A crazy thought on Braxton Miller

Braxton Miller is the main reason Ohio State is 9-0 right now mostly by using his legs.  Here are his stats on the year:

Rushing 166-1093 yds, 12 TDS, 6.6 ypc
Passing 112-198, 12 TDs 6 Int’s, 135.3 rating

He’s being considered for the Heisman and most likely will be in attendence but lose out to someone on a team eligible to play in a bowl.

After watching last night’s game I began to wonder if there were times where we were using him incorrectly and getting the most from this offense.  A case in point is almost the entirety of the first half.  Braxton made continual bad reads on the option and it seemed like he determined before the play what he was going to do. This was made worse by his continued struggles in the passing game.  He missed open receivers, didn’t go through his progressions and stayed in the pocket until it was too late to escape the pass rush. 

These issues are all common for a true sophomore quarterback and it is scary to think how good he could be by his senior year.  This season however we have the following situation:

Running: One of the top 5 in the country
Passing: Needs at least another year plus film study
Decision Making: Making the wrong call around half the time because the game is still moving too fast
Pocket Presence: Poor
Receiving: Unknown

Looking at that you might think I’m not a fan of Braxton and I want to reiterate that this is a situation where he’s just young.  It does make me wonder if there is another option.  One that utilzes Braxton’s main talent of running the ball and hides his deficiencies in passing and decision making.

The inclusion of receiving on the list above gives away my ‘crazy solution’.  Move him into Corey Brown’s spot and Kenny Guiton to quarterback.

Not on every play as it would be crazy but I’d love to see this for a few series/plays a game.  Corey Brown has the surest hands on the team and we don’t want to lose him.  Saying that, I’d love to see how the offense works with Kenny making the decisions/passes with Braxton in the slot.  Every play he’d go in motion behind the line with Devin Smith releasing downfield.  Based on keys Guiton could 1)hand off to Braxton if they bunch up the middle, 2) hand off to Hyde if the middle is open, or 3) pass it to Devin Smith or a releasing tight end if there’s a favorable matchup.  There are many variation off of the play and I know it sounds crazy but it wouldn’t shock me to see something like this at Michigan.

Ohio State vs. the top 25

I was looking at the top 25 and thinking there are a lot of teams behind the Buckeyes that are better due to the current state of our defense.  This team has obvious issues vs the spread offense due to their lack of playmakers at linebacker and safety so I thought it might be fun to predict how the team would do against the rest of the top 25.

L  Alabama Crimson Tide – We’d do better than Michigan but not by much
L  Oregon Ducks – The defense would struggle to stop them
-   Florida Gators – I think we could hang with them as they played the same D last year and our O is better
W Kansas St. Wildcats – Snyder is a miracle worker but we win this one
L  Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Their D could stop us which would let them score enough to win
L  LSU Tigers – This is mainly on reputation as I’m not convinced yet that this team is for real
L  South Carolina Gamecocks – See LSU
W Oregon St. Beavers  - I don’t see it happening
L   Oklahoma Sooners They have the offensive firepower to beat us
-    Ohio St. Buckeyes – This would be a tie but a high scoring tie
-    Florida St. Seminoles – It depends on which Seminole team shows up.
L   USC Trojans This is a talented team and USC always shows up for the big games
L   Georgia Bulldogs – This is a talented team that seems to choke.  Cooperesque.
W  Mississippi St. Bulldogs -  I refuse to believe the 6th best team in the SEC is better than the Buckeyes
W  Louisville Cardinals – Big East teams are always overrated due to their schedule
-    Clemson Tigers – Boyd might win this game
-    West Virginia Mountaineers – Whoever scores last gets the Heisman
W    Texas Tech Red Raiders – Based mainly on their win vs West Virginia.  They won’t finish this high.
W    Rutgers Scarlet Knights - See Louisville
W    Texas A&M Aggies   - This is a decent team but not enough on offense to beat the Buckeyes
W    Cincinnati Bearcats  - See Louisville
W    Stanford Cardinal -
W    Ohio Bobcats – They might pull an upset but I doubt it
W    TCU Horned Frogs – They just lost their best player on offense.
-     Michigan Wolverines – This is always a tough game and Denard vs this Defense is scary.

I didn’t put a ton of thought into it and if I cared enough I would have looked at the stats for each team and offensive philosophies.  My guess is our record would be 11-8-6 vs the top 25.  Before the season I would have taken a team that good in a second. I just didn’t think the thing holding us back would be our defense.

We don’t deserve to go any higher until the defense puts back to back decent performances together.  Which I can’t imagine is going to happen based on what I’ve seen so far this season.

Buckeye defensive woes continue

Last night the Buckeyes defensive issues continued in a 52-49 win over Indiana.  The high score is a bit amazing and even more so when you consider the score was 10-14 with 5 minutes left in the first half.  That means the score was 42-35 in a little more than a half.  Good offense but really bad defense.

The game wasn't as close as the final score as the defense has some huge mental breakdowns late in the game.  It is troubling though that the defense continues to give up big plays so I decided to watch the game in slow motion to see what is causing it.

1st quarter - 2 minutes left - OSU 10-Indiana 0 - Indiana on their 41 yard line (59 yd run)

Indiana lined up in the shotgun with one man in the backfield, a tight end to the short side and 3 receivers split to the wide side.   The play was a simple handoff left designed to go the short side between Left Guard and Tackle.  The Buckeye defense line was Simon on the Right side (from the Indiana point of view), Hale at right tackle, Goebells at left tackle and Spence at left end.  The line double teamed Hale and did straight up blocking on the rest of the left side.  The Indiana left tackle pushed Goebells back and the tight end destroyed Spence.  As Ohio State didn't put anyone over the Indiana right guard, the line call pulled the guard into the designed hole.

The odd thing is as the right side was overloaded with 3 receivers, one safety and the nickel back shifted to line up over them.  In addition, the other safety (Bryant) lined up as if he was covering the deep right half on the right side as well.  The way the safeties lined up, the left corner (Roby) seemed to have responsibility for the left half of the field but he was lined up as if he was covering the short zone and expecting help from deep middle.

When the running back hit the hole, Goebbels was blocked and Spence was blocked.  Shazier filled the hole but didn't see the guard coming who kicked him out and the running back ran inside him.  , Roby attempted to get there but the play was too far inside for him to close.  It fell to Bryant who was 15 yards off the ball and beyond the right hash and he barely made it into the television screen as the running back raced for a score.

 I think the blame for the big play falls on Bryant who seems like he was out of position and took a bad read.  Certainly credit has to goto the Indiana offense who executed the play well for a touchdown.

1st Quarter - 30 seconds left - OSU 10 - Indiana 7 - Ohio State punt (blocked)

Camren Williams misread the play and helped Boren double team to his right while the guy to his left ran in unblocked.  Indiana also lined up one more person wide to the right than we had blockers and he would have had a good shot at making a block even if Williams man didn't get there first.  That may have been Williams issue.  It seems he assumed that everyone would shift over a man which is why he blocked the way he did.

 Part of the issue is the Buckeye are sending 5 men sprinting downfield to cover the punt (2 wide on each side and the long snapper) and when the other side only initially drops 4 for the return like Indiana did on this play you have 5 on 7 situation.

I'd say some of this is scheme and but the block probably wouldn't happen without Williams' misread.

2nd Quarter - 14:30 - OSU 10 - Indiana 7 - Indiana on OSU's 10 yard line (10 yard run)

Simple run to the right.  Boren blitzed from the left linebacker spot and Shazier moved into his position.  The Indiana tackle on that side did a nice job reading the play and after sealing Boren inside moved downfield to take both Bryant and Barnett out of the play.  Shazier took a bad angle and the running back run into the end zone untouched.

This seems to be on Shazier, Bryant and Barnett as they had 3 on 1 blocker and couldn't make a tackle. 

 3rd Quarter - 14:30 - OSU 24 - Indiana 14 - Indiana on their 35 yard line (40 yard pass)

This was a simple situation where Indiana's best receiver was matched up against Doran Grant, the backup cornerback and he couldn't make a play.  Howard got banged up in the first half and they put Grant in to start the 2nd but after this and a bad pass interference on the next play Howard came back in.  Indiana got 3 points out of this drive almost entirely because of Grant's mistakes.  That's not a good sign for next year when both starting cornerbacks will likely be gone.

3rd Quarter - 9:30 - OSU 31 - Indiana 17 - OSU on the Indiana 4 (Interception)

I'm including this because it was so frustrating based on what happened right after this.  A score and Indiana starts to quit.  The bad decision to throw the ball late off his back foot kept them in the game.

 3rd Quarter - 8:50 - OSU 31 - Indiana 17 - Indiana on their 26 (74 yard pass)

Storm Klein took his drop a bit too deep covering the inside receiver and let the middle receiver (Shane Wynn from Glenville who'd look great in Urban's offense) cut over the middle for an easy 6 yard curl.  The deep help on the other side of the field (Bryant) got caught up with the receiver running a hook pattern.  Wynn cut behind this block taking both Bryant and Klein out of the play.  At this point it was a sprint to the end zone.

Shazier might have had a chance to make a play but Roby was blitzing from the right side and Shazier had responsibility for short coverage on that side.  The blitz meant Bryant had play up closer as well.  If Klein were a bit fast or Shazier reacted quicker this would might have been stopped but the real key was the play call was perfect for the defense Ohio State ran. 

4th Quarter - 1:40 - OSU 52 - Indiana 41 - Indiana on the OSU 25 (25 yard pass)

After a really bad onside kick call by the refs, Indiana scored a few plays later.  They got a good rush with 4 defensive linemen and forced a shovel pass.    Zach Boren missed the tackle, Bryant took a bad angle, and Roby got caught on the wrong side of the receiver he was guarding who pushed him out of the play.

As I re-watched this there weren't as many big plays as I remembered.  That's actually bad because it means that Indiana was scheming us which would have taken way too long to review.  Kevin Wilson really had done a nice job with the talent at Indiana and I wonder if are going to make a push for the top half of the league in the future.

The players I am really liking on offense right now is Braxton, Corey (don't call me Philly) Brown,  Carlos Hyde, and Rod Smith.  I'm sure many would include Devin Smith as well but he's dropping too many easy passes right now.  The offensive line has been a nice surprise all season too.

Defensively it is hard to say.  Simon, Big Hank, and Roby all seem to be exceptional but without reviewing each play it is hard to say.  The bad thing is poor linebacker and safety play overshadows everything.  One bright spot is Zach Boren led the team in tackles at middle linebacker despite not playing the position since high school.  As he gets comfortable he might be a real nice surprise.

It should be interesting to hear Urban Meyer's comments this week after he looks at the film.

The delusion continues in Happy Valley

One of my shameful secrets this past year is how much time I've spent reading threads over at Blue and White Illustrated.  That's a Penn State Rivals.com website that is one of the teams most popular forums so it gives a good idea of their fan's opinions.

This past week there was a thread on BWI titled "Completely absurd that people are claiming 'of a sexual nature' is equivalent to MM having conveyed that he just WITNESSED criminal sexual assault".  I thought one person summed the whole thing up nicely essentially stating that "Previous accusation + naked + shower + 60 year old man + 12 year old boy = Police".

The responses are really sad as the fans just can't let it go and want to protect Coach Paterno.  Here are some of them:

• Paterno DID REPORT IT BY THE BOOK (i.e., PSU HR Manual) you blithering, obfuscating a-hole! Your full of crap that it isn't "relevant" -- MM went to Paterno to make an HR Report (Dr. Dranov's testimony confirms this quite clearly). He did not go to Paterno and allege seeing CRIMINAL sexual assault (i.e., it is impossible to allege WITNESSING criminal sexual assault without witnessing a sex act of any kind!). The people who screwed up "the investigation" were above Paterno and they absolutely had all THE FACTS they needed to make the correct decisions but still failed THEIR OBLIGATIONS! 

• The text comes from a transcript of testimony that was transcribed unprofessionally. Simply read the two sentences of Joe's statement regarding this matter. Where he seems to contradict himself. Then have the sense to understand the first statement was a statement of incredulity or you could say a interrogatory in the form of a statement. Joe did this all the time... repeating what he was asked...then giving his response. The transcriber should have typed....something to the effect...."It was of a sexual nature(?)" Then Joe's supposedly contradictory response.... not: "It was of a sexual nature(.)" then Joe's response. It's not that damn complex. 

• It is absurd for people to keep saying that "of a sexual nature" amounts to a de facto description of a CRIMINAL sexual assault (i.e., no internal investigation of the matter required????). Simply absurd.

• ["It seems to me that the only fair criticisms of Joe would be if he discouraged the administration from reporting the incident to DPW."] ---- Joe never changed anyone's mind. All Freeh would have had to have done was read Curley's 26 pages of Grand Jury testimony and put it together with the February 12th meeting that was documented between Curley and Schultz. Curley was asked over and over and over again in the Grand Jury as to how he came about making his decision, what it was based on, and who influenced him. Joe had nothing to do with it. 

• Anybody saying that Joe was part of some conspiracy and was part and parcel to this whole thing is wrong. No sense trying to convince them otherwise more than trying to convince somebody the world is not flat. The only thing anybody can say about Joe is that being who he was and what he stood for and his ultimately high moral character, we wish he would have followed up a little harder with C/S/S on what the end outcome was.

There are threads like this that happen at least once a week.  Penn State fans are more than willing to through the administrators under the bus but still protect Joe.  They blame the board and the governor more about the situation than the coach who was the face of the school for almost half a century and was the first person told of the incident.

If I look at this from an apologist angle I can understand how this happened.  All you have to do is look at the amount of national publicity Pizza-Gate got this week in Columbus to see why Penn State acted as it did.  Any top program is hesitant to release any information they aren't 100% sure because even small items becomes national news overnight.  As a result, a culture of protection that has been built up over decades at many programs that includes players, coaches, administrators, alumni, fans and local media.  If you view the scandal in that light it is easy to see what happened.  In 1998, Sandusky was accused of molesting a child but the DA investigated and the case was dropped.  Three years later Mike McQuery sees something that he thinks is of a sexual nature between Sandusky and a young boy.

When you face a harassment claim two things always muddy the issue, namely perception and reputation.  The facts are rarely as clear cut as the initial discussion and most times can be resolved behind closed doors with a quick investigation and quick disciplinary action.  One of the keys is most times it is kept entirely quiet.  Imagine if every time a Fortune 500 company had a claim like this it was put in the Wall Street Journal.  The reputation and stock price of that company would take a hit.  The managers and the employee involved would be forever tainted and never able to work again even if the process proved that it was all a misunderstanding.  That's why there is always a reluctance to speak in publicity situations.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying I agree with Penn State's actions I'm just saying that I understand how it could happen.  They were faced with a situation where a man who had worked with children for over 20 years and had already been investigated once and nothing was found and again faced with an accusation.  It is normal not to want deal with something like this because if nothing is found the accused, the victim, the whistleblower, the school, and the reputation of all involved is harmed forever and nothing you do can change it.

I want to restate that I know that Penn State made egregious mistakes.  In any organization the first thing you do is get Human Resources/Legal involved.  If it is criminal you get the police involved.  If it is less than that you investigate and document your findings.  Penn State did none of this because they wanted to protect the school and the reputation of a man that worked there from 30 years.  In hindsight their actions are certainly wrong and in some cases, criminal.

The worst part of all this is Bill O'Brien has done a fantastic job of keeping his team focused as they are now 4-2 and undefeated in the Big Ten.  It's the type of comeback story that Americans love but Penn State fan's focus on the past is making it impossible for anyone to root for their team.

I am well aware to paint all fans with a broad brush using posts from a website is unfair.  If this happened at Ohio State I know the lunatic fringe on the O-Zone website would be saying similar things.  For anyone who doubts that all you need to do is go back a year to the Jim Tressel scandal and see the posts regarding a simple case of him hiding/lying for his players when they broke NCAA rules.  It took almost six months before the majority of posters accepted the truth but even today there is the occasional thread that claims that "Tressel took the hit for the university" or my personal favorite "Tressel is still working with the FBI in a sting operation and saying more would hurt an ongoing investigation."

This level of delusion happens at all big programs and it is what causes some fans to go too far and do things like poison your opponents trees.  It's just sad to see what is happening in Happy Valley and I've got to force myself to stop reading the BWI website as it is not fun to watch them continue to mire in their delusion.

Ohio State moving to an all BCS scheduling policy

When Ohio State announced they were scheduling TCU they added a statement that,

“As we move forward, from 2018 and out, our goal is BCS only. We are looking at top ranked teams, 1-50 teams.”

That is good news for fans going to the games as one of the reason’s I stopped buying season tickets about ten years ago is that the bad games far outweighed the good games.  When I started buying tickets in 1990 the face value was $18.  Back then the season was 11 games so you could expect about 6 home games a year.  4 of those were Big Ten games which usually meant we had at least one game to look towards and one of the ‘preseason’ home games.  I remember writing the first check for season tickets as they cost me $128 for a 6 game 1992 season.

Ironically that was the first season that Ohio State ever played a team from the MAC.  It had been since the 1930s that Ohio State had scheduled decidedly inferior opposition (Drake in 1935 is probably the best example).  Every season you could count on 4 Big Ten games and 1-2 non-conference games against teams with a state name (and no direction preceding it).

Fast forward to the mid 2000s and tickets had jumped to over $60 and the last check I wrote was for 8 games and with special charges and processing fees it was over $500.  Those were cheap compared to what my company paid.  Buckeye club tickets were cost $2,000 to join and then you had the opportunity to buy 2 season tickets at $500 each.  When you did the math it was ridiculous and I started watching the games at home.  I could easily afford the tickets but that wasn’t the issue.  In 1995 I wanted to see 1 game – Texas.  I spent $400 on 2 tickets and took my dad to see the game and still saved money.  The rest I watched from the comfort of my home.

Many people are coming to the same realization.  Ohio Stadium had trouble selling out its preseason tickets this year for the first time since the woeful teams of the late 80s.  Even then people didn’t show up to the games because the teams were so bad.  Ohio State isn’t the only team to do this and in fact, the last few weeks have only had a couple of top twenty teams facing one another.  It seems it seems to me that some ADs (Gene Smith in particular) have decided it is in their best interest to improve the competition to increase the demand for tickets.

The other thing that is happening is that television has been paying a ton of money for broadcasting rights but games like Ohio State – UAB isn’t turning on dials.  Ohio State isn’t alone as last weekend, the Buckeye game with Michigan State game was the premier game of the weekend and was the only real place possible for Gameday to travel. With the influx of many Division 1AA (FCS) teams into Division 1A the quality is getting more and more diluted. 

The process started in the early 80s when teams like Oklahoma sued the NCAA to be able to determine their own television rights.  Before then there was usually only 2-3 games on each Saturday and now every year has increased the number of games and spread to different nights.  While once it was in teams best interest to play the best to get on television that flipped in the 80s and ended when the BCS started.  Now it seems to be going the other way which is a good thing.

The offset of this is two fold. 

First is the likelihood that Ohio State will have more losses but my suspicion is it won’t matter as all they will need to do is win the Big Ten to get into the 4 team championship.

The other issue is that the days of 4 preseason home games is going away and we’d only have 2.  This will reduce season ticket prices as the days of 8 home games like this year would be over.  That would reduce income as we’d only get $1 million from most away teams and make about $5 million from home dates.  That means a loss of $8 million per year but if it safeguards to the milliions of Buckeye club and season ticket prices then it would be worth it.  You can expect that there will also be ticket price increases so that face is closer to $100 if quality improves.

One last thing this made me think about is this might be a hint that the B1G is headed for a 9 game conference schedule by 2018.  The league wants more marketable games and OSU-UAB doesn’t fit that bill.  Either way it sounds good for Ohio State fans as we will be getting better games to watch in the near future.