Penn State Possibilities

Usually I try to have a fact based article but this is going to be from my gut.  No doubt it will be opinionated and slanted towards the Buckeyes as I am a Buckeye fan... just getting that out of the way.

One thing that bugs me about the split of Ohio State and Michigan is why is it being done.  It isn't neccessary and it is amazing how many people who are on board who you'd think wouldn't be on board.  The amazing thing is it seems to have been known by most of the higher ups in the Big Ten for a long time.  Look at Jim Tressel's comments at the Big Ten meetings if you don't believe me.  Or Rich Rodriguez.  Both men were asked the question and neither gave very satisfying answers but they make a lot more sense a month later.  You'd think that both coaches would have spoken out against it as the tradition goes back a long long time.  RichRod hasn't been involved with the program for very long so I can believe that perhaps he doesn't care but he could get some cheap fan support if he stood up.  That isn't happening.  It got me to wonder why the entire league is being so political right now.  What are they so afraid of that has gotten them all in lock step?  My theory is two simple words:

Penn State.

OSU Michigan Split Acceptance (Not really)

One thing I keep seeing all these people that come up with proposed divisional split now that it seems likely that Michigan and Ohio State look likely to be split up.  While I still think that ranks up there with prohibition, the Edsel, the Nazi party, and new Coke in terms of all time bad ideas, I figure I should give a little thought to how I think it should be structured.  If there isn't a split I'm in favor of a purely geographic split .. if they feel they need to split up the "Big 3" then move Penn State west and Illinois east.

The thing is they seem determined to split Michigan and Ohio State and if that is the case then what is the best way to split the league?

Why the Big Ten can't change to a 9 game schedule

It's basic math (for comparisons sake I'm ignoring the fact we will have an additional team as it is easier to compare current apples and apples).

The average gate for the "Little 8" in 2009 was about $2 million.  It's at least double that for the "Big 3".  The non conference game that will be going away will most 99.9% be a home game vs a MAC type team.  A normal Big Ten team pays about an average of around $0.6 million to get these teams to show up.  So by doing some quick math, the average Big Ten Team makes about $2 million per game ((2-0.6)x8) + ((4-0.6)x3) / 11).  That means by going to a 9 game conference schedule they lose 5.5 games or approximately $11 million ($2 x 5.5).  These numbers do not include other game day revenue like concessions or parking or any game day costs but feel pretty confident in claiming that non-gate revenue exceeds the non-gate cost.  In other words, $11 million is a very conservative number.

Compare that with the the benefit ... the league now has more inventory of conference games.  Currently they have 8 conference games and 4 out of conference.  That gives them a total inventory of 88 games (8*5.5) + (4*11).  A 9 game league schedule reduces that to 82.5 games.  Unless the Big Ten is able to charge Rotel a lot more from their ads the money from the Big Ten Network is pretty much fixed.  Any additional money will need to come from ABC/ESPN as will have a better matchup for their viewers.  The Big Ten currently makes $100 million annually from ESPN for 41 football games and 60 basketball games.  Recently I saw that the incremental revenue the league could get by splitting Ohio State and Michigan would net them at best about $2 million per year.  Are we supposed to believe that they can get an incremental $11 million from ESPN by taking 11 non-conference games and changing them to 5.5 conference games?

Another way to look at it is to take 2 average Big Ten teams and ask yourself this question - Is one Purdue vs Michigan State game more bankable than 2 games featuring Purdue vs Ball State and Michigan State vs Central Michigan?  Is it worth another $2 million?  The league would need another $2 million just to break even and I don't think it is possible.

I can make a good argument that a 9 game schedule is good for the league and it's fans.  If you don't believe me then go look at the Big Ten slate the last weekend in September and tell me you are excited to watch any of those games.  The thing is the league recently has made it very clear that money > tradition.  If that is true then they can't possibly move to a 9 game schedule as it goes against key motivation.  To do otherwise would be very hypocritical.

I just can't stop thinking about the possible changes to THE GAME

It gets me all sentimental and puts me in a bad mood.  Today I read an article by Dan Wetzel on Yahoo.

Part of me wishes I didn't read things like that because it makes me so angry that they could screw up something as timeless as THE GAME.

A championship game doesn't need to change a thing.  The Ohio State football season has always been split into 4 parts:

Out of conference
In conference
Michigan
Post Season

What college game had the most future NFL players?

That simple question was raised on the O-Zone forum and I decided to take a crack at answering it.  First a few caveats.  The first thing you need to do is to define what is a NFL player.  Is it someone that plays in a game or is merely being on the roster good enough?  What if they are put on a practice squad -- does that count?  What about players that are invited to tryout - should they count?  The best answer would probably be any player that gets into a game would be considered an NFL player.  The problem is I don't know anywhere that I can find that data along with the player's college and years they attended school.  I do have easy access to the NFL draft information so I decided to define an NFL player as anyone that is drafted by the NFL.

Ohio State - Michigan apocalypse

I've posted my thoughts on how the league should structure a few times and most recently a few weeks ago.  Since then there have been a few comments made from the athletic directors of both schools since that time. Here were the comments from the local papers (link attached) and I'm going pretty much to post them in full as they speak for themselves:

Below the break....

Will politics kill the BCS?

I'm going to warn you first ... this may be a long post and it may take a while to get back to the title premise.  First I need to explain a few things about how the BCS works.

As I've said in previous posts the BCS is a bit complicated and very political.  Most of this is due to the fact that the non-BCS conferences see the money generated and they want more.  The BCS paid out $142.5 million last year and it was split as follows:

22.2 Big Ten (One automatic bid + one invite (4.5))
22.2 SEC (One automatic bid + one invite(4.5))
17.7 Pac 10 (One automatic bid)
17.7 Big 12 (One automatic bid)
17.7 Big East (One automatic bid)
17.7 ACC (One automatic bid)
24.0 Non-BCS (Annual base payout (9.75) + one invite (9.75) + 2nd invite (4.5))
  1.3 Notre Dame (Annual base payout)
  0.2 Army/Navy (Annual base payout)

  1.8 FCS Conferences (Annual base payout)
-----
142.5 Total Paid out

More after the break....

Buckskin masochist edition - Most helpless games ever

In Buckeye history there have been many great victories but more often than not we over match our opposition with talent.  I don't think about it much but it has got to be a helpless feeling to come to a game and  suddenly realize that you have no shot to win.  This is a rare occurance at Ohio State so I'm going to list the top 10 most helpless games since 1970.  An emphasis will be on teams we thought were actually good going into the contest and for that reason I'm ignoring John Cooper's first 2 teams (1988 and 1989) and Jim Tressel's first team (2001).  Here's my list with a bit of commentary.  Enjoy the misery after the break!

The Economics of Big Ten Gate Receipts

I saw a post the other day complaining about revenue sharing of gate receipts in the Big Ten.  It was honestly something I never thought about much in the past.  Before I read this article I didn't even know how the Big Ten split gates receipts.  I did know that for non-conference games it is a bidding war of sorts ranging from $500-$800k per game for the top schools.  That's why schools love to play the Buckeyes and why the Ohio Legislature has "encouraged" the Buckeyes to play Ohio universities.

As has been commented on in the past, the Big Ten is extremely equitible when it comes to their member institutions.  At some point they had to figure out how to split gate receipts.  This is a hard thing to do as some schools are more popular than others.  How much should a school get for simply showing up if 90% of the fans in the stadium are rooting for the home team?  In many ways it's a great deal if your school doesn't have a great fan base.  Your home games net you about $300k but you play Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State at their stadiums and are rolling in the money.  It would be great that season but imagine the drop in revenue the next season when you have them at home.

More after the break....

Mark it down - OSU and Michigan in the same divisions and THE GAME will be the last regular season game of the year.

Mark it down - OSU and Michigan in the same divisions and THE GAME will be the last regular season game of the year.


Why does it seem like everyone thinks it's foregone conclusion that THE GAME is going to move?

Unless I've missed a few press releases all we have are non committal responses by Jim Tressel and RichRod.  Jim Delaney has only said essentially that some things are going to change but that tradition is important.  The AD's from both schools have said essentially the same thing.  I've seen many posts by people worried that no one cares about tradition and that THE GAME is going to move to October.  I seriously doubt it happens and here's why. (after the break).