Thursday, December 31, 2009

The myth of Big Ten Inferiority

It is tiresome to hear all the so-called experts on TV continue the myth about how much faster and more talented the west coast and southern schools are than Big 10 schools. I think a pretty good judge of talent would be looking at the NFL draft since they have millions of dollars riding on their decisions.

Details after the break though I think the answer might surprise you.



Here are the top 25 teams listed by number of drafted players by the NFL from the 2000-09 drafts (first round picks in parenthesis):

69 Ohio State (16)
63 Miami (FL) (24)
62 USC (15)
56 Florida State (13)
55 Georgia (10)
54 Tennessee (10)
50 Florida (9)
49 Louisiana State (9)
47 Virginia Tech (4)
46 Michigan (8)
44 Wisconsin (8)
42 Notre Dame (2)
42 Oklahoma (8)
41 Nebraska (2)
39 Texas (13)
38 Penn State (9)
36 Auburn (6)
35 Alabama (3)
35 California (7)
34 Oregon (3)
33 Iowa (3)
32 Arizona State (5)
32 Virginia (6)
32 Michigan State (4)
32 Purdue (2)

Note who's on top? Note that there are 7 Big Ten teams listed in the top 25? I feel that this year's Buckeye team has as much talent as any in the past 10 and feel pretty confident the draft results will be similar over the next few years.

What about overall conference strength? Here's a listing by conference for the average number of picks by conference school in the last 10 years (total / number of teams in parenthesis):

33.3 SEC (400 / 12)
31.9 Big Ten (351 / 11)
30.3 ACC (364 / 12)
30.3 Pac 10 (303 / 10)
23.8 Big 12 (286 / 12)
18.4 Big East (147 / 8)
13.4 Mountain West (121 / 9)
9.1 WAC (82 / 9)
8.2 Conference USA (107 / 13)
5.2 Mid-American (67 / 13)
3.7 Sun Belt (26 / 7)

I do think the Big Ten has been down the last few years but the fact is that the Big Ten is second close behind the SEC over the last 10 years. Amazing! To hear the pundits talk you'd think we were no better than the MAC. It is true that the results in the bowl games have been bad over the same time period but I personally blame 3 things.

- Home field advantage - The worst was two years ago when Ohio State played LSU in the Sugar Bowl (New Orleans), Michigan played Florida in the Capital One Bowl (Orlando), Penn State played Texas A&M in the Alamo Bowl (San Antonio), and Illinois played USC in the Rose Bowl (Pasadena). Similar things happen almost every year.

- Matched against superior opponents - The fact that we travel so well means that we get more bowl games but also that we are match against higher ranked teams. Every year Vegas then sets the line so that we are usually underdogs but nobody recognizes this fact.

- Coaching philosophy - Big Ten teams have adopted a "play not to lose" philosophy that doesn't work well in bowl games. Just look at the Miami-Wisconsin game last night. There is no way it should have been that close.

Some may look at these three things as excuses and they are probably right. Still --- no one should dispute that Ohio State and the Big Ten are as talented as any team/conference in the country. The NFL certainly thinks so.

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