The BCS is currently set up to give an automatic bid to the conference champion of the Big Ten, SEC, Pac 10, Big 12, ACC, and Big East. Notre Dame also gets an automatic invite if they finish in the top 8. Teams from the non-BCS conferences get an invite if they finish in the top 12.
The current payout structure gives every BCS conference $17.7 Million plus an additional $4.5 million if a second team is invited. Notre Dame gets $1.3 million if they don't make the BCS and an additional $4.5 million if they are invited. Non-BCS conferences get $9.75 million automatically, $9.75 million if one of their teams gets an invite, and another $4.5 if a second team is invited (the total is split based on a formula devised by the non-BCS conferences). FWIW, an additional $1.8 million is given to the FCS conferences as well as $100,000 each to Army and Navy. ((These numbers are based on the 2009-10 season and will increase proportionally due to the new ESPN contract)).
As you can see from the above paragraph, the BCS has gotten very political with payouts to just about everyone to make them happy. What happens if the Big Ten expands from 11 teams to 16 teams? Do you think the bottom line oriented Jim Delany is going to be happy taking the Big Ten's current maximum share of $22.2 million of a total $142.5 million pool (15.5%)? With the addition of 5 teams I seriously doubt it.
If you do straight math the Big Ten will need to get $25.7 million to stay the same as they currently get on a per team basis (17.7 x 16 / 11) from the BCS or an additional $8.0 million. Assuming Notre Dame joins the conference their current deal will be additional leverage as well. My guess is Delany is going to insist that the Big Ten be given 2 automatic berths into the BCS as well as an opportunity to get a 3rd team. The second team would be paid at least $8.0 million for their invite.
The big question is where would the money come from to pay the Big Ten. The answer of course is it will come from $17.7 the BCS is currently paying to the Big East. In my opinion, the 8 team Big East shouldn't get a BCS payout today and with the loss of one team they are finished as a BCS conference. The remaining $9.7 million will be split between the conferences that pick up teams from the Big East as well as to pay off the the non-BCS conferences for their agreement.
I am sure that it won't be that simple as Big Ten expansion will more than likely effect the Big 12 as well and cause a ripple throughout college football as teams change conferences. The Pac 10 will also want a greater share if they expand and there is no doubt that the SEC will demand more regardless of conference realignment since their teams are a similar TV draw as the Big Ten. The wildcard in the whole thing is the members of the US Congress from the non-BCS areas as I'm sure they will opportunistically posture on the issue as an easy way to get local support. One thing is for sure.... the next few years are going to be very interesting as this gets resolved.
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