Tuesday, July 31, 2012

The Browns draft Josh Gordon in the 2nd round of the Supplemental Draft–Was it worth it?

I wrote this a few weeks ago and forgot to post it.
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Yesterday the Cleveland Browns selected Josh Gordon with their 2nd round pick in the supplemental draft.  The pick was actually 2nd pick in the 2nd round as the supplemental draft is run similar to the NBA lottery and teams with 6 wins and under get put into a hat and picked at random.  Buffalo had the first pick.
Before this draft many people were claiming the Browns needed to go after him.  The other expected teams interested were the Bills, the Dolphins, and the Redskins.  He was projected to go in either the 3rd or 4th round but the Browns chose him in the 2nd so this obviously was a bad move.  Right?
What many people are forgetting is the NFL draft isn't always about how good teams expect a player to perform.  It's about the value other teams place on where that player will be picked.  An example would be if you have done your study and feel 100% confident that a player is a future all pro.  That usually equates to a 1st round pick.  The projection services and 'experts' have them ranked in the 3rd round so the question is:
Do you draft them in the 1st?
Of course not.  You draft the player you want a round before you think someone else will take them or in this case a 2nd round pick.
The experts have all given Gordon glowing rankings and that may be because this was a draft of one person.  After all, who's going to read an article that says a player is bad and people should ignore them.  Many columnists write what they think people will want to read, not their actual opinions.
There are many people interested as summarized in this post that puts Gordon anywhere from mid 1st to late 2nd if he declared for the 2012 draft.
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If the name Kendall Wright sounds familiar, he's the player the Browns had targeted at the 22nd pick in the first round in 2012 but he was taken at 20.  That caused them to take Brandon Weedon as they wanted to take QB/WR in their 22nd and 37th picks and felt they couldn't afford the change that someone else would take Weedon.
There's only so many players that can help your team and the rest are marginal prospects that end up on the bench or cut.  Once Wright was gone the Browns front office felt there weren't any other great WRs.  Weedon was the only QB left that could beat out Colt McCoy.  That's how the draft works.  Luck and timing have as much to do with a good draft as skill and the key for the Browns is they are in desperate need of help at WR.
The Browns were snake bit this season.  They really wanted Robert Griffin III and offered this years 1st, next years 1st, and this years 37th pick for him.  It was a huge gamble but the Redskins upped the ante and gave their next three #1 picks to move up.  That's why the Browns ended up with Weedon who would have been ranked as high as RG3 if he wasn't 29.  That made them take the best player available in their mind of Trent Richardson.
Going into the draft they needed RB, RG, QB, and WR in no particular order.  As things turned out the only position they weren't able to fill was WR which is why Gordon was so intriguing to the team.  When the supplemental drafted, the Browns front office had a difficult decision.  Risk that Gordon is going to be available at their spot in the 3rd or take a risk at 2nd.  Most experts ranked him as a late 2nd rounder at worst.  He is no doubt raw and won't be able to step in right away but you can't teach his combination of size and speed.  In his one year at Baylor 42 catches for 714 yards (a 17-yard average) and seven touchdowns.  He was better, faster, and biggest then Kendall Wright that was just picked 20th.
The Browns chose him and I feel good about the pick.  He’s raw but look at his size and speed.
Good hands, good speed, good size. A definite lack of experience but the athleticism is evident.
The Browns had a stellar defense in 2011 but not many noticed as the offense kept them on the field most of the game.  The biggest flaw on offense was any resemblance of a passing game.  The issue on offense is directly related to the 2008(?) draft where the Browns took two wideouts in the 2nd round.  2nd round picks are expected to have long careers and they missed badly on both Robiskie and Massaquoi.  With other issues on the team, they couldn’t afford to spend more picks on a wide-out and bet these players would develop.  Last season it was obvious that was never going to happen which is what lead to their decision which some might see as desperation.
There’s no doubt that drafting Gordon was a risk and will set the team back a few years if he turns out to be a bust like the 2nd rounders from a few seasons ago.  It’s still a risk I like.  If he develops along with the other incoming top picks, the Browns will surprise this season and be playoff contenders next.














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