If you've read any of my past columns you'd know I'm an unabashed Big East hater. Part of it is due to my allegience to Ohio State and Miami University which means I have an inbred hatred for all things related to the University of Cincinnati. The other part is the fact that the Big East has one of the coveted automatic BCS slots that they earned through sheer politics and has nothing to do with football prowess. Be that as it may, I think the recent announcement by Texas A&M that they are moving to the SEC is a death blow to the Big East.
I know it sounds crazy. Most thing the Big 12 is the conference that is in real trouble but as long as Texas wants to be a part of it they will keep their BCS designation which will attract other teams. Even if the worst happens and somehow Oklahoma decides leaves Oklahoma State (won't happen), Texas knows it has a good thing in the Big 12. Texas really doesn't need to move to continue as the biggest moneymaker in college sports and they know it. Even if the SEC really went off the deep end and went to 16 with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Missouri there are a bunch of teams that would jump at the chance to join a league with an automatic bid.
Who are these teams? The first 4 are SMU, Houston, TCU and BYU. Plug these schools into a new Big 12 and you'd have a weak league but one filled mostly with schools that really have no other options that could make them nearly as much money. The exception would be BYU but as long as they were able to continue to broadcast their games on the own network, I'd think they would jump at the chance to be the western division counterpart to Texas' eastern division dominance.
The best scenario for the Big East is that the SEC only takes Big 12 teams. The thing is there are a few ACC schools that might make good sense like Florida State, Clemson, Ga Tech, or Virginia Tech. These aren't likely to happen because of politics (Florida doesn't want Florida State to join, Georgia doesn't want Ga Tech, etc, while the Virginia legislature won't let Va Tech leave Virginia) but it isn't out of the realm of possibility. If the ACC loses a school the only place they are going to look is the Big East which will weaken the league.
If the SEC doesn't come after an ACC school another good option would be to just target a Big East school. Syracuse, West Virginia, Pittsburgh and possibly Louisville are all targets that would open up additional markets and add television dollars. Losing any of these schools would be a big loss for the Big East.
In the end I still think the most obvious thing that will happen is the SEC will only add Missouri. It adds huge population base to the SEC footprint that is currently firmly follows Big Ten/Big 12 football and the politics are simple. If that happens then that should be good news for the Big East but they aren't out of the woods because of their recent addition of TCU. That's a problem for the Big East because after BYU, TCU is the most obvious target for the Big 12.
TCU is important to the Big East for a reason that few realize. After this season the BCS does another recalculation which determines which schools get to participate as an automatic qualifier. Many people don't know that the last time the BCS gave out the automatic qualifiers that they held a special hearing to give the Big East its slot. That's because they'd just lost their 3 premier teams in Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College to the ACC so their existing members didn't rank high enough on their own to earn a spot. Politics got involved and the members didn't want the political hassle with taking it away so they gave them a pass. Fast forward to today and you have the Mountain West pushing hard for the 6th automatic spot. After the completion of the 2011 season the BCS will take the results of the last 4 seasons and recalculate the automatic rankings which will determine automatic bids.
This is why TCU is important. The calculations are based on the leagues current affiliation and last season was putrid for the Big East. In fact their champion ended up out of the top 25 in the final BCS standings while Boise State and TCU were in the top 5. That is huge hit in the calculation and will almost certainly mean that the Big East won't automatically qualify unless TCU joins their league. That's when the politics will start again and as the Mountain West has had a lot more success they have a much better claim on the 6th spot. That will be even more true if the ACC picks off a Syracuse or the SEC West Virginia.
I'm sure most Big East fans don't even realize the danger but I'm sure the league office is well aware and are working to get assurances of TCU's loyalty but in the end I can't believe they'd turn down a Big 12 offer. I'm rooting for them to leave as it might be the final blow to break up the Big East so their teams can revert to their proper place in college football.
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