Last week it appeared the college football world was going to come apart. Now it appears more like the Cuban Missile crisis. We went to the brink but no nukes were fired.
I wrote an article last week that expected a multi part process. I expect Nebraska to goto the Big Ten alone part correct but didn't foresee the Pac 10's invite to Colorado. I also didn't expect Texas A&M to be so opposed to going to the Pac 10. We are now in a situation where the Big 10 has a new member in Nebraska, the Pac 10 has a new member in Colorado, and the Big 12 now is a conference on 10 teams with a new TV deal. Sounds like winners all around.
Not really.
Big Ten - You have to be happy to add a school like Nebraska to your conference. It doesn't do much in terms of adding population centers but the Cornhuskers have a national following and are a good addition to "game inventory". I think I'm pretty much still correct with my predictions with a few exceptions. I do believe that Missouri will still end up in the Big Ten but the timing depends on Notre Dame and Texas's decisions. I also believe the Big Ten will ultimately expand east to get a total of 16 teams. I'd be surprised if Texas ends up in the league but feel Notre Dame will ultimately join.
Pac 10 - Added Colorado which isn't a great football school but a great move since they now have the Denver market. They could stay at 11 like the Big Ten did for years but I expect them to make a move on Utah in the next few months.
Big 12 - Now has 10 teams but with a TV contract on par with the other BCS divisions. I'm still a little unsure of how ESPN was able to get a deal together to pay these teams $17 million a year but it's great for the conference. The problem is threefold -- 1) Divisions have been created in this league that will take decades to heal, 2) if the Pac 10 adds a 12th team such as Utah, the Big 12 can't get as good of a deal from the Pac 10 that they just turned down. 3) it is only a matter of time before the Big Ten/SEC make a play for Missouri/Texas A&M again which will kill the league.
The winner in this first round is a tie between the Big Ten and Pac 10. They both got something they wanted. I think Texas/Big Tw1el0ve just delayed the inevitable.
My previous post broke the process down into an "8 week" process. I never expected it to take 8 weeks but more like 8 steps. I didn't expect the Big 12 South to turn down the Pac 10 invite so my Big 10 expansion timeline hit a snag at "Week 2". This is what I foresee from here on out.
Step 1 - Utah goes to the Pac 10. Nobody cares.
Step 2 - Something sets off the Big 12 again. Most likely it would be Missouri to the SEC/Big 10 or Texas A&M to the SEC. While I'm not sure if the SEC is looking to be a catalyst, the craftiest move might be to start talks with Missouri. That would force the Big Ten to respond as I still believe they really want MU but are waiting for Notre Dame/Texas situations to crystalize. As the Big 12 goes through Apocalypse part 2, the SEC would sweep in and get A&M. The only think I don't know/understand is if the new TV deal has a large penalty for leaving. If so that may force the Big Ten/SEC to act a lot faster (weeks not months/years)
Step 3 - The remaining members of the Big 12 South move goto the Pac 10 (without Baylor)
Step 4 - Would mirror what I said in Week 3 - 8 in my previous post. In other words this will play out with the exception that A&M ends up in the SEC and Texas Tech is invited to the Pac 10.
The funny thing is the latest developments make it more possible for Texas to come to the Big Ten. Some see this as proof that Jim Delany is a puppet master controlling the whole process. I'd like to think this is true but honestly I think he is just a smart man that is forcing a few things (expansion talks) but reacting to others (Pac 10 offer/Big 12 ultimatum). It is a mistake to think that this whole thing is preplanned. There are too many moving parts for one person to control.
The big question is -- Now that we've reached "peace in our time", what event will set off the next round and how long is it going to take? I don't pretend to know the what but it wouldn't surprise me if the Big Ten had to move up their 12-18 month expansion timeline once again.
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