All websites have a few "celebrity posters" and one of them on the O-Zone is a guy by the name of 7NCs7Heisman. He is a dedicated Buckeye fan that has an additional burdens to bear, he lives in Birmingham and is married to a woman that graduated from the University of Alabama. Now don't get me wrong, I like Alabama. My job has taken me to Birmingham many times and it I really like the area. I actually like Mobile a bit better and have no dislike for Alabama in general. It's the Bama fans I can't stand (Disclaimer - I'm sure people who come to Columbus feel the same way about Buckeye fans and they'd probably be right). I think 7NCs7Heisman constant exposure to rabid Alabama fans during their recent success has sapped his sanity to the point he had to find a way to fight back against the Tide faithful. I noticed in December that he started posting very frequently on the subject of oversigning. During the month of January, I don't think a day went by without a post from him complaining about how Nick Saban used oversigning to turn a program that had become a laughingstock into a national champion. After a while it became a bit of a running joke but he took it to the next level and created a blog specifically dedicated to the subject. After hearing his rantings for a few months I was a bit jaded on the topic because it is easy to mistake his criticisms for sour grapes as a result of the Buckeyes lack of success against the SEC. But the more I looked the more I was convinced. This "crazy" Buckeye exposed for me a dirty secret that I'm sure the NCAA would prefer no one knew.
No matter how careful a coach is when it comes to recruiting, not every player is going to be around for graduation 4 years later. Some are lucky enough to leave early for the NFL, but many more are likely to leave the school for other reasons. Players transfer due to lack of playing time, leave school due to grades or disciplinary reasons, or quit the team because of a medical condition. It would be easy to control this area if everything was black and white but there are always grey areas and many schools across the nation take advantage of the rules. There are a few ways kids leave school early in addition to going to the NFL.
Transfers
There is nothing to stop a coach from encouraging one of his scholarship athletes to transfer. There are different methods and it isn't always nefarious. Sometimes going to a school that is a better fit might be the right thing to do. It doesn't always happen that way. As scholarships are renewed on an annual basis, some coaches use the carrot and stick method of "transfer or we will pull your scholarship". No kid wants the public humiliation of losing their scholarship so they transfer and a vague press release is issued. Only the coach and the player know the truth of the matter.
Grades
This is a trickier but similar to Transfers. Occasionally some players will let their schoolwork slide and be put on academic probation. Most schools have an academic support structure to work with the players to improve their results but it isn't always successful. If a player can't keep get eligible then they are useless to the team and will most likely soon be back at home with mom and dad. I'm guessing there is a bit more leniency for a star player than a bench warmer.
Disciplinary
No team is immune from the fact that they are dependent on 18-22 year olds for their success. Males at that age are notorious for their ability to do stupid things. I look back on that time in my life and am amazed I didn't end up in trouble with the law at least once. Making mistakes is part of the growing up process and no coach can be 100% sure none of his players are going to get themselves into trouble. However if you combine bad play with bad behavior, you are giving a coach a good opportunity to free up a scholarship.
Medical
Football is a rough sport and no one that has played for a few years comes away entirely unscathed. Some careers are cut short in an instant by a catastrophic injury. The gray area occurs when a nagging injury limits the ability of a player to ever be a contributor on the field even if they are operating at 90% of their former self. Some teams leave these players on the team as a role model to contribute in other ways. Others use it as an opportunity to get a medical exemption to release a player from their scholarship.
Each one of these factors cause attrition to every team in college football but some schools seem to have much higher attrition rates than others. That is where oversigning comes in. The NCAA mandates a scholarship limit of 85 per school. This 85 is determined at the start of the school year in August. Every year a school has to recruit high school players to replace the students they lose.
(+) Current players
(-) Graduating players
(-) Underclassmen leaving early for the NFL
(-) Other (Transfers or Left team due to Grades, Medical, Discipline)
(=) Total
Since a school can only have 85 players on the team in August, in theory a team should take this number and subtract it from 85 for their maximum number of letters of intent. The thing is many schools go over this amount as they know that attrition will continue over the course of spring and summer to eventually get this number down to 85. Some conferences including the Big Ten will not allow their schools to offer scholarships over this number to ensure fair play. Many schools and coaches follow this rule without an official rule as they feel an obligation to their players. Some schools do not and that is where 7NCs7Heismans focused his attention on Alabama.
His website has a steady stream of posts that shed light on the oversigning subject along with data to back up his claims. I know he has tried to expand his focus from strictly Ohio State and Alabama but has had difficulty since there are so many gray areas and he has easier access to data from these programs. The gist of his issue is this, over the last 4 years Alabama has offered 113 (25, 32, 27, 29) scholarships and Ohio State has offered 78 (15, 20, 25, 18). Another way to think of this is during this time the Crimson Tide has offered almost 50% more scholarships to high school athletes than the Buckeyes. How is this possible? The answer is oversigning.
On national signing day the Crimson Tide signed a stellar class of 29 and got earned ranking of 5th in the nation according to Rivals.com. At the time they had 66 players on scholarship meaning they had made 95 commitments to players that they would have a spot in the fall. Doing simple math that meant they made 10 promises they weren't going to keep. Oversigning.com calls posts dealing with this issue "The March to 85". 4 players have left the team since February so they are down to 91 commitments or 6 players that won't be putting on Alabama colors in the fall.
As I explained above, teams are always going to lose players. Some schools oversign to cover for this. Others give the scholarship to a veteran walk-on or just bank them for a future year. If most fans had their choice between the two options most would choice to give them to loyal veterans as long as it didn't hurt the results on the field. The thing is since it is not against the rules there is pressure to oversign. When you look around the country it is easy to find the biggest perpetrators by looking at the number of recruits signed every year over an extended period of time. Oversigning.com has done this in their recruiting numbers section. Just using the information it appears that the SEC has the worst offender in teams like Auburn (28.1), Alabama (26.1), Mississippi (26.3), Mississippi State (27.4), Arkansas (26.6) and South Carolina (26.9). Some argue this is due to the schools systems in those states but I wonder why they aren't able to do better as Florida (23.3), Georgia (23.0) and Tennessee (24.0) are much better (with solid program's as well). It isn't always successful (see Iowa State (27.0)) but the "powers" in the Big East, Louisville (25.7) and West Virginia (26.1) have used it to good affect to try to find national significance. The ACC is an interesting story as they have typically have lower than average numbers but there seems to be a spike at North Carolina since Butch Davis arrival. The best conferences are the ACC (20.2), Big Ten (22.1), and Pac 10 (23.1).
Anyone that thinks this doesn't affect results on the field is delusional. A good example of this occurred in the last days of the 2010 Buckeye class. They were desperate to get more offensive linemen and only had 2 scholarships left to stay under 85. They sent offers to two 4+ star players and both decided to go elsewhere. Meanwhile, two 3 star players from the state of Ohio decided to go Iowa. This is going to be a serious issue for the Buckeyes in 2011 as offensive depth will be a serious issue. If Jim Tressel behaved like Alabama he would have signed the two linemen in Ohio while also waiting for the blue chip players to sign. He would have little downside because if any the the signee's didn't perform he could get rid of them using the tactics mentioned above.
I do give the NCAA some props for their recent attempts to fix the issue with the recent adoption of APR (Academic Progress Rate). The thing is most schools have found ways to offset this as transfers and medical hardships don't count against a team's results. I like the APR and think it should continue but it will never fix the oversigning problem. The thing is the problems is so easy to fix it is laughable. The NCAA should require every school to make a commitment to two groups of players on National Signing day. One to their existing players that if they follow the rules they will have a scholarship waiting in August. The other committment would be to the recruits signing their LOI (letters of intent). The combination of these two lists can't be any higher than 85. Problem solved.
The fact that the NCAA allows oversigning to continue only furthers my belief that they care too much about the member institutions and not enough about the youth that actually play the games. It is long overdue to change this.
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