Wisconsin vs Ohio State

I rarely do predictions but that is because 90% of the time it is because Ohio State is favored and then they proceed to pummel the opposition for a victory.  This season has been a struggle and the team has lost a few games I thought they'd win (Miami and Michigan State).  I figured they'd lose the Nebraska game which they should have won.  I did think they'd beat Illinois mainly because all signs pointed to Ron Zook's Illini winning the game and those are the games that Zook always loses.  There were many positive things that came out of that game but there were three things that will play a huge role in the Wisconsin game.

1. The return of Boom - Boom Herron was a huge difference in the Illinois game as he has vision and toughness that was missing from the other running backs.  No doubt the other running backs have talent and are great backups to him but it is nice to have a feature back that we can trust.  This offensive line is possible the best in the last decade and it is a shame that Boom only will get a half season to show his talents.
2. The maturation of Braxton - Braxton Miller didn't do anything particularly well against Illinois and only threw 4 passes with 1 completion.  Most people that didn't see the game would think it was a bad game by him but the reason they didn't pass more was the 30-40 mph winds and the coaches didn't want to risk the young QBs psyche in the swirling winds.  If the game was closer I'm sure they would have passed the ball but the team was content run the clock and win the surest way.  The key for me is that Braxton looked entirely comfortable behind center for the first time all season.  That annoys me a bit because it makes me think that if he'd played more earlier that the Miami and MSU games would have turned out differently.
3. The rise of the Silver Bullets - This years defense is really young and lost 7 starters from last years team and due to injuries have 9 players that are really new.  It takes time for a young defense to learn how to play together and this team is really coming together.  I feel sorry for teams that have to face them next year but they will continue to get better every game this year and as they shut down the previously high powered Illinois offense I expect that to continue.

These were positive signs coming out of the game.  The Buckeyes also have the advantage of a bye week which I expect the coaches used to reflect on the first half of the season and implement changes to better take advantage of their personnel and put together a specific game plan for Wisconsin.

This game is especially important because the Buckeyes should be the favorites in the rest of their games but they need to win this one to have a shot to win the league title.  The coaches know this and can't afford to play passive so I expect no holds barred.

Here are the keys to the game:

• The Ohio State linebackers - Wisconsin isn't very tricky as they expect to run the ball and wear down their opposition.  The one weak area on Ohio State's team is at linebacker as the play has been several levels down from what we've seen in the past.  The players there are big though not especially quick.  That works well against Wisconsin as their running game is a power game so the key is making sure they take good angles.  If they do this they will shut down Wisconsin's running game (meaning <150 yds as you can't shut it down completely).
• Contain Russell Wilson - The defensive line has to stay in their lanes and not let Wilson get to the outside where he can hurt you with his legs.  I expect the Buckeyes to put a safety in the box  to contain the running game and as the cornerbacks will need to stay manned up on the receivers on roll out passes, roll out passes could be especially dangerous.  I expect to see a quite a bit of blitzing to keep Wilson off balance and hopefully contain him.
• The offense needs to keep the defense off the field - Boom Herron has to have a good game and the team needs to have many long drives to keep the defense fresh.  We can't have a let down like happened at Nebraska as the defense folded but the offense didn't do them any favors with the 3 and outs.
• Braxton has to pass the ball - Wisconsin's defense isn't as great as their numbers suggest as their competition thus far hasn't been great (Neb and MSU excepted).  There are holes in this defense and Braxton has to take advantage.  I'm hoping the coaching staff has developed a game plan exclusively for Braxton to take advantage of his talents.  Now that Guiton is the #2 quarterback (and he has similar talents) there is no reason for two gameplans which should allow them to simplify and diversify the offense.  If I was Wisconsin I'd put 9 in the box until Braxton showed he could beat them deep which is why I'd start the game running for the first few plays then start working on the edges with swing passes and out patterns (I know Braxton can do this but we haven't seen one yet).  Once Wisconsin has to play honest, the running game should dominate.

My gut feeling in this game is that people have over rated Wisconsin because they haven't played a single team with a good offense.  Their offense is no doubt good but they haven't played a team with the talent that Ohio State has on defense.  This is absolutely a game that Ohio State can win but it is largely going to fall on the shoulders of the linebackers and Braxton Miller for it to happen.

I'm unsure if the linebackers will be able to hold Wisconsin all game so the Buckeyes are going to need to score points but I do think that Braxton is going to surprise people tonight (Posey would be really nice to have though as I'm still worried about our wide receivers).  Final score - Ohio State 28 - Wisconsin 24

GO BUCKS!!!