Expansion One Week Later

I think this may be my last expansion post for a bit but I want to quickly look at the aftermath one week since the announcement.  The best part of the last week is reading all the comments about the winners and losers and not one of them agreeing with one another.  You can read articles that show the Big 12 from an A grade to to D grade and the same goes for every one else.  Here is actually what happened:

• Colorado moved from the Big 12 to the Pac 10
• Nebraska moved from the Big 12 to the Big Ten
• Boise State moved from the WAC to the Mountain West
• Utah moved from the Mountain West to the Pac 10

So in essence, the Big Ten picked up Nebraska, the Pac 10 picked up Utah and Colorado, the Mountain West traded Utah for Boise State, the WAC lost Boise St, and the Big 12 lost both Colorado and Nebraska. 

When grading conferences, the only way to do it is to assume a C grade is average or no improvement.  Anything higher means the conference improved itself.  Anything lower means a conference is worse off than before.

Pac 10 (B) - The Pac 10 added two teams that have been ranked 46th and 41st over the past decade.  The average in the Pac 10 is about 22nd and the median is about 32nd.  So these additions will actually decrease the quality of play from a pure football standpoint.  I would make the argument that these two schools have shown flashes of greatness in the past so it is possible they will improve by facing superior competition.  But the bottom line is that the the Pac 10 actual got worse by adding these two teams (C-).  The flip side is there were only two large population centers in the west that the Pac 10 didn't cover - Denver (16th) and Salt Lake City (31st).  By adding these two schools Colorado and Utah are now in their footprint if they decide to create a Pac 10 network similar to the Big Ten.  This is a very shrewd move from a financial standpoint (A).  Looking at the intangibles of the fit from a geographic and support standpoint, I'd give it a B+ making the overall grade a solid B.

Mountain West (D+)- From a football standpoint they added a team ranked 69th over the past decade and lost a team ranked 41st (D).   They added the 112th ranked TV market and lost the 31st (D).  Intangibly, Boise is only close to Wyoming while the rest of the conference is located much further south.  They have set themselves up as the goto conference if the Big 12 ever break up so they do have that on their side (C+)

Big Ten (B+) - Added the 17th best team in the country over the past 10 years which is better than the average team (22nd) and the median (18th) (B+).  On the other hand, Nebraska brings the 76th, 107th, and 197th largest television markets which isn't very impressive.  The odd thing about Nebraska is they current have the longest string of sellouts in the country in the 16th largest stadium (304 and counting since 1962).  They also get much higher TV ratings than their small market would indicate meaning they have the ability to draw a national audience (C).  As for fit, I can't think of a school with a better Big Ten type mentality than Nebraska and think they will integrate much easier into the league than Penn State (which still struggles) (A).

Big 12 (D) - Lost the 17th and 46th ranked teams in the country.  The average team in the Big 12 is ranked 38th while the median is about 48th.  No doubt that the quality of play got worse with these defections (D).  The league lost one of national draws (Nebraska) and its biggest market outside of Texas (Denver) (D).  The league is now more cohesive in its geography but the way Texas extorted the Big 12 North did little to create a firm foundation for the future (D).

In summary, I feel the Big Ten "won" this round of additions though the Pac 10 was a close second.  The Big 12 was the clear loser and are set up for a fall.  One comment I haven't seen anywhere is if there is another round of expansion, the Big 12 has much less power than it did before.  Since this all centers on Texas let's look at their options:

• Pac 10 - The addition of Utah to the Pac 10 means that Texas can only bring 4 teams with it if it decides to go West.  That means Oklahoma State or Texas Tech will be left out assuming A&M wants to go west (big assumption).
• Big Ten - If they want to come to the Big Ten, the only possibilities will be with A&M and Missouri.
• SEC - I'd be shocked if this every happened but they would be faced with a similar choice as with Pac 10.  This could be complicated as I'd be shocked if the SEC didn't want Missouri in the mix if the Big Ten doesn't take them.

In other words, unless Texas can get the Big 12 to work, they are going to forced to go to a league with much less pull than they have today.

The next round of expansion will happen when the Big Ten decides on their next teams.  I am pretty sure that they want to add Missouri and think they may have made some private assurances to the leadership at that school to that fact.  The thing is Missouri is much more effective to help the Big Ten today by not being in the league.  There will be continued talks with Texas and Delany will hold the Missouri axe over their head as an incentive that they could drop at any time.  Losing Missouri would pretty much kill the league as it would be essentially a Texas only league with little hope for a decent national contract (that is pretty much true today - just more so if Missouri leaves which will lessen the Big 12's hold on the Kansas City/St Louis markets).  Unless Texas could create a local network that could support them they will be forced to go to another conference as their league is not very attractive for the national networks.

As for Notre Dame, they know a similar scenario is in play for the Big East.  The Big Ten is going to take their time and use continued pressure to get their top targets of Texas and Notre Dame.  In a perfect world they'd love to get Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, and Notre Dame.  If Texas decides not to come they will end up with something like Missouri, Notre Dame, and two schools from the East (Maryland, Rutgers, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Virginia).

My best guess is Texas will ultimately turn the Big Ten down and go to the Pac 10 with Texas Tech, Oklahoma St, and Oklahoma.  Texas A&M will end up in the SEC who will also add a few stragglers from the Big East.  The Big Ten will add Missouri, Notre Dame, Rutgers and Pittsburgh.  The Big 12 and Big East will cease to exist and the Big 4 BCS conferences will have a "plus one" game at the end of the year to determine the national champion.  The non-BCS conferences will be thrown a bone that if they are ranked in the top 4 they will get an invite over the lowest ranked BCS conference champion.  Of course due to strength of schedule they will never see an invite but they will get an invite to one of the other BCS bowls as a consolation (which will be little more than a payday).