2010 Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs Oregon

Today Ohio State plays the Oregon Ducks in the Rose Bowl. Just wanted to post a few thoughts and predictions on the game.

Most pundits seem to think that Ohio State is severely outmatched in the game in terms of speed and it seems the experts are about 80-20% in favor of the Ducks. ESPN fan voting is about the same. My feeling is most of this is due to the Bucks past performance and I can't blame them. But the past is the past and let's look at the facts about this game to make a prediction.



Ohio State on Offense:

• OSU Offense Line vs Oregon Defense Line - Oregon has been very weak on defense all year long but they have experiences a few injuries. Still Ohio State's line has come together nicely during the last half of the season and I don't see how Oregon is going to hold up for 4 quarters against this unit. Advantage - OSU
• OSU WRs vs Oregon DBs - Both teams have underachieved all year. Oregon's DB's are healthy and OSU is down 2 starters. Even so, the talent of the remaining OSU players is higher than than Oregon. It all depends on how the replacements perform. Advantage - Even
• OSU Backfield vs Oregon D - Terrell Pryor is the key here. He has the talent to carry the team and Saine/Herron are a dynamic duo. Oregon has given up a bunch of points and if Pryor shows the maturity of the last month, limits his mistakes, and can hit a few passes this won't be close. Advantage - OSU

Oregon on Offense

• Oregon Offensive Line vs OSU Defensive Line - Oregon has played well on offense all year and the line play has been good. Ohio State has a truly special group that goes 2 deep with numerous players that will be in the NFL. The blocking scheme is a bit different than OSU usually sees but the talent is there on defense to adapt. Advantage - OSU
  
• Oregon WRs vs OSU DBs - The Buckeye defensive backfield has made many good plays but it is really dependant on the pressure generated from the front 7. Advantage - Oregon
  
• Oregon Backfield vs OSU D - Oregon has a great offense that tends to rely on the run. They won't be able to do that today as that is OSU's strength. This battle will come down to whether Masoli can make plays throwing the ball. Advantage - Even
  

Special Teams - Ohio State has lost their best return man, have injuries at the kicking position, and the worst punter in recent memory. I haven't researched Oregon's play in this area but this is definitely a weakness for Ohio State going into the game. Perhaps they will surprise me. Advantage - Oregon

Coaching - Both teams have great coaching staffs. I'm pretty sure that Oregon will continue the game plan of the past. The question is whether Ohio State is going to change and whether it will work. That is the key to the game. Advantage - Even

Prediction
This game is going to be highly dependent on which quarterback performs better. Oregon's team revolves around it's high powered offense and I think the game will be highly determed by the team that controls the trenches when Oregon has the ball. If Ohio State can stop the rushing attack and Masoli can't makes plays then it could get ugly. Pryor needs to limit his mistakes if the OSU defense can hold Masoli in check. If this doesn't happen then the game will be on his shoulders to make plays. He has the talent and has shown flashes but he hasn't taken over a game yet. He is as healthy as he has been since the start of the season and he could be a surprise.

I look for the Buckeyes to win in the trenches on both sides of the ball and I expect that Masoli won't be able to take advantage of the OSU secondary. Ohio State covers Oregon's strengths very well and I can't see how they lose unless the offense has numerous turnovers.

Final Score - Ohio State 31 - Oregon 17