Wednesday, January 3, 2018

A perfect playoff is almost in our grasp

This season shows us one more time that the college football playoff just isn't big enough.  The main cause is combination of 130 teams, all who have the ability to cherry pick their schedule and so we are left to eye test who should be in the final four.

The ideal number for a playoff is 6 as it gives you 1 team from each conference and a wildcard.  The thing is bye week's are stupid especially when you consider we really don't know who is really deserving.  I do understand the complaints of those that say expanding it that far will harm the regular season but 4 hasn't done that and neither will 8.  After that, I will join the ranks of that reject expanding the playoffs.  College football has the most important regular season of any American sport.  We can't lose that.

The process to get the teams is simple and I've kept my same idea for years as it is the only one that really could work.  The playoff is one week after the college football championship games.  The rules are simple.  The five conference champions get in - One 'Group of Five' team gets in if they are ranked in the top 15 - The remaining teams are pulled from the final College Football ranking - you have to be a conference champ to get home field in the first round.

This year would look like this:

UCF (12) at Clemson (1)
USC (8) at Oklahoma (2)
Wisconsin (6) at Georgia (3)
Alabama (4)  at Ohio State (5)

Clemson, Oklahoma, Georgia, Ohio State, and USC are conference champs.
Home field is assigned from this group based on final ranking.

UCF gets in because they are the top ranked group of five team.
Alabama and Wisconsin are the two highest ranked teams remaining.
Visiting teams assigned based on final ranking.

Under this system Auburn (7) gets left out and I'm sure there would be complaints as they'd beaten Alabama and crushed Georgia.  They have a valid argument but they'd lost in their conference playoff.  While Wisconsin did the same, the committee ranked them higher.  Bottom line - don't lose in the championship game.

Based on what we know from the bowl games these December matchups would have been fun to watch.  My picks are UCF, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Ohio State (call me a homer but the Buckeyes would have played Alabama at home in 20 degree weather).  Ohio State vs UCF would have been interesting but I'd pick the Buckeyes.  Georgia beat Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl setting up a Buckeye-Bulldog final.  I'd love to see that game.

Here's the playoff from 2016:

Western Michigan (15) at Alabama (1)
Oklahoma (7) at Clemson (2)
Michigan (6) at Washington (4)
Ohio State (3) at Penn State (5)

The biggest complaint here would be the rematch between OSU and Penn State.  Other than that it looks pretty standard.  I'd pick Alabama, Clemson, Washington, and Ohio State.  This happens to be the exact final four from that season and we know how it turned out.

Here's 2015:

Notre Dame (8) at Clemson (1)
Ohio State (7) at Alabama (2)
Stanford (6) at Michigan State (3)
Iowa (5) at Oklahoma (4)

This is a much more standard playoff though I'm sure there'd be a push to put Houston (18) in place of Notre Dame (8) for a Group of Five representative.  I'd pick Clemson, Ohio State, Stanford, and Oklahoma.  Clemson and Ohio State in the final and the Buckeyes to win it all.  That team was beastly though the first round matchup at Alabama would be a tough one.

Here's 2014:

Michigan State (8) at Alabama (1)
Mississippi State (7) at Oregon (2)
TCU (6) at Florida State (3)
Baylor (5) at Ohio State (4)

I'd pick the home teams to set up the eventual playoff we got though TCU might beat Florida State.

The question from critics of expansion is whether these games would hurt the regular season.  I think it wouldn't as these people are underrating the value of getting a home field game in the first round which means 1) the conference championship games are important and 2) finishing in the top 4 is important.  One unexpected loss in a conference championship game will scramble everything and fans from other leagues want to know their next opponent.

Let's use 2014 as an example.  Ohio State needed a convincing win vs Wisconsin to be ranked ahead of Baylor/TCU and get the home field.  They got it.  If they didn't they end up on the road at Baylor or Florida State.  But lets assume they somehow lost this game.  Here's the new matchup.

Wisconsin (10) at Alabama (1)
Michigan State (7) at Oregon (2)
Mississippi State (6) at Florida State (3)
TCU (5) at Baylor (4)

That's an entire new set of matchups with only one unexpected loss.  (I love some of these matchups - TCU and Baylor get a rematch to determine their conference champion plus Jameis vs Dak).  The final in this world would probably end up with Alabama and Oregon in the finals with Alabama winning.

You can do the same thing with any conference championship and most of the games at the end of the regular season.  This playoff wouldn't lessen the regular season it would enhance it.

The title of this article calls this a perfect playoff.  I realize there are still people that could complain but of the 4 seasons I reviewed only 1 has a real gripe (Auburn) and they lost in their championship game, which I consider part of the playoffs.

It would be great if we moved to a system like this but until then I will just be happy in my belief that there's an alternate universe where the Buckeyes have won 3 of the last 4 national championships. :P

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I had to do a couple more because it was fun to consider:

2013:

Central Florida (15) at Florida State (1)
Ohio State (7) at Auburn (2)
Baylor (6) at Michigan State (4)
Alabama (3) at Stanford (5)

This looks like a lot of fun.  Ohio State gets a shot at redemption after failing in the B1G championship game.  As punishment they have to face the SEC champs at home.  My picks - Florida State, Auburn, Michigan State, Alabama.  Same final game.

2012:

Wisconsin (NR) at Notre Dame (1)
Florida State (11) at Alabama (2)
Stanford (6) at Oregon (4)
Florida (2) at Kansas State (5)

This is one of those seasons that shows anything can happen.  Wisconsin was 4-4 in league play but due to NCAA violations neither Ohio State or Penn State could play in the B1G championship game.  Then Wisconsin beat Nebraska making them champions.  It probably would have been Notre Dame, Alabama, Oregon, Florida with Florida and Alabama in the final.  We would have ended up with the same result but with a lot more fun on the way.

2011:

Virginia Tech (11) at LSU (1)
Wisconsin (10) at Oklahoma State (3)
Oregon (5) at Stanford (4)
Alabama (2) at Boise State (7)

This year is a beautiful mess.  The group of Five representative is ranked higher than the B1G or ACC champs so they get the 4th home game.  Can you imagine the furor if #2 Alabama had to travel to Boise?  I'd love that.  The results most likely would be LSU, Oklahoma State, Oregon and Alabama with an Alabama - Oklahoma State final.  That was much better than the LSU-Alabama SEC lovefest we actually got.

2010:

Boise State (10) at Auburn (1)
Oklahoma (7) at Oregon (2)
Ohio State (6) at TCU (3)
Stanford (4) at Wisconsin (5)

This year was pretty straight forward.  The team on the bubble was Arkansas at 8.  It's been a while but I'd pick Auburn, Oregon, Ohio State, and Stanford.  Auburn and Oregon in the final with Auburn winning.  No one was beating Cam that year.

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