Anyone that watched the 1988 Olympics it was apparent that the United States could no longer send what was essentially a college all-star team to the games and expect to win the gold. Part of the issue was that some of the competition had the advantage of being able to play together 12 months a year while the US team was only able to train together for 2-3 months before the games. The thing was that the United States had faced this challenge since basketball was introduced to the Olympics in 1932 and overcome it. The cracks started forming in 1972 when the the infamous "3 seconds" were allowed back on the clock to give the US their first Olympic loss. Most American dismissed this as a fluke and this thought was reinforced when the 1976 team returned to form. Due to boycotts, the United States didn't play the best competition in the next two Olympics so 1988 was the next time most Americans saw the United States play the world's best competition. When the result was a bronze medal it was obvious to many that watched the game that the world was catching up to us and the call went out to let the world's best play. In 1989, FIBA decided to allow professional players at the next Olympics. The result was the 1992 United States "Dream Team" that was made up mainly of NBA all-stars. This team dominated the competition in a manner that hadn't been seen since the 60s and chants of "USA! USA! USA!" resounded into the Barcelona night. One thing that went mostly unnoticed was the quality play from professionals on European teams. Many NBA officials had gone to the games to follow their stars but came back with a better appreciation of the talent pool overseas.
The NBA was a small league throughout much of its history but grew quickly during the 60s and 70s. In 1965 the league only had 9 teams but expanded quickly going from 10 in 1966, to 12 in 1967, 14 in 1968, 17 in 1970 and finally 18 in 1974. League owners were quickly learning that demand for profession basketball in the United States was growing and they had a ready made minor league from American colleges who pumped out new talent every year that would fill out their rosters. This demand led to the formation of the ABA in 1967 whose 11 teams saturated a now very crowded market and was one of the reasons that they allowed Spencer Haywood into their league after two years of college. The ABA was one of the main reasons for the NBA's rapid expansion during this era which stunted the growth of the ABA and caused it to collapse. When that happened in 1976, 4 teams were added to the NBA bringing the total to 22. After a decade of rapid expansion the NBA were very careful over the next 12 years only adding the Dallas franchise in 1980. Many people that time period to be the golden era of NBA basketball as names like Bird, Isiah, Jordan, Erving, Magic, Jabbar, and Malone increased the popularity of the sport from coast to coast. In 1988 the owners of the NBA decided to cash in on that success by adding additional franchises which in turn would pay each of them cash from the large franchise fees they would charge the new owners. Over the next two years the Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Orlando Magic were added to the league. Play in the NBA slipped a bit during this time and many people complained that the NBA had gone too far in diluting the talent and the quality of play in the early 90s wasn't nearly as good as it was in the 80s. One of the offshoot of the financial success of the league during the 80s was that player's salaries grew many times the rate of inflation. In fact salaries grew from under $100k in the early 70s to over well over a $1.5 million in the early 90s. What had started as a moderate enterprise had grown into a cash hungry monster. All the owners were in desparate need of money during this time and with expansion being an easy quick fix another 2 teams were added in 1996 bringing the total to 29 teams that diluted the league even more.
That brings us to the saga of Kevin Garnett in 1995. He was an immensely gifted player that was equally good in the paint as he was from the 3 point line. He was an obviously bright young man but had failed to get a qualifying score on standardized tests. When it became obvious that he was going to have difficulty getting into college he attended a few NBA scouting camps where the executives looked longingly at his amazing combination of quick feet, long arms, and soft touch. Garnett soon declared himself eligible for the NBA draft and was eventually taken with the 5th pick by Minnesota. Garnett had a productive season and finished his first year as a 2nd team All-Rookie selection. His story had caught the imagination of all basketball fans some of whom were outraged that he went right to the NBA from high school while others were rooting for this underdog to succeed. While Garnett wasn't an All-Star his first year, his results were good enough that many people began to accept the possibility that a high schooler could make the jump straight to the pro's.
Move forward one year to 1996 and the NBA was faced with a serious shortage of talent. American colleges had always provided enough players in the past to support the NBA but in 1996 they had to needed to stock not only the existing teams but another 24 players for the new expansion teams. The league was already weakened from the last round of expansion they started looking in areas that had previously been unthinkable. Anyone that followed basketball overseas could see that the quality was continuing to improve while the NBA's dilution has caused it to decrease. Until 1996, only 2 players had ever been drafted from from outside the United States directly to the NBA. In 1996 5 players were taken drafted in the 1st round most notably Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Peja Stojaković. As is the custom in many European countries, most of these players had never attended college but instead joined professional leagues in their teens. American college players saw the success of Kevin Garnett, the NBA's sudden interest in European players that never went to college, and expanded NBA roster sizes. They had to be thinking something like,
"Why am I wasting my time in college when the increase in NBA salaries meant that I could get paid millions of dollars even if I sit on the bench."
Until 1996, only 3 freshmen had ever left college after one year to join the NBA. In 1996 2 freshman decided to make the leap (Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Stephon Marbury). College freshman weren't the only underclassmen to make the jump as 4 college sophomores (Allen Iverson, Antoine Walker, Lorenzen Wright, Samaki Walker) and 5 college juniors (Marcus Camby, Ray Allen, Erick Dampier, Vitaly Potapenko, and Dontae Jones) also declared for the draft. The most amazing thing was 9 of the first 10 picks were college Freshman, Sophomores, or Juniors. In this draft, the NBA told the youth of the world that they didn't care how old you were. They didn't care where you lived. They only cared if you had potential. If you had it they were willing to pay you a lot of money and the youth of the world listened.
There was one player in high school that was already paying attention. He had good grades and could have gotten into any school in the country. His name was Kobe Bryant and he along with fellow high schooler Jermaine O'Neal joined the rest of the trailblazers in the 1996 draft and were the 13th and 17th pick respectively. The seal was broken and a line formed behind these players for their opportunity to join the NBA as quickly as possible. The 1996 draft is considered one of the finest in NBA history as 10 of its players would go on to become all-stars. Interestingly, only 38% of the players were college seniors and of them only Steve Nash was ever an All-Star.
After 1996 everything changed. The following years the draft wasn't quite as dramatic but that was to be expected since many of the best college players had already left. High Schoolers became commonplace in the 1st round with with 28 drafted in the first round over the ten years from 1996 to 2005. Overseas players became even more prevalent with 44 of them taken in same time frame. Drafting a college senior became a rarity after 2000 as only 24% were drafted in the 1st round and of that only 12% were lottery picks.
Suddenly, the time honored tradition of senior laden draft classes was gone. It was caused by a combination of a rapid rise in NBA salaries, league expansion, and the influx of overseas players. Looking back the change was inevitable. It all came to a climax in 1996 and once that bubble burst there was no going back.
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