Texas and TCU hold the cards in expansion

A few weeks ago I wrote that Texas A&M's move to the SEC was the death knell to the Big East.  A few days after that I wrote on the Ozone this statement,

The bottom line for the Big 12 is how badly does Texas want to keep the Longhorn Network.  There is no way the Pac 12 is going to accept them and keep that network in tact.  The funny thing is Oklahoma has made no secret of the fact that they want to go to the Pac 12 regardless of Texas decision.  I guess no one told them that while the Pac 12 would love to have Oklahoma's tradition, the only way they would extend an invite to them is if Texas joins as well.  The Big 12 will have a BCS invite as long as Texas is in the league and they from all reports they want to keep it.  The league's survival depends entirely on Texas' decision on the Longhorn network.

 Many people thought this statement about Oklahoma was ludicrous as they are a top 10 program in terms of wins and tradition.  The Pac 12 no doubt would like that but they are more concerned with academics and market share.  The first problem for them is that they cannot move anywhere without taking Oklahoma State as well which dilutes profitability. Also, Oklahoma academics are third tier and their sister school Oklahoma State is even worse.  Finally, Oklahoma has a lot of fans but they are centered in a low market share with many graduates in Texas.  There aren't enough of them to create a regional network like the Pac 12 network plans to do in their current markets.  That wouldn't be the case if Texas joined.

Yesterday a story broke from Oklahoma that they'd stay in the Big 12 if Texas changed the revenue sharing for the Longhorn network and fired their commissioner Dan Beebe who has long been looked at as a Texas lacky.  That was an interesting development considering they had publicly stated for over a month that they were leaving if Texas A&M left.  I should have realized there was more to the story but I wasn't surprised when late last night the Pac 12 announced they weren't expanding.

The funny thing from the announcement is it initially said that the Pac 12 decided not to expand but after the reporters started talking to their inside sources it fell apart mostly because they couldn't get Texas' assurance about the Longhorn Network.  That doesn't mean the Pac 12 isn't going to expand, it just means that both Oklahoma and the Pac 12 are saying that if they are in either league there will be revenue sharing and they need to change their thinking.  It appears they've had to resort to a public statements to make the trustees at Texas see the light.

That doesn't mean they will do it.  Oklahoma has very little bargaining power as Texas knows that they are going anywhere without them.  The Oklahoma State anchor is their achilles heel as no one will take both.  That puts the decision where it has always been -- in Texas.

At this point I'd be shocked if Texas went to the Pac12.  There's just too many reasons not to go, least of all is geographically and the fact that most of the Pac 12 games are shown when Texans have moved on with their day.  I'm sure there aren't many fans that would have enjoyed the 1800 mile road trip to Seattle to watch a conference game (And I thought my dad's 600 mile trip to see Iowa was crazy).

In any event the question in my mind is where does the Big 12 go from here.  My guess is Texas will give the league a few concessions on the Longhorn network and announce a new commissioner but they have a few other obstacles.  Texas A&M is leaving and as I've said before, Missouri is the SEC's best option for the 14th team.  There are rumors out there that the SEC has already given them an invite and Missouri is waiting to see how things play out in the Big 12 before responding.  Don't believe that for a second.  What Missouri is really doing is waiting to see if the league disbands so they won't have to pay the exit fee.  That is probably what is happening with Texas A&M as well.  When it becomes apparent that the Big 12 will survive I think both schools will go despite the exit fee.

That will then mean the Big 12 is sitting at 8 schools of which only Texas has a realistic option to leave.  The question is what happens next and the obvious answer is they will grab at least 2 schools.  As I've said before I think the best choices are TCU and BYU though SMU/Houston/NTexas/Tulane/Rice are possibilities.  Some might think that some of these schools are too small to join the Big 12 but they are forgetting that the fact that the league doesn't share revenues equally so size doesn't matter as it won't impact any other schools revenue.

The other league in turmoil is the Big East and they are hurting from the recent defections of Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC.  The ACC might not be done as they are waiting to see if the SEC takes one of their schools (Florida State/Georgia Tech/Clemson/Va Tech) before making their next move.  If the SEC doesn't take anyone they may stay at 14 as it is much more manageable then 16 though they could take Rutgers/UConn to try to pin down the Northeast market.

That means the Big East has 6 schools in the league with TCU joining as the 7th next year.  That puts TCU in a pivotal spot.  The Big East is talking about expanding but their choices of  Army/ Navy/ Villanova/ Temple/ Central Florida/ Marshall aren't exactly powerhouses so I'd be shocked if they kept their automtic BCS qualifier status.  All it would take is that Texas give TCU assurances that they are committed to the Big 12 there is no doubt in my mind that they will join.  Their defection would pretty much end the Big East as a BCS league and bring them to the equivalent of Conference USA.

How Texas A&M's move dooms the Big East

If you've read any of my past columns you'd know I'm an unabashed Big East hater.  Part of it is due to my allegience to Ohio State and Miami University which means I have an inbred hatred for all things related to the University of Cincinnati.  The other part is the fact that the Big East has one of the coveted automatic BCS slots that they earned through sheer politics and has nothing to do with football prowess.  Be that as it may, I think the recent announcement by Texas A&M that they are moving to the SEC is a death blow to the Big East.


I know it sounds crazy.  Most thing the Big 12 is the conference that is in real trouble but as long as Texas wants to be a part of it they will keep their BCS designation which will attract other teams.  Even if the worst happens and somehow Oklahoma decides leaves Oklahoma State (won't happen), Texas knows it has a good thing in the Big 12.  Texas really doesn't need to move to continue as the biggest moneymaker in college sports and they know it. Even if the SEC really went off the deep end and went to 16 with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Missouri there are a bunch of teams that would jump at the chance to join a league with an automatic bid.

Who are these teams?  The first 4 are SMU, Houston, TCU and BYU.  Plug these schools into a new Big 12 and you'd have a weak league but one filled mostly with schools that really have no other options that could make them nearly as much money.  The exception would be BYU but as long as they were able to continue to broadcast their games on the own network, I'd think they would jump at the chance to be the western division counterpart to Texas' eastern division dominance.

The best scenario for the Big East is that the SEC only takes Big 12 teams.  The thing is there are a few ACC schools that might make good sense like Florida State, Clemson, Ga Tech, or Virginia Tech.  These aren't likely to happen because of politics (Florida doesn't want Florida State to join, Georgia doesn't want Ga Tech, etc, while the Virginia legislature won't let Va Tech leave Virginia) but it isn't out of the realm of possibility.  If the ACC loses a school the only place they are going to look is the Big East which will weaken the league.

If the SEC doesn't come after an ACC school another good option would be to just target a Big East school.  Syracuse, West Virginia, Pittsburgh and possibly Louisville are all targets that would open up additional markets and add television dollars.  Losing any of these schools would be a big loss for the Big East.

In the end I still think the most obvious thing that will happen is the SEC will only add Missouri.  It adds huge population base to the SEC footprint that is currently firmly follows Big Ten/Big 12 football and the politics are simple.  If that happens then that should be good news for the Big East but they aren't out of the woods because of their recent addition of TCU.  That's a problem for the Big East because after BYU, TCU is the most obvious target for the Big 12.

TCU is important to the Big East for a reason that few realize.  After this season the BCS does another recalculation which determines which schools get to participate as an automatic qualifier.  Many people don't know that the last time the BCS gave out the automatic qualifiers that they held a special hearing to give the Big East its slot.  That's because they'd just lost their 3 premier teams in Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College to the ACC so their existing members didn't rank high enough on their own to earn a spot.  Politics got involved and the members didn't want the political hassle with taking it away so they gave them a pass.  Fast forward to today and you have the Mountain West pushing hard for the 6th automatic spot.  After the completion of the 2011 season the BCS will take the results of the last 4 seasons and recalculate the automatic rankings which will determine automatic bids.

This is why TCU is important.  The calculations are based on the leagues current affiliation and last season was putrid for the Big East.  In fact their champion ended up out of the top 25 in the final BCS standings while Boise State and TCU were in the top 5.  That is huge hit in the calculation and will almost certainly mean that the Big East won't automatically qualify unless TCU joins their league.  That's when the politics will start again and as the Mountain West has had a lot more success they have a much better claim on the 6th spot.  That will be even more true if the ACC picks off a Syracuse or the SEC West Virginia.

I'm sure most Big East fans don't even realize the danger but I'm sure the league office is well aware and are working to get assurances of TCU's loyalty but in the end I can't believe they'd turn down a Big 12 offer.  I'm rooting for them to leave as it might be the final blow to break up the Big East so their teams can revert to their proper place in college football.