Friday, August 3, 2012

Most Fans of College football want a 16 team playoff (which prove most fans are dumb)

Graham Watson at Yahoo Sports has done a series of blogs about the discussion BCS conferences and how they are most likely moving to a playoff involving 4 teams.  He asked the fans what they wanted and the overwhelming response was summarized by one response.
"A 4 team playoff would be really weak, barely better than what there is now," wrote Andrew from College Station. "8-12 is better, but it would still find ways to snub teams."
Overwhelmingly, those who responded seemed to be in favor of a 16-team playoff (an idea that I liked) that would include all 11 conference champions and five at large teams.
"I would propose a 16 team playoff with each conference champ included," wrote Chris from St. Louis. "The remaining 5 at-large bids would go (to) teams with (the) highest ranking. Would almost always have the top 8 - 10 teams included and give the little guy a shot. Makes winning a conference championship worth something."
I hate this idea because with 5 at large teams it makes the regular season meaningless.  I also hate it because there is no way the MAC, Sunbelt, WAC, Big East, Mountain West, or Conference USA should get an automatic bid.  More than that though it is naive and ignores some really big issues.

Logistics
Currently the college football season starts the last week of August and continues for 14 weeks (12 games and 1 bye plus one week for the conference championships).  To have a 16 team playoff you'd need a 4 week playoff.  Many that propose this system say you should put the conference championships the week after Thanksgiving.  Using this season as an example this would be the schedule:

Start of college football season: August 25th
End of college football season: November 17th
Conference championships: November 24th
1st Round: December 1st
2nd Round: December 8th
Semifinals: January 1st
Championship: January 8th

This would mean a few things.
  • The start of camp would be moved into July meaning players which is a time when many of them are taking classes which allows them to take a lighter load during football season.  
  • Fans expect the season to start in early September after Labor Day.  Moving it earlier could affect ticket sales/viewing (though I admit this is a weak argument)
  • College football's regular season would end on November 17th and bowl bound teams wouldn't have another game for well over a month.

None of these individually is a deal breaker but will be a concern for the presidents/commissioners that run college football.  This will be used as a smoke screen for the bigger issue in the next section.

Revenue Sharing
Most people believe that the only reason the BCS commissioners are meeting is because the BCS system isn't giving us a true champion.  That is important to the commissioners but it's about 10th on their list of importance.  Things above it are all about protecting the regular season, protecting the bowls, and protecting the BCS conferences share of the money.

I've touched on it in other articles but the main reason the commissioners are meeting is 1) the BCS contract is up in 2 years and they need to develop a new one, 2) they are tired of inroads the small conferences have made into college football, and 3) they are worried that the government is going to get involved and force them to do something they don't want to do.

The ratings in the last BCS bowls were terrible and that caused ESPN and the NCAA to panic.  That is why they are meeting but if you think we will ever have a 16 team playoff you are dreaming.

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