Expansion prediction

Even though the Big Ten has said they don't plan to do anything for another 12 months it seems likely that something is going to happen in the next week.  It is looking increasingly likely that the expansion is going to happen in stages instead of one announcement from the Big Ten.  This is the timeline I see.



Week 1 - Nebraska and Jim Delany have a joint press conference to announce they have applied to the Big Ten and have been accepted for the 2012 school year.  A standing offer has been made to Notre Dame but they are silent on the issue.

Week 2  - Talks occur between the Big 12, the Pac 10, and the Big 12 (i.e. - Texas).  Afterwards Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Colorado, and Texas Tech all apply to the Pac 10 for admission.

Week 3 - The Big Ten makes an offer to Missouri to join their conference.  Notre Dame makes a statement that the changing atmosphere in college football may limit their ability to remain independent.

Week 4 - Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State announce they are joining the Mountain West as does Boise State.  Baylor applies for Conference USA.

Week 5 - The Pac 10 presidents meet but Stanford surprises everyone by voting no on Texas Tech.  Politicians in Texas are livid as meetings occur between Texas and the leaders of the Pac 10.

Week 6 - Rutgers and Syracuse have a joint press conference with Jim Delany to announce they are leaving the Big East for the Big Ten.

Week 7 - Utah applies to join the Pac 10.  Texas makes a statement that they can't force the Pac 10 to include Texas Tech but it is still in their best interest to join.

Week 8 - Notre Dame has a press conference announcing that due to recent events they feel it is in their best interest to join the Big Ten.  Texas Tech announces they are joining Conference USA.  Louisville and Cincinnati join Conference USA.

I'm sure this won't be an 8 week process and I will look back at this when everything is done and think --- man was I wrong.  One thing I do admit is this is probably a bit emotionally driven as I just don't like Texas Tech in the Pac 10.  The thing that I want to show is while at one time I thought the Big Ten expansion would be an announcement with 5 teams, I now see a 3 part process.  This is because the Big Ten wants to give Texas every opportunity to join but they have to accept Nebraska first to force the issue.  It is possible they take Missouri at the same time but not a slam dunk.  They don't want to wait because if they do, Texas will go to the Pac 10 with no discussion with the Big Ten.  Ultimately however I think it is in Texas best interest to goto the Pac 10 as they can offer more.  At that point the Big Ten will turn east and raid the Big East.  That will cause the collaspe of that conference forcing Notre Dame to join the Big Ten.

The home run targets of this expansion are Texas and Notre Dame.  To get them the Big Ten is going to force the process with gradual invitations.  If neither join I'm sure the Big Ten would be perfectly happy with Nebraska, Missouri, Syracuse, Rutgers, and a fifth team.   While they'd love for that team to be Notre Dame I could easily see UConn, Maryland, Pitt, Kansas, or Virginia in that spot.  Only time will tell if I'm even close.