Texas and TCU hold the cards in expansion

A few weeks ago I wrote that Texas A&M's move to the SEC was the death knell to the Big East.  A few days after that I wrote on the Ozone this statement,

The bottom line for the Big 12 is how badly does Texas want to keep the Longhorn Network.  There is no way the Pac 12 is going to accept them and keep that network in tact.  The funny thing is Oklahoma has made no secret of the fact that they want to go to the Pac 12 regardless of Texas decision.  I guess no one told them that while the Pac 12 would love to have Oklahoma's tradition, the only way they would extend an invite to them is if Texas joins as well.  The Big 12 will have a BCS invite as long as Texas is in the league and they from all reports they want to keep it.  The league's survival depends entirely on Texas' decision on the Longhorn network.

 Many people thought this statement about Oklahoma was ludicrous as they are a top 10 program in terms of wins and tradition.  The Pac 12 no doubt would like that but they are more concerned with academics and market share.  The first problem for them is that they cannot move anywhere without taking Oklahoma State as well which dilutes profitability. Also, Oklahoma academics are third tier and their sister school Oklahoma State is even worse.  Finally, Oklahoma has a lot of fans but they are centered in a low market share with many graduates in Texas.  There aren't enough of them to create a regional network like the Pac 12 network plans to do in their current markets.  That wouldn't be the case if Texas joined.

Yesterday a story broke from Oklahoma that they'd stay in the Big 12 if Texas changed the revenue sharing for the Longhorn network and fired their commissioner Dan Beebe who has long been looked at as a Texas lacky.  That was an interesting development considering they had publicly stated for over a month that they were leaving if Texas A&M left.  I should have realized there was more to the story but I wasn't surprised when late last night the Pac 12 announced they weren't expanding.

The funny thing from the announcement is it initially said that the Pac 12 decided not to expand but after the reporters started talking to their inside sources it fell apart mostly because they couldn't get Texas' assurance about the Longhorn Network.  That doesn't mean the Pac 12 isn't going to expand, it just means that both Oklahoma and the Pac 12 are saying that if they are in either league there will be revenue sharing and they need to change their thinking.  It appears they've had to resort to a public statements to make the trustees at Texas see the light.

That doesn't mean they will do it.  Oklahoma has very little bargaining power as Texas knows that they are going anywhere without them.  The Oklahoma State anchor is their achilles heel as no one will take both.  That puts the decision where it has always been -- in Texas.

At this point I'd be shocked if Texas went to the Pac12.  There's just too many reasons not to go, least of all is geographically and the fact that most of the Pac 12 games are shown when Texans have moved on with their day.  I'm sure there aren't many fans that would have enjoyed the 1800 mile road trip to Seattle to watch a conference game (And I thought my dad's 600 mile trip to see Iowa was crazy).

In any event the question in my mind is where does the Big 12 go from here.  My guess is Texas will give the league a few concessions on the Longhorn network and announce a new commissioner but they have a few other obstacles.  Texas A&M is leaving and as I've said before, Missouri is the SEC's best option for the 14th team.  There are rumors out there that the SEC has already given them an invite and Missouri is waiting to see how things play out in the Big 12 before responding.  Don't believe that for a second.  What Missouri is really doing is waiting to see if the league disbands so they won't have to pay the exit fee.  That is probably what is happening with Texas A&M as well.  When it becomes apparent that the Big 12 will survive I think both schools will go despite the exit fee.

That will then mean the Big 12 is sitting at 8 schools of which only Texas has a realistic option to leave.  The question is what happens next and the obvious answer is they will grab at least 2 schools.  As I've said before I think the best choices are TCU and BYU though SMU/Houston/NTexas/Tulane/Rice are possibilities.  Some might think that some of these schools are too small to join the Big 12 but they are forgetting that the fact that the league doesn't share revenues equally so size doesn't matter as it won't impact any other schools revenue.

The other league in turmoil is the Big East and they are hurting from the recent defections of Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC.  The ACC might not be done as they are waiting to see if the SEC takes one of their schools (Florida State/Georgia Tech/Clemson/Va Tech) before making their next move.  If the SEC doesn't take anyone they may stay at 14 as it is much more manageable then 16 though they could take Rutgers/UConn to try to pin down the Northeast market.

That means the Big East has 6 schools in the league with TCU joining as the 7th next year.  That puts TCU in a pivotal spot.  The Big East is talking about expanding but their choices of  Army/ Navy/ Villanova/ Temple/ Central Florida/ Marshall aren't exactly powerhouses so I'd be shocked if they kept their automtic BCS qualifier status.  All it would take is that Texas give TCU assurances that they are committed to the Big 12 there is no doubt in my mind that they will join.  Their defection would pretty much end the Big East as a BCS league and bring them to the equivalent of Conference USA.