Florida State has set off crazy expansion talk

Reports are that Florida State is a lock to join the Big 12 which has set many people on the internet to assume that the ACC is in play.  The reason is that it appears that the Big 4 (B12, P12, B1G, SEC) are making moves to set up a playoff where they are the only conferences involved.  That has made the teams in the ACC nervous and if that happens all the teams in that conference will be losing millions of dollars of revenue in an already strapped athletic department.  That has lead to a lot of speculation that additional teams will be leaving soon and other conferences will be picking over the scraps.

So what changes are likely?

Big 12 - currently at 10.  Most likely will be adding Louisville and Florida State.

That impacts the Big East because they gave an out to all their new teams if another existing member left which means Boise and San Diego State will most likely go back to the Mountain West.  Houston and SMU are up in the air but seem likely to stay in the Big East if it still exists.

ACC - If FSU leaves they will most likely go for Connecticut as a replacement unless 2 teams leave in which case they might just stay at 12.  12 teams is much easier to work with as a conference.

That is what is likely.  Many people feel there will be a seismic shift and expect the following as well.

- Notre Dame to join a conference.  Most likely the Big 12 but possibly the Big Ten.  I personally think the Irish would be silly to go anywhere but the Big Ten as it is a better fit but their fan base hates the idea and most feel they will raise enough havoc to keep them out of the B1G.

- The SEC will take a few ACC teams.  Everyone seems to think that 16 is the magic number which I dispute but if that happens the most obvious targets are Miami FL and Virginia Tech.  There's a lot of hurdles in the way of that happening.  The biggest are Florida and Virginia along with the state legislatures.  The thing is Miami is a private institution and I'd bet the Virginia legislature would it as a good move to goto the SEC.  Other possibles - Georgia Tech, West Virginia, and the Carolina schools.

- The Big Ten will expand.  I seriously doubt this will happen as very few schools could move the needle in sports but Notre Dame is an exception.  If that happens the new question is who can you pair with them.  

• Missouri was my favorite choice but that ship has sailed (I'd think).  
• You could look to schools like Kansas but the issue there is the schools have signed over their broadcasting rights to the conference for 15 years which makes any move really difficult.  
• There's always the Big East leftovers like Rutgers or Connecticut but I've always thought those were poor choices.

That leaves the ACC for the Big Ten.

• Maryland - too far but a great fit academically.
• Virginia Tech - If they don't goto the SEC it is a really good fit but academics a bit lacking
• Pitt - Not gonna happen
• Syracuse - Not gonna happen
• Boston College - Not gonna happen
• Virginia - Bad football but a great fit academically.

This got me to thinking about my old posts about possibilities when it looked like Delany's plan was to expand to 16.  What we didn't realize at the time is how tough it is going to be to attract a team that wouldn't cost us money.  It also reminded me that Notre Dame is essentially an undergraduate school and the academics in the league won't be happy with another school that doesn't push the needle in terms of research.  Who would do this?  Virginia and Maryland.

This is totally fantasyland and the fan base in the Big Ten would have to accept that we'd essentially become two separate leagues for reasons I've explained in the past (7 division game plus 2 non non-division is not good for cohesion).  Think about the league you'd get:

East
West
Ohio State
Notre Dame
Michigan
Nebraska
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Penn State
Iowa
Indiana
Purdue
Maryland
Illinois
Virginia Tech
Minnesota
Virginia Tech
Northwestern

Virginia Tech would be a great addition for football and Maryland/Virginia are top notch academic institutions (and with decent all around sports).  This would likely be a net loss to the conference (only add Virginia/Maryland/DC on basic) but a home run for the academic consortium.  I doubt it happens but it is fun to think about.

If that happens then the conference championships would essentially be the quarterfinals, the bowls a semi-final, and the BCS will be the 1 game championship.  While teams outside of the Big 4 could qualify for the semi's, it would be doubtful as the strength of schedule and voter bias would make it almost impossible.

That was the unstated goal of the commissioners meeting last month and it seems like they are on track to make it happen.  The only remaining question is what will happen to the teams in the ACC.