Previously the rumors were that the Pac 10 was looking at Utah and Colorado as additions to get to 12 teams. This was a smart move as it adds Salt Lake City and Denver to their television footprint and allows them to add a championship game in football. I think a 12 team conference is about perfect as it allows for a 8 game conference schedule and every school plays one another every 2 years. A 16 team conference is a bit trickier as its size means a less cohesive conference. The Pac 10 has always looked at itself as close knit family so why would they consider doing this?
While it is possible that the Pac 10 is pushing this, I don't think they are the instigating force. My feeling is this is being pushed by Texas or done to appease Texas. Why? That's easy -- the Big Ten's expansion means the Big 12 is likely to lose at least 1 school and most likely will lose 3 - Colorado, Nebraska, and Missouri. That would leave Texas with 4 choices in my opinion:
- Big Ten - Rumors have circulated that the Big Ten has informally approached Texas ever since they announced they were expanding in December 09. Most of the rumors also state the Big Ten would take Texas A&M make this happen.
- Pac 10 - Texas wanted in the Pac 10 back in the 90s and there is probably no conference that is a better fit academically, athletically, and culturally than the Pac 10. I say culturally because Texas would much rather ally themselves with a "western" conference than an eastern conference (Big Ten). The problem is distance as Washington is much further from Austin than State College PA.
- SEC - This would only be a possibility if Texas can't get into the Big Ten or Pac 10. Even then I think they'd prefer to remain independant rather than join the SEC. I'm sure the SEC likes their current structure they would jump at the chance to get Texas and would take 1-3 additional teams to even things out depending on who was available and what Texas wanted.
- Replace the teams and reform the Big 12 -- Texas could opt to stay in the league and add a few schools like SMU, New Mexico, and New Mexico State. The issue is the Big 12 is already a distant 5th of the BCS conferences and the loss of any team will significantly weaken it with no way to find a quality replacement.
Why would the Pac 10 do this? They currently have a big problem due to their time zone. Their games start 3 hours after the rest of the country and this is a big factor in negotiating television contracts. A move to get games into the Central Time zone is a shrewd move. In addition this move adds Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and Denver into their television footprint. One of the things I don't like a 16 team conference is the fact that teams won't face each other very often but that actually works better in this situation due to travel distance and historical rivalries. The new "Western Conference" league would easily split into a Southwest division (the 6 from the Big 12 and the Arizona teams) and Pacific division (the old Pac 8). It is easy to see a television network being formed around this conference that could eclipse the Big Ten and that has to excite everyone involved.
Currently the Big Ten is the market leader with their footprint of about 26.9 million households (disclaimer - this isn't a perfect science as I included Philadelphia which isn't 100% Penn State but excluded St Louis which has quite a few Big Ten fans). The Big 12 has about 16.4 million households of which a majority are in Texas. The Pac 10 is second to the Big Ten in terms of market size at a little over 18 million households (though the SEC/ACC aren't far behind). If you add the Texas (8.5m), Oklahoma (1.5m), and Colorado (1.9m) markets to the Pac 10 you'd end up with a league that would match up nicely with the Big Ten in terms of market power. That's a win on every level.
This makes so much sense for everyone involved I pretty much see this as an inevitability. The only thing that could change things is politics. Texas politics would revolve around Baylor but I seriously doubt they have enough political power to stop this if Texas and Texas A&M push it. On the national front, Orrin Hatch of Utah has been pushing for Congress to get involved as due to the inequities he sees in the current BCS system and further consolidation is likely to restart a battle on this front. An easy way to appease him is to replace Texas Tech with Utah as long as that works in Texas politically. In many ways, adding Utah makes a lot more sense than a 3rd Texas team. Texas needs the Pac 10 a lot more than the Pac 10 needs Texas. The Pac 10 likes to have matching schools (Arizona-ArizSt, Oregon-OreSt, Washington-WashSt, USC-UCLA, Stanford-Cal). Texas-Texas A&M and Oklahoma-OklaSt fit that mold perfectly. Colorado would fit much better with Utah than with Texas Tech and this would have the additional benefit of adding the Utah/Salt Lake City television markets (1 million+ households).
One factor some forget is the Pac 10 requires 100% agreement from its member schools to add more teams. That isn't a slam dunk as Stanford stopped Texas from joining back in the 90s. It will be interesting to see how they and Cal respond this time around. I doubt any other school other than possibly the Arizona schools having an issue with this proposal.
The interesting thing from this development is what it means to the Big Ten. I'd be surprised if they didn't meet with Texas officials in an secret manner to find if there is any way they could be persuaded to join the Big Ten. If there is no way this is going to happen then I'm sure the Plains teams left out (Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State) will approach the conference for a quicker decision as they are going to be left without a home when this is finalized. In the end this will probably mean that Nebraska and Missouri will be added to the Big Ten and the rest will be looking to the WAC, etc to find a home.
One thing is for sure ... this got even more interesting.
Rereading this a few months later I still feel what I wrote is correct. While it is possible that Texas comes to the Big Ten I expect them to go to the Pac 10. The interesting thing is going to see who is left out. Texas and Oklahoma are pretty much a given. aTm will go to either the SEC or Pac 10. That leaves Baylor, Okla St and Texas Tech for 1-2 spots. My guess is aTm will go east and Tech and Okla State will go west. Baylor will be left with Kansas, KSU, Iowa State and Missour looking for a new home.
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