The ramifications of Big 10 expansion

Recently the press have gotten a leak that the study for the Big 10 expansion includes 5 schools: Notre Dame, Missouri, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse. I think a few things are evident in this release.

1. This was deliberately done by the Big Ten office to put pressure on Texas/Notre Dame and let them know that if they want to be included in the league that time is running short.
   
2. The schools included aren't a big shock and should quiet the people that keep insisting that teams like Miami FL, Colorado, Connecticutt, or Maryland belong on the list.
   
3. The target conferences are the Big 12 (1) and the Big East (3).

Ultimately I don't think Texas or Notre Dame will join the Big 10 and both have reasons for their decisions. Texas has many reasons mostly revolving around distance from the Big 10, the loss of current traditions, and Texas politics. The reason Notre Dame won't join the league is almost entirely due to their tradition of independence. Let's take a moment to look at the ramifications of the Big 10 (and Pac 10) expansion(s).



The Big East is a problem for Notre Dame

As stated earlier, the Big 10 is looking to add 1 team and from the looks of the leak, it appears that this team will most likely come from the Big East (although I still believe Missouri is the best candidate). If this occurs then the Big East will be less of a legitimate conference than ever and be forced to find another team to fill out the league. The problem is that the Big East had to scramble 2 years ago to get to its current roster when Boston College, Miami, and Virginia Tech left the league to join the ACC. They currently sit at 8 teams which is the least for any conference that gets an automatic bid. The bigger problem for the Big East is it is ultimately a Basketball conference with only 8 members that play football and their isn't an obvious expansion candidate. The two conferences with members that make the most sense are the MAC and Conference USA but schools from either of these will improve the Big East reputation in football. In my opinion it is very likely that the Big East will lose their BCS designation and be forced to face the difficult question of whether they can continue to allow teams to be "basketball only" participation. Since Notre Dame is currently a member of the Big East in everything except football I believe their decision may come down to what they believe is more important - independence in football vs a safe haven for their non-revenue sports. It is certainly more involved than that but for now I'll leave this topic.

The Big 12 is a problem for Texas

Texas is currently the most profitable atheletic program in the United States so the question for them is -- why change? The reason is change is coming to the Big 12 whether they like it or not. The Big 12 has 6 main TV markets - Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, St. Louis, Kansas City and Denver. The first 3 are controlled by Texas, the next 2 are controlled by Missouri/Nebraska, and the last is controlled by Colorado. The problem is that the Big Ten is looking at Missouri while the Pac 10 is taking a look at Colorado which means that if this occurs then the top 3 non-Texas TV markets would be gone. The Big 12 is already has a very weak TV contract and that would get worse if this occurs. The replacement options aren't great either as the choice would be to add more Texas schools like TCU or expand their horizons and add teams like New Mexico, Colorado State or Boise State. No matter who they choose there is no doubt the league will be weakened and Texas is going to be faced with a situation whether they want to continue playing in a league on the decline.

Will the BCS react?

The BCS is pretty straightforwad in their mission -- to match the 2 best teams every year in a bowl game to determine the college football national champion. Subordinate to this is to match other top teams in the remaining 4 bowl games. You could make a decent argument today that the Big 12 and Big East don't pull their weight as the talent in both leagues is demonstratively worse the the top 4 leagues (there are 30% less players drafted on the average team in the Big 12 vs the average ACC/Pac10/Big10/SEC team and this is 60% less in the Big East). If either league loses a team this disparity will only increase and at some point the other conferences will put pressure for a more equitable split of the money. In the long run I believe this will mean the formation of super conferences and the question for Texas and Notre Dame is if they feel comfortable waiting until the situation is clearer. The only problem with this strategy is whether there will be a seat at the table when/if they are ever ready.