Player
G
Min
PPG
RPG
APG
SPG
BPG
TPG
Jared Sullinger
37
30.4
17.5
9.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.9
Deshaun Thomas
39
31.4
15.9
5.4
0.9
0.4
0.2
1.2
William Buford
39
33.8
14.5
5.0
2.7
0.8
0.2
2.2
Aaron Craft
39
32.2
8.8
3.2
4.6
2.5
0.2
2.2
Lenzelle Smith, Jr.
39
25.4
6.8
4.6
2.0
0.9
0.1
1.2
Others
48.4
12.1
7.6
3.2
1.5
1.4
3.1
75.6
35.0
14.6
7.3
3.2
11.8
These players represent 63% of the points and 56% of the rebounds this season which has many fans questioning whether we can replicate it in 2012-3.
This got me to wondering how next year's team would look if this does happen and so I created a spreadsheet and using each players play per minute this season I extrapolated next year's results based on how many minutes I expect each player to contribute next year.
MIN
PPG
RPG
APG
SPG
BPG
TPG
Aaron Craft
35
9.6
3.5
5.0
2.7
0.2
2.4
Shannon Scott
25
2.8
2.6
4.0
0.8
0.2
1.1
Lenzelle Smith, Jr.
25
6.7
4.5
2.0
0.9
0.1
1.2
Sam Thompson
20
4.0
2.1
1.3
0.7
0.8
1.0
LaQuinton Ross
25
12.8
2.6
0.6
0.5
-
1.2
J.D. Weatherspoon
25
12.1
4.6
0.8
1.1
0.8
1.3
Amir Williams
25
6.4
8.0
0.4
-
3.0
1.9
Evan Ravenel
15
5.0
3.2
0.4
0.5
0.3
1.0
Trey McDonald
5
0.3
0.9
0.2
0.2
-
0.5
200
59.7
31.9
14.8
7.3
5.5
11.6
As you can see most of the statistical categories are similar with the notable exception of blocks and points (hence the understandable concern). The thing is every basketball game has a set number of possessions and the Buckeye tooks 1.38 field goal attempts per minute in 2011-2. Using the stats below equates to about 1.15 field goal attempts per minute, a reduction of about 20%. That's because players that weren't named Sullinger, Buford, or Thomas weren't supposed to shoot this season. Next season that won't be the case and many players will be called on to shoot more often. If anything I expect next year's team to shoot more because it is more athletic. I made a few adjustments to the shots per minute to get it closer to the 1.38 of this year's team while adjusting the field goal percentage to better represent their new role. Here's the results:
MIN
PPG
RPG
APG
SPG
BPG
TPG
Aaron Craft
35
12.7
3.5
5.0
2.7
0.2
2.4
Shannon Scott
25
5.7
2.6
4.0
0.8
0.2
1.1
Lenzelle Smith, Jr.
25
8.5
4.5
2.0
0.9
0.1
1.2
Sam Thompson
20
4.8
2.6
1.3
0.7
0.8
1.0
LaQuinton Ross
25
14.3
3.3
0.6
0.5
-
1.2
J.D. Weatherspoon
25
12.6
5.0
0.8
1.1
0.8
1.3
Amir Williams
25
10.7
8.0
0.4
-
3.0
1.9
Evan Ravenel
15
5.9
3.2
0.4
0.5
0.3
1.0
Trey McDonald
5
0.7
0.9
0.2
0.2
-
0.5
200
75.8
33.5
14.8
7.3
5.5
11.6
This seems to be a better representation of what we can expect next year for the Buckeyes to succeed. The keys are:
- Craft has to improve his outside shot and be a threat on the offensive side.
- Sam Thompson needs to get stronger to help on rebounds and on offensive.
- LaQuinton Ross needs to be as good as advertised. Our year might dependant on this.
- JD Weatherspoon is the other wildcard. We know he can make spectacular dunks and hopefully his rebounding and ability to make 10 footers next year is just as dynamic.
- Amir Williams needs to get stronger and be a beast on the boards. His shot blocking ability will make the Buckeyes defense better next year if he can dominate the defensive glass.
Of course this assumes that Thomas won't return and that Matta won't find a last minute recruit for next year. Even if that happens I feel pretty good about next year's team. If Thomas returns the biggest problem will be finding minutes to keep the bench happy as everyone's PPG will go down by about 30%. Either way it should be fun.
Assuming Thomas doesn't come back, it will be interesting to check back in a year and see how close my guesses are to the final results.
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