The BCS is made up on three equal parts: The USA Today poll, the Harris poll, and the computer rankings. After last week the Buckeyes were ranked 7th in the human polls behind #1 Oregon, Auburn, Boise State, TCU, Wisconsin, and #6 LSU. All these teams either had a win or didn't play. While yesterday's win may get us a few more votes I seriously doubt we are going to move up from the #7 spot.
That means our only hope is the computer polls. After last week Ohio State was 13th in the computers while Wisconsin was 12th. Our overall difference in the BCS was .0584 (.7258 - .6674). That would mean we'd need to improve .1752 (.0584 x 3) more than Wisconsin in the computer rankings to pass them. The way the computer part of the BCS works it throws out the highest and lowest score than averages the rest. That number is then divided by 25. If you multiply .1752 by 25 you get 4.38. That means we need to move up 4.38 spots in the computer rankings to pass Wisconsin in the BCS.
Is this possible?
Looking at Sagarin's rating you see that we moved from 17th to 11th while Wisconsin went from 11th to 9th. That's an improvement of 4 spots. That's almost the kind of improvement we need but Sagarin's poll was the one with the biggest discrepancy between Wisconsin and Ohio State from last week (6). The rest had a difference of 2,5,2,-2-1. I just don't see how the numbers can add up any way for us to make up the difference from last week's results.
The one that that would help us immensely would be for LSU to lose next weekend. That would give us about .030 improvement from a bump in the human polls. Then all we'd need is our cumulative improvement to be .0852 or an improvement of 2.6 spots. That we definitely could do. In fact we might have done that this week. I didn't post this on the OZone as I want to see how the computer polls shake out tonight before posting anything definitive but it seems our only hope to goto Pasadena is in the hands of the Razorbacks against LSU.
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