA and forced Sandusky to retire but there is no proof. Yet the NCAA dates their crimes from that date.

A real crime was committed and it occurred in 2001. Key administrators knew about Sandusky's past and any slight suspicion should have set off alarms. Instead it was never reported and the guilty will be prosecuted.

As a fan of Ohio State, I am very aware of the passion Penn State fans have for their team. I am surrounded by fans with similar types of fans as is Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma and countless others. College football is based on the passion of fans and if you penalize one then shouldn't you enact legislation to penalize them all? Instead they make periodic examples to try to control the beast as the monster that has become college football pays the bills for NCAA athletics.

I do think Penn State should have gotten penalized but something more like vacating their wins since 2001 and a 5 year probation which would be the time they had to enact the proposals in the Freeh report. Instead they got penalties that will cripple the program and take it out on the current athletes that were in elementary school when the crime occurred.

The worst thing about this whole ruling is by doing it many think they are getting tough when in fact, college football is as out of control as ever. Money does that and until the college presidents accept that college football has grown to big and is now a professional enterprise, then then we will continue to see hypocrisies like penalizing Penn State back to 1998 to give the impression they are actually in control.

Saturday, September 8, 2012

The Cleveland Browns and Art Modell–One family’s story

Art Modell died this week and I have mixed feelings about it.  I believe he wasn’t a bad man but rather a weak man that had a vision of what pro football was going to become long before anyone else.  It made him rich but it didn’t make him a great despite what anyone says on television.  It doesn’t even make him a good businessman.  When he moved my Browns in 1995, I made a promise to myself – some day I’m going to piss on that man’s grave.  Now that the day has finally arrived, I have a decision to make.

When I was growing up the most imposing figure in my life was my maternal grandfather.  He was pretty tall at 6’1” which to my child's eyes made him a giant.  I especially remember his huge hands that he put to good use all his life.  When his parents fell on hard times he quit school and got a job at 14.  When WW2 started, he was 27 and like most men of his era he volunteered to serve.  He first tried to get into submarines but shortly before deployment was declared 4F for having flat feet/fallen arch (a malady we share).  He could have come home and avoided service but instead he spent his years at the Great Lakes Naval Training Center working in the auto pool.  One of his jobs working in the auto pool was driving the bus.  I always wondered how that made a proud man like my grandfather feel but it was his way to serve and I’m sure he did it without complaint.  It wasn’t all bad as one of the perks of the job was driving the football team to their games.  This may sound small but in in wartime America it was huge. 

Great Lakes always had a football team but it was mostly around as a diversion.  When war broke out everything changed.  During the 1942 – 1944 college seasons, you see unfamiliar names like Iowa Pre-Flight, Fort Knox Armoraiders, and the Great Lakes Bluejackets.  These teams were filled with men who had been drafted and the local commander stocked their teams with former college All-Americans instead of putting them through training and sending them off to war.  This was common practice at the time as it was felt that by continuing the games, it allowed servicemen a brief respite from the war.  It started slowly but by the end of the 1944 season the AP top 20 had 12 teams affiliated with the armed forces (plus 4 B1G teams which stashed many good players on their teams too).

My grandfather drove the team bus throughout his service at Great Lakes meeting many former and future football stars but the most lasting relationship was formed when Paul Brown took over the team in 1944.  Paul Brown’s coaching philosophy was decades ahead of his peers and it didn’t take long for my grandfather to be one of his biggest fans.  Fast forward a few years and now my grandfather is starting a trucking company while Paul Brown put together a team called the Cleveland Browns.

Paul Brown dominated the next decade of professional football using methods that most of his competitors eventually copied.  His teams were in the championship game of the league for the next 10 years, winning 4 AAFC championships and 3 NFL championships.  In 1956, the players that Brown had signed after World War 2 were starting to get old and the team had its first losing season.  Brown and the Browns retooled and 2 years later were 3 points away from facing the Colts in the 1957 NFL championship.  Today we mark this game as when America discovered the NFL on TV but not many at the time saw just how much the game was going to change.  At the time, Art Modell was living in New York working as an advertising executive and he certainly noticed.

Throughout all of this my grandfather became an avid follower of the Browns.  My mother always described football Sundays in the Bennett household as a very tense affair.  Everyone knew the afternoon would be much happier if the Browns won.  Luckily for her childhood, they usually won.
In 1961, Art Modell bought the Cleveland Browns and immediately clashed with Paul Brown.  Brown was an autocrat while the 35 year old Modell was gregarious and became close to many players on the team.  Modell was a nice guy but as any management book will tell you, treating employees as friends leads to trouble but initially it lead to Brown’s ouster.  Paul Brown’s final record with Cleveland was 158-48-8 with 6 championships in 17 seasons.
My grandfather cursed Modell for his firing of Paul Brown but I don’t think he ever wavered in his loyalty to Cleveland.  He had formed a bond with the team over the past 15 years and the Browns were Ohio’s team. 

I often wonder about the loyalty we have to our sports teams.  To an outsider it seems silly, spending so much of our time and energy on something that in the grand scheme is meaningless.  Football generates no tangible product.  The uniforms are just pieces of cloth.  The players are essentially hired mercenaries who are paid to represent the team.  Their wins and losses mean nothing other than bragging rights.  Yet the intangible results mean so much to everyone involved.  It links people and communities and if you see someone years after an event, reminiscing of a particular play links people to a place-time in ways that few other things can.

Modell’s Browns had immediate success using the team Paul Brown left him and won the NFL championship in 1964.  Anyone that knows anything about Cleveland sports knows that this is the last time a Cleveland team has won a championship.  This is also the last time the Browns made it to a championship game.  The Browns continued to do well during the next decade going 102-48-4 but this success was no doubt helped by the fact that Modell volunteered to move to the weaker AFL in 1970.  By 1974 nothing could stop the Browns slide to mediocrity and the team had their second losing season since their formation.

I was 7 years old in 1974 and just starting to learn about football.  It would take a few more years before I actually could sit still for an entire game but some of my earliest memories are of family gatherings at my grandfather’s house waiting in the basement as my mother prayed upstairs for a Browns win.  I never noticed anything wrong with my grandfather’s demeanor even though the Browns of that era were pretty bad.  It didn’t help that they were in the same division as the Pittsburgh Steelers who were just starting a run of dominance that has mostly continued to this day.  My grandfather had done well in business so he bought a big house and retired to a ‘farm’ outside of town but still only about 5 minutes from my parents house.  I learned later that one of the reasons he bought the place was so he could spend more time with his grandchildren.  The house sat on the top of a hill and behind it sat about 10 acres of mostly unspoiled land.  My grandfather had the title to the land but the truth was it was his grandchildren’s domain.  We fished in the pond he built, skipped rocks in the creek that went through the property, and tramped through the woods that formed the property’s boundary.  We had our grandfather in our pocket but we never really understood it at the time.  All we knew was we loved him and he was bigger than life. 

My favorite example of this was the day he showed up at my school and got me out of class.  When I got into his truck I saw he’d also gotten my cousin out and I’m sure we both had confused looks on our faces as my grandpa drove us out to his house.  When we got there he took us out to the meadow where now stood a regulation field goal post made up of the remnant of three small trees he’d cut from the woods.  I remember looking at my cousin and thinking to myself, “That’s really tall.”  I’d never been under a field goal post in my life and the next few weeks were filled with many attempts at trying to kick the ball over the goal post.  In hindsight I realize that building a goalpost for an 8 year old is a bit impractical.  It would be at least another 5 years before I’d have the leg strength to actually kick the ball that high but that didn’t phase my grandfather.  He wasn’t a very expressive man but the goalpost stood as mute testimony of his love until he sold the place.
As I got older I also started to obsessively follow the Browns.  Part of it is when kids start the process of breaking away from their parents they find other things to cling.  We moved into the city in the late 1970s and one of the ways I presented myself to the world was as a Cleveland Browns fan.  It was an easy transition for me.  My grandfather was a Browns fan and so was I.  The bus I rode to school was filled with Bengals fans and Steelers fans.  There was only one other Browns fan and we formed a bond such that he remains my best friend to this day.

It’s amazing how personal wins and losses can be for kids at that age.  After a few seasons of continued ribbing my faith in the Browns paid off in 1980 with the Kardiac Kids.  I vividly remember singing the “12 days of Browns Christmas” with my brother in the back of my dad's car as we drove to buy a Christmas tree that year.  I was sure Cleveland was headed to the “Sipe’r-bowl which was a popular saying that fall that intermeshed the team’s quarterback, Brian Sipe, and the Super Bowl.  Those hopes were dashed on a snowy December day in Cleveland by the Oakland Raiders and Red Right 88.  I remember I cried in my pillow until I fell asleep.

The next few years weren’t much better.  Modell was a forerunner of Jerry Jones only without Jerry’s cash.  Modell had a good man in the front office named Ernie Accorsi but Modell always made the ultimate decisions and as the Browns continued to lose they went through a quite a few coaches.  Patience was never his strong suit and he always clashed with strong willed coaches.  To me it always seemed like he also didn’t understand the value of good line play.  He was constantly working to improve our skill position players at the expense of the guys up front. 

One thing I didn’t understand at the time was all of Modell’s money came from football.  Unlike many other owners who had other companies making millions/billion in other areas, Modell was entirely dependent on the Browns for his livelihood.  Team values skyrocketed from the $4 million Modell paid in 1961 to over $100 million by the late 80s.  Players salaries also skyrocketed during this era as television money inflated everything.  Modell had a tricky balancing act as he had no safety net if team revenues suddenly declined.  Television money helped but ticket sales were the key.  Cleveland Municipal Stadium was one of the largest in the NFL and despite the results on the field they were always among the league leaders in attendance.  Cleveland loved the Browns as we all knew that next year would be better.

Behind the scenes, Modell had offered to take over management of aging Municipal Stadium in 1974 just as the Browns started their losing ways.  The lease was for 25 years and Modell made improvements to the facility, mostly to allow for luxury boxes that could bring in more income.  By the 1980s the stadium had become a league joke as the turf was nothing more than painted dirt due to the fact the Browns shared the stadium with the Cleveland Indians baseball team.  When most teams went to Astroturf, the Browns stuck with what my college roommates called a ‘grass-like’ substance.

My relationship with my grandfather also changed a lot during this time.  He was diagnosed with emphysema in the late 1970s and had to sell his beloved ‘farm’ to pay for the continual medical bills.  He moved to a small trailer and we all pretended that nothing had changed.  Of course it had and when I left home for college he was a shell of himself.  By my sophomore year in 1986, I was coming home about every other weekend to spend as much time as I could before he was gone.  Somewhere in my teenage years we had lost touch and it was now difficult to relate to one another.  I was a headstrong 19 year old with my future ahead of me and knew all the world’s answers.  He was a frail 72 year old who knew better but he only had months to live.  We had become strangers so instead our conversations mostly revolved about the Browns.

In the mid 80s the Browns success started to turn around mostly due to the right arm of Bernie Kosar and a punishing defense led by ‘Top Dawg’ Hanford Dixon.  After the team lost two of their first three games in 1986 I watched games with my grandfather as Bernie tried to bring the Browns back to respectability.  At this point grandpa was in and out of consciousness but as I stood watch the Browns won the next two games by a field goal.  The second game was the most significant as the Browns beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh for the first time since Three Rivers Stadium was built in the early 70s.  It had been a thorn in every Brown fans side since the place was built and and someone made the joke that grandpa could rest in peace now that this had happened.  Two weeks later, I came home and watched the Browns lose a close one with him before returning to school.  Two days later my mom called to tell me he was gone.

There are certain moments in your life that you never forget and they are always human moments.  It’s a little like the old story which asks, “If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear did it really happen?’.  The same things can be said about people.  If something happens and no one is around to notice,does it matter as much?  I’m pretty sure the answer is no.  When my grandpa died, a large part of my childhood died and for the first time since the Browns lost in 1980 I cried unashamed tears of grief.  My life was starting a new chapter as one of the biggest rocks of my childhood was gone.

Amazingly, after my grandfather passed, the Browns went on a tear.  They won 8 of their last 9 games to finish with a record of 12-4 which was the best winning percentage they had since the early 60s (and since sadly).  Cleveland was the top ranked team entering the playoffs and though I’m not a religious person, it felt like some outside force was helping the team that year.  My hopes were dashed a few weeks later in the AFC championship game against John Elway’s Denver Broncos and ‘The Drive’.  The next year Browns lost again to Denver after Ernest Byner & ‘The Fumble’.  That year my similarly Browns obsessed roommates went to the bars looking for anyone to say anything negative after the loss but were saved from embarrassment when bouncers kicked us out of the bar.  Two years later, I had graduated and had a good job but was laying on the couch in a fetal position as the Browns lost to the Broncos again in the championship game.

It’s a bit sad to realized that I now think back to that time as the ‘good ole days’.
Everything started to fall apart in 1990 when the team went 3-13, it’s worst record in history to that point.  Browns fans continued to come to the games but what we didn’t realize was Modell’s finances had taken a turn for the worse.  It was a combination of issues mostly made of 3 things: 1) the lease on a building that was getting increasingly old and difficult to maintain, 2) Modell’s habit of over spending on free agents that rarely panned out, and 3) the football strikes of 1982 and 1987.

Most people forget about the football strikes but when a stadium holds 80,000 and tickets cost $30, each missed date cost him about $2.4 million plus concessions and parking.  There were 7 missed dates in 1982 and 3 played with scabs in 1987.  The strikes took quite a bit of the money that Modell had saved over the last two decades.  His $4 million investment had grown 30 times but that was on paper.  He had nothing to fall back on if times got worse.

Modell’s other issue was his pride.  He liked being a big shot in Cleveland and didn’t want anyone to know he was having issues.  He remained quiet figuring he could increase prices in the stadium.  The first sign of trouble was when the owner of the Indians was complaining about Modell’s penny pinching.  The Indians complaints eventually led to the city agreeing to build a new baseball stadium.  They offered to include Modell in the new stadium deal but Modell wasn’t interested unless he ran it.  The city promised him that once the baseball and basketball facilities were completed they would renovate Municipal Stadium.  What the city didn’t know was Modell was now really in trouble as he didn’t realize just how much he depended on the Indians lease payments.  Instead of slashing costs he continued to spend and raise costs so when he started to make public statements that he wanted a new stadium he was met with hostility from an overtaxed public that had gotten tired of his overcharging of the past decade.

The team continued to flounder with losing records the next three seasons.  Behind the scenes the Indians moved into Jacobs Field and Modell started hemorrhaging money.  He continued to pour money into the football team hoping to change the results on the field but it didn’t pan out.  His health was also starting to fail and he was concerned how he could pass ownership of the team to his sons when he died.  In 1994 he started getting serious about the situation and went public that he’d have no choice but to move the team if the city didn’t get serious about fixing the stadium situation.  The problem is that things like that don’t happen overnight and it caught many people offguard.  He let everyone know that he had lost $21 million in the past two years due to the loss of the Indians as tenants.  The people of Cleveland weren’t happy with this revelation as their taxes were already quite high due to financing the waterfront developments along with the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, Jacobs Field and Gund Arena.  The politicians had come up with several solutions and after several tense months eventually decided on meeting Modell’s demand with a bond worth $175 million that would renovate Municipal Stadium and bring it up to modern standards.  Modell had asked the city for this exact plan many times but in hindsight it was too late if he was going to keep the team.  No one knew was he was almost bankrupt and Modell ominously told everyone before the 1995 season that he was going to wait until after the season to finalize talks.

Despite these issues the Browns had actually started playing well again.  Modell had hired a young assistant from the Giants named Bill Belichick and while his manner was brusque, the improvement on the field was obvious.  In 1994, the Browns went 11-5 and were poised for great things in 1995.  Sports Illustrated even predicted they would make the Super Bowl.  The season started great at 3-1 but the Browns lost the next 3 and it wasn’t long after that when rumors started flying that the Browns might be leaving town.  The $175 million issue was on the ballot on November 7th so many people figured it was posturing to get the bond issue passed.  That made it more stunning when Modell met with the media on November 6th to let them know he was moving the team to Baltimore.  The circus surrounding the team killed the remainder of the season for the Browns and they lost 8 of their last 9 games and cost Bill Belichick his job (gaving Modell an unofficial record of firing two hall of fame coaches).  From when I started watching in 1974 to when they left town in 1995, Modell’s teams went 161-174-1.  I can honestly say in hindsight that I never lost faith with the team and always felt that next year would be the one.  The thing was now there was no next year.

I remember my shock at hearing the news.  I was living in Detroit at the time and it was only a few weeks earlier that I brought my brother and some college friends to see the Lions play Cleveland in the Silverdome.  I don’t think any of us had any idea it would be the last time we’d see the Browns in person for years.  I don’t even recall talking about a potential of the Browns leaving town as it was so preposterous.  A month later they were gone.

I’ve heard many people say that it’s the owners team and it is his right to move the team.  Legally they are correct.  Morally, they couldn’t be more wrong.  The Browns weren’t Modell’s team, they were Cleveland’s team.  I could understand if the fans didn’t support the team but my grandfather’s story is typical of thousands of other fans.  The team isn’t just players, equipment, and colors. It’s also memories and when Modell moved the team he broke a trust between himself and the fans who had willingly given him millions in hard earned money every year.

NFL football has never been the same for me since that day.  I watch the games but most of the emotion is gone.  I still have the memories with my grandfather but somehow it’s just not the same.  Art Modell took that from me and I can’t forgive him for that.  I’m sure most other Cleveland fans feel the same.

I do understand Art Modell looking out for his family as the deal Baltimore gave him was pretty amazing.  They agreed to pay $200 million for a new stadium as well as giving Art Modell $75 million in cash for ‘moving’ expenses.  In other words they paid him $75 million to turn his back on the Cleveland Browns and he took it.  The annoying thing is after the move Modell’s health forced him to let others run the team.  The first year in Baltimore they drafted Jonathon Ogden and Ray Lewis who will both be elected into the football Hall of Fame.  In 2002, they led Baltimore to a Super Bowl which had been so tantalizingly close for the Cleveland teams of the 80s.  I skipped the game as I couldn't watch Modell holding the Lombardi trophy.

In an alternate universe I like to think that Modell went another route in 1995 and instead of cowardly leaving town, he solved his money issues by selling a part of the team to his friend Al Lerner.  The Browns, led by Ray Lewis, Jonathon Ogden, and Bill Belichick won 5 Super Bowls from 1996-2012 and were always in the playoffs.  Art Modell entered the Hall of Fame in 2002 and was mourned by all of football when he passed this week but especially in his beloved Cleveland.

Alas, that never happened.

Modell left town but he had one issue he was trying to ignore.  In 1974 he signed a 25 year lease for the stadium in exchange for $1 per year.  One section of the lease said that the Browns had to play in the stadium or the damage that would be caused would be irreparable and a lease buyout was not an option.  Based on that, the city got an injection in court that would have forced the Browns to play in Cleveland until 1998.  That would have been disastrous as no one would have gone to the games and Modell would have certainly gone bankrupt.  To make sure this didn’t happen the league let the city keep the history, tradition, and colors of the Browns and promised another team within 3 years if the city built a new stadium.  The city accepted which prompted all the NFL cities with aging stadiums to create their own ballot issues for new stadiums as they didn’t want their team to move to Cleveland.  In the end, the deal was certainly a win/win for the NFL.

Modell wasn’t so lucky.  His ineptitude at running an NFL team continued in Baltimore where his debt problems continued despite the $75 million gift from the city of Baltimore.  In 2000, he sold 49% of the team to Steve Bisciotti for $275 million.  In 2004, his continued issues caused the NFL to force him to sell the other 50% for another $325 million.  A little over 8 years after he broke Cleveland’s heart, Modell was no longer an NFL owner but it was small consolation.

In 1999, a new era in Browns history started and after 14 seasons the only word I can think that describes it is disastrous.  Through 2012 the team’s record is 68-140 and it is safe to say they are still a few years away from being legitimate contenders.  Even this can partly be blamed on Modell as his minority partner, Al Lerner, was in poor health and died a few years after purchasing the team.  His son had little interest in the team and sat back as a series of GM’s made one bad move after another.  Despite this Brown’s fans have continued to fill the stadium and watch the games.  I know I haven’t missed many games since they came back.

A month ago, Lerner let everyone know that he was selling the team to a passionate new owner so I am hopeful that things will improve next year.  That’s what Browns fans do and my grandfather would expect nothing less. 

The only thing left is what to do about the promise I made to myself in 1995 about pissing on Modell’s grave.  I like to think I’ve learned to accept the loss of my childhood team but it’s amazing how the passion I used to have about football comes racing back when I think about what he did.  Maybe I will just avoid going to Baltimore so I never have to find out.

Friday, August 24, 2012

Urban Meyer letting Storm Klein back on the team isn't surprising



Urban letting Storm back on the team isn't surprising. Just like Jim Tressel, UM3 doesn't give up on his players

and knows the best way he can influence a player is when they are on the team. Every good coach feels the same way and only boots a player when their actions give them no other choice. None of us know the full details but I'm sure Urban knows everything he needs to handle Storm accordingly. 
I read a good article at Bourbon Meyer (Florida website) that describes Meyer's philosophy when he was there:
Avery Atkins: Not every Gator fan knows who he is, but Atkins was a 4 star recruit at corner and a part of Urban Meyer’s first recruiting class. Atkins started in 3 games in 2005 and was the projected starter in 2006 when everything fell apart for him. He was dismissed from the team and left the University of Florida after charges of domestic battery on the mother of his child.He enrolled at Bethune-Cookman College, where he played three games in 2006 before leaving the team.
In January 2007 he enrolled at Florida again, but dropped out after only a few weeks and returned to Daytona Beach. On July 5, 2007, he was found dead in his running vehicle in his garage.Autopsy later determined the cause of his death as drug overdose. Ecstacy, to be specific. Atkins life was littered with problems stemming from some emotional and financial distress connected to his young child and the child’s mother.
I introduce you to Avery because he is likely a strong reason for the way Urban Meyer handles discipline on his teams. It is important to know that, some of the kids Meyer recruits don’t come from great backgrounds or neighborhoods. Moving to a campus and University culture is a huge adjustment for some of them. Meyer’s record of player behavior while at Florida is, at best, unflattering in its sheer numbers. However, if you look at what the instances and allegations are, you can see that some things are just “things college kids do”, and some are crazy stuff. The kids who did crazy stuff were typically suspended or removed from the team.
In a moment of truth, Urban might tell you that he wished he could have done more for Avery. He did all that he could by allowing him to come back and enroll at Florida and get a second chance at it, but Avery was too far gone.
Meyer’s philosophy is that, while not pretty all the time, some of these guys are better off on campus and under the supervision of himself, coaches, and advisors at the University with all of it’s resources, than they would be left to their own devices at home, where they may be nothing productive for them. Ever since Avery died, Coach Meyer has had a significantly more difficult time removing a guy from the program. Unless of course, it’s crazy, crazy stuff (like firing AK-47’s on Univ. Ave or stealing your teammate’s deceased girlfriend’s credit card and running it up)

Friday, August 3, 2012

Leaving the NCAA. Is it possible?

Another of my cleaning out my drafts column.  Never completely finished but the point was that there are probably 40-50 teams that would make sense to join but conference affiliation makes it impossible.  Unless the college players form a union and force schools to separate football as a separate entity I don't see it happening.
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Any time a big time school is under investigation by the NCAA penalties decry the inequity of it all and suddenly you see statements by fans that say their team should leave the NCAA.  Some of this is just frustration that their team is about to be hit with penalties but it's also because the whole system is set up on the backs of 20 year old men so bad decisions on their part are to be expected.  The NFL doesn't have to worry about illegal payments, only that their players stay out of jail.

Most major college make tens of millions of dollars on the backs of their student athletes.  Texas, Alabama, Florida, and Ohio State all make between $50-80mm from their football programs will spending about $20-30mm to support them. The profit for each of these universities is used to support the other programs at the school.  The problem is that more and more people are coming after this money and while the total revenue for all schools continue to escalate that isn't going to continue forever.  With costs continuing to rise it is only a matter of time before the big schools do something to protect this income.

Could the big schools leave the NCAA?  

The first question is how they leave.  Many suggest that it should be made up of the conferences with automatic qualifition in the BCS while others feel a more selective process should be used.  I'm a big proponent of the second method but lets look at both:

BCS Conferences (B1G, Pac12, Big12, SEC, BE, ACC)
There are currently 66 schools in the BCS system with the SEC/B1G the strongest and the B12/BE the weakest.  68 schools is too many especially since so many schools have differing level of support.  Here's the attendance numbers for each conference for the 42 schools with more than 50,000 in attendance (with teams over 65,000 in red):

Big Ten (8/7)
1. Michigan 111,825
2. Ohio St. 105,278
3. Penn St. 104,234
11. Nebraska 85,664
16. Wisconsin 79,862
19. Michigan St. 73,556
21. Iowa 70,585
38. Illinois 54,188

SEC (11/9)
4. Alabama 101,821
6. Tennessee 99,781
7. Georgia 92,746
8. LSU 92,718
9. Florida 90,511
10. Auburn 86,087
18. South Carolina 76,668
22. Arkansas 68,932
25. Kentucky 66,070
35. Mississippi 55,898
37. Mississippi St. 54,999

Big 12 (6/3)
5. Texas 100,654
12. Oklahoma 84,738
13. Texas A&M 82,477
26. Missouri 61,540
32. Texas Tech 57,108
41. Oklahoma St. 50,812

Pac 12 (6/2)
15. Southern California 79,907
23. Washington 66,264
28. UCLA 60,376
29. Oregon 59,398
31. California 57,873
36. Arizona 55,408

ACC (6/3)
17. Clemson 77,469
20. Florida St. 71,270
24. Virginia Tech 66,233
30. North Carolina 58,250
33. North Carolina St. 56,877
39. Miami (FL) 52,575

Big East (3)
34. West Virginia 56,325
40. Pittsburgh 52,165
42. Louisville 50,648

Independant (2/1)
14. Notre Dame 80,795
27. BYU 61,381

As you can see  most conferences have a few dominant players with many others schools that don't have close to the same resources.  This system is a bit symbiotic as the top schools get wins and the bottom schools get money.  This has worked well in the past but the question is will it work if they break ties with the NCAA and the answer is mixed.  It can for the big conferences but not for the smaller conferences.  

That's why I think the answer is a combination of the B1G/SEC/B12/Pac12 along .  You could make an argument that the B12/Pac12 shouldn't be included but both serve a geographic area with huge college football traditions.  To these 4 conferences I'd add Notre Dame/BYU/Florida State/Miami/Virginia Tech.  

There are many obstacles in the way but the biggest is political and I think it is impossible to exclude the ACC if you include schools like Indiana and Vanderbilt.