As I've said in previous posts the BCS is a bit complicated and very political. Most of this is due to the fact that the non-BCS conferences see the money generated and they want more. The BCS paid out $142.5 million last year and it was split as follows:
22.2 Big Ten (One automatic bid + one invite (4.5))
22.2 SEC (One automatic bid + one invite(4.5))
17.7 Pac 10 (One automatic bid)
17.7 Big 12 (One automatic bid)
17.7 Big East (One automatic bid)
17.7 ACC (One automatic bid)
24.0 Non-BCS (Annual base payout (9.75) + one invite (9.75) + 2nd invite (4.5))
1.3 Notre Dame (Annual base payout)
0.2 Army/Navy (Annual base payout)
1.8 FCS Conferences (Annual base payout)
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142.5 Total Paid out
More after the break....
I'm guessing that there are a few surprises on the list for a few people but I'm going to focus on just the Non-BCS part. One thing to keep in mind is there are 52 FBS teams in conferences but aren't in the BCS. The $24.0 million that was made by the non-BCS conferences in 2009 was split based on weighted formula agreed to by each conference. Last year was perhaps the best season ever for the non-BCS schools but keep in mind that they still earned about $1.0 million less than an average BCS school. $1 million would go a long way to keep many athletic departments in the black so it is no wonder that many of them are bringing as much political pressure that they can to become a BCS automatic qualifier.
When the last BCS deal was struck there was an addition made to give conferences the opportunity to become an automatic qualifier league. The league is ranked vs other conferences based on three items::
- The ranking of the highest-ranked team in the final BCS Standings each year (if a conference does not place a team in the final BCS Standings, then its highest-ranked team is determined by the conference member that has the highest average ranking in the computer rankings used in the BCS Standings)
- The final regular-season rankings of all conference teams in the computer rankings used by the BCS each year.
- The number of teams in the top 25 of the final BCS Standings each year, with adjustments to account for differences in the number of members of each conference.
- #3 - Addendum - Points will be awarded to the conferences based on their teams' finishes in the top 25 of the final BCS Standings each year. Points will be awarded as follows:Teams finishing 1-6: 4 points for each team
Teams finishing 7-12: 3 points for each team
Teams finishing 13-18: 2 points for each team
Teams finishing 19-25: 1 point for each team
The point totals will be adjusted to account for the size of the conference, as follows:
- 12+ members- no adjustment- 10-11 members - + 12.5 percent- 9- members - +25 percent
- A conference will become the seventh automatic qualifier if it finishes among the top six conferences in both No. 1 and No. 2 and if its ranking in No. 3 is equal to or greater than 50 percent of the conference with the highest ranking in No. 3.
- Further, a conference will be eligible to apply to the Presidential Oversight Committee for an exemption if it finishes among the top six in both No. 1 and No. 2 and if its ranking in No. 3 is equal to or greater than 33.3 percent of the conference with the highest ranking in No. 3, OR
- If it finishes among the top seven in either No. 1 or No. 2 and among the top five in the other and if its ranking in No. 3 is equal to or greater than 33.3 percent of the conference with the highest ranking in No. 3.
"If it finishes among the top seven in either No. 1 or No. 2 and among the top five in the other and if its ranking in No. 3 is equal to or greater than 33.3 percent of the conference with the highest ranking in No. 3."To become the seventh qualifier a league can finish 7th in #2 but they have to finish in the top 5 in #1. Let's ignore #3 for now (it is a non-factor fwiw). Looking at the rules this is the only way that any conference could possibly become an automatic qualifier.
So how do these conferences stack up? Here are the average computer rankings for 2009:
34.9 - SEC
36.5 - Big East
39.2 - Pac 10
46.0 - ACC
51.4 - Big Ten
53.1 - Big 12
63.1 - Mountain West
76.2 - WAC
78.5 - Conference USA
89.7 - Mid-American
Other than the fact that this list shows the BCS computer rankings to be deeply flawed since the Big East ended up second, you can clearly see that the Mountain West is really the only possibility to be the 7th conference. That is why Boise State moved there after last season which would make these numbers even worse (if you are wondering, Utah and Boise pretty much offset one another).
So ultimately we are looking to see if the Mountain West can finish in 5th place using #1 from the criteria above. Here are the average for the top BCS ranked team in each conference for 2008-9 combined:
1.5 - SEC
1.5 - Big 12
5.0 - MWC
6.0 - Pac 10
7.5 - Big East
7.5 - WAC
8.0 - Big Ten
11.5 - ACC
Here is the rankings if you adjust for the fact that Utah and Boise State are changing conferences.
1.5 - SEC
1.5 - Big 12
6.0 - Pac 10
7.5 - Big East
7.5 - MWC
8.0 - Big Ten
11.5 - ACC
I have no idea if the BCS will look at current makeup or conference makeup at the time of competition but the MWC qualifies under both. Just to show you how #3 would work out here are the numbers:
Before conference changes:
22.0 - SEC
20.3 - Big Ten
20.0 - Big 12
20.0 - MWC
15.8 - Pac 10
15.0 - Big East
12.0 - ACC
After conference adjustments:
22.0 - SEC
19.0 - Big Ten
19.0 - Big 12
19.0 - Pac 10
18.0 - MWC
15.0 - Big East
12.0 - ACC
All the Mountain West has to do is be at 33.3% of the top school and they are over 80% in both (told you it was a non-factor :) ).
OK.... let's go back and re-read the part about how a team can become an automatic qualifier. Note that only the first option gives a conference automatic qualifier with no discussion (and remember that option is impossible give current circumstances). If a conference qualifies under the other two options they will be eligible to apply to the Presidential Oversight Committee for an exemption. This is where politics enters the picture. The Mountain West will use every bit of political muscle to pressure the BCS to grant them status and I have no doubt that the BCS will cave. As the politicians will no doubt note ... they qualified using the BCS's own standard.
To make this a slam dunk, the Mountain West needs to improve the perception of their conference so they can present the best image possible. The review period will ultimately cover 2008-2011 so it is important they do whatever they can before the end of that time period to upgrade their quality of play. Translated that means raiding the Western Athletic Conference and surprise! ... They recently invited Nevada and Fresno State to join the conference. Who finished finished 2nd and 3rd behind Boise State in the WAC last year and are consistently among the best in that league? Nevada and Fresno State. These additions wouldn't help them in the rankings but they will help politically. If BYU does stay in the league that would give them 11 teams and they could possibly add a team to have a championship game and further enhance their reputation. A good candidate would be Houston who finished 29th in the BCS computer rankings last year and was the Conference USA champion. They would give TCU the local rival they are lacking but I digress....
Before I get to the question I raised at the beginning, I want to take a last quick look at the likelihood that the MWC will qualify under this "loophole". After all 2009 was a special year. The question is can they repeat it. I am only going to compare the league using the "after conference realignment" numbers to keep it simple. This is the average rank of the top rated team in each league for 2008-9 (repeated from above):
1.5 - SEC
1.5 - Big 12
6.0 - Pac 10
7.5 - Big East
7.5 - MWC
8.0 - Big Ten
11.5 - ACC
The key for the Mountain West is they have to stay in 5th place or they won't be able to even apply. Note that the conferences behind them are the ACC and the Big Ten. This whole ranking is based on highest rated BCS team at the end of the year. Currently Boise State is ranked #5, and TCU is #7 for the Mountain West. Here's the standings if the conferences finished like they are ranked in preseason:
1.3 - SEC
2.3 - Big 12
6.0 - Big Ten
6.7 - MWC
7.7 - Pac 10
9.7 - ACC
10.0 - Big East
I feel pretty confident that with 3 highly ranked teams, the Big Ten will most likely pass the Mountain West. On the other hand, the MWC has a good opportunity to pass both the Pac 10 and the Big East which don't have marquee teams in 2010. The key for them is to win. If TCU or Boise State finish 5th or better it will almost be impossible for the leagues behind them to do anything about it in 2011.
I'm not sure why the experts that put together the BCS created a system that could possibly allow anyone to qualify. They really should have only paid lip service to the whole thing. Like I've said before I don't think the Big East should be a BCS automatic qualifier and I certainly don't think the Mountain West should be one either. If the Mountain West is able to qualify under this provision then you know that Washington politics will do the rest. This would be a huge boon for the Mountain West as they'd go from a conference that made $5-7 million from the BCS to a conference that made $17 million guaranteed. The only question remaining after that happens is where will that money come from and there is really only one answer to that question - the existing BCS schools.
Every school in the country is faced with tighter and tighter budgets and I can't imagine that current BCS conference commissioners/presidents would be happy about of getting less money from their cash cow. If their hand is forced I'd wouldn't be surprised to see them end the current system altogether. Keep in mind that ultimately bowls are contracts between an organizing committee and teams/conferences. The BCS has added a layer of bureaucracy to the bowl system to manage it but it is also an easy target. Without the BCS the Congress could do little and with the bowls no longer constrained they would bring in the best possible match ups. That would spell doom for the little guy.
I guess the moral of the story is this -- the little conferences should be careful what they wish for because they might just get it. I'm personally rooting for about 2 losses each from TCU and Boise State which will end all of this nonsense.
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