Thursday, June 21, 2012

The New College football playoff: Part 2 - Money split

One question that has been brought up about the playoff system is how will they split the money.  Estimate are that the payoff will more than double from the $200 million payout of last year.   Like with the bowl matchups there are a few goals here too.

Maximize the money that goes to the conferences that drive the ratings
Don't encourage schools to leave their conference just so they can get additional revenues from the playoff

There won't be a return to the system used in the 70s that the invitees are paid a certain amount as school budgets can't take that kind of uncertainty.  So there will be some sort of guarenteed payout but how to split it and keep most of it from the small guys?

The easy part is already done because they've already eliminated 3 BCS tie in's which will allow the major conferences to be invited to bowls that aren't in the semi's.  For example, I could see something like this:

Rose: Big Ten - Pac 12
Cotton: Big 12 - SEC
Sugar: SEC - ACC
Orange: Big 12 - ACC
Fiesta: Big Ten - Big 12

They could even add bowls to the mix like the Outback with lower payouts with the unwritten rule that if a school outside the top 5 conferences qualify, they'd play there.  That means all the monies from the bowls would be going to the big conferences.

What about the little guys?  They are being paid for their part in the championship process and most importantly the championship game itself.  Let's say of the total $400 million payout that half or $200 is coming from that game.  The question is how do you split that?  One proposal is to use BCS ranking since 1998 as a barometer.



This isn't a bad way but I doubt the Pac 12 / Big Ten will allow a system where they are paid less on a per team basis than their counterparts in the the south.  My guess is they will fix the number on a per team basis for the top 5 conferences for their league size in 2014.  That will discourage anyone from expanding just to expand.  The biggest issue is what to do about leauges like the Big East and Conference USA which shouldn't get a full share.  My suspicion is they will come up with a metric and give percentage based on their alignment in 2014.

A bigger question is BYU.  I'd expect Notre Dame to get something similar to what they get today.  $1-2 million each year plus a full share if they get invited.  BYU is a different case as they don't play well enough to get a full share but the makers of this system don't want to encourage other schools (Boise) to leave their league like BYU just so they get a bigger piece of the pie when the playoff method is finalized.  I'd expect language to fix a school to a conference and for BYU to get something similar to the Big East share.

In the end I'd expect 3 tier system something like this:

Payouts from the 5 bowls: $40 million each / $20 per team invited.
Payout from the Championship:



These are just estimates but it goes where I'd bet they are thinking.  In the end the big conferences end up with almost $360 million of the totall $400 and the small conferences get the scraps.

See what happens small schools when you try to steal the lunch money from a bigger kid?  I wish you luck trying to make it to the playoff as we all know voters are subjective and you know that all ties will favor the big guys.

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